February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we may see some small breaks in the clouds. That might get us to above freezing this afternoon, but I still think the chances of that are small.

The clouds are moving in rather quickly. I feel comfortable that we will not get above freezing across the Northern half of the region. 19.4F here at this time.

[ronyan]

Low temperature this morning was 23.9 F. It's now only 25.3 F.

[Wendy 90]

Flurries in the air in College Station. It's ever so slight, but they were there when I left the gym this morning.

[Mr. T]

Whatever 'banding' that is so clearly shown from the 'dynamics' on the NAM, they happen East of here, verbatim.

Its just the NAM. Its been the driest of the models, and I'm just reporting what it shows, and it shows an unimpressive inch of not very well developed crystals.

Don't be hating the messenger. I don't think the NWS was talking about the NAM. The wettest model has been the Canadian, and the Euro has been decent as well.

And I'm discussing the NAM because its the first model out.

We'll be eagerly awaiting your analysis of the GFS

[srainhoutx]

Whatever 'banding' that is so clearly shown from the 'dynamics' on the NAM, they happen East of here, verbatim.

Its just the NAM. Its been the driest of the models, and I'm just reporting what it shows, and it shows an unimpressive inch of not very well developed crystals.

Don't be hating the messenger. I don't think the NWS was talking about the NAM. The wettest model has been the Canadian, and the Euro has been decent as well.

And I'm discussing the NAM because its the first model out.

We'll be eagerly awaiting your analysis of the GFS

Perhaps Fred Gossage will join in...

[southerngale]

My friend at HGX texted me the following:

"I will issue a Winter Storm Watch for the entire CWA this afternoon if and only if the surrounding offices pull the trigger with me."

NWS LCH is being very conservative, IMO, so good luck with that. They have been much too warm so far as well.

Last night's forecast low was 24° and it got to 18° and currently sitting at 19°. What bugged me is they didn't even lower the forecast lows in their evening update when we were already below the forecast low. Local TV stations adjusted their lows for the 10pm news because the area was already below, or near, the original ones.

NWS LCH has today's high as 41°. Perhaps they'll be right, but I have my doubts about it getting that high.

[TexasMetBlake]

Whatever 'banding' that is so clearly shown from the 'dynamics' on the NAM, they happen East of here, verbatim.

Its just the NAM. Its been the driest of the models, and I'm just reporting what it shows, and it shows an unimpressive inch of not very well developed crystals.

Don't be hating the messenger. I don't think the NWS was talking about the NAM. The wettest model has been the Canadian, and the Euro has been decent as well.

And I'm discussing the NAM because its the first model out.

We'll be eagerly awaiting your analysis of the GFS

[TexasMetBlake]

My friend at HGX texted me the following:

"I will issue a Winter Storm Watch for the entire CWA this afternoon if and only if the surrounding offices pull the trigger with me."

NWS LCH is being very conservative, IMO, so good luck with that. They have been much too warm so far as well.

Last night's forecast low was 24° and it got to 18° and currently sitting at 19°. What bugged me is they didn't even lower the forecast lows in their evening update when we were already below the forecast low. Local TV stations adjusted their lows for the 10pm news because the area was already below, or near, the original ones.

NWS LCH has today's high as 41°. Perhaps they'll be right, but I have my doubts about it getting that high.

He was referring to Austin and Corpus I believe.

[tireman4]

Candy Cane,

So why wait until the other "pull the trigger"? Do they not have their (HGX) information to go on? Maybe I am dense on this Wednesday morning.

[TexasMetBlake]

Candy Cane,

So why wait until the other "pull the trigger"? Do they not have their (HGX) information to go on? Maybe I am dense on this Wednesday morning.

Mainly because of timing. They are not obligated to issue a watch until Thursday morning. They were thinking of doing it early to give people a chance to prepare. The hold is NOT because of uncertainty in the snowfall forecast. It will snow.

[Baseballdude2915]

NWS still giving me 1-2 inches for thursday night and 1-2 additional inches for Friday.
Bold forecast, a WSA makes since if they have numbers that high. But i dont expect half that amount of snow.

[southerngale]

He was referring to Austin and Corpus I believe.

Ah, ok. I know that HOU and LCH coordinate often, so I assumed he meant LCH as well.

[tireman4]

Candy Cane,

So why wait until the other "pull the trigger"? Do they not have their (HGX) information to go on? Maybe I am dense on this Wednesday morning.

Mainly because of timing. They are not obligated to issue a watch until Thursday morning. They were thinking of doing it early to give people a chance to prepare. The hold is NOT because of uncertainty in the snowfall forecast. It will snow.

Ahh...that is what I was thinking. I was thinking they would hold off until Thursday morning...

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian short range RGEM suggests snow across Houston area...

[djmike]

Great map on HAMweather.com

http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/weather ... hr/us.html

[redneckweather]

Boy howdy, this has got to be our colderst airmass since '89! Weatherbug has me at 16.1 degrees this morning with the wind chill waffling back between -3 to 3 above zero! I'm loving it! It's now a warm 18 degrees with wind chills coming in between 3 to 8 above zero. If clouds stay in place, I don't see us getting out of the mid 20's where I am.

[Portastorm]

Sitting at 18 degrees at the Portastorm Weather Center in SW Austin under a thickening (cold) blanket of clouds. Rolling blackouts across the city here creating some traffic havoc not to mention the inconveniences of getting ready for work in the dark. Electricity, it's a beautiful thing when you have it.

NWS says 1/2 to 3/4 inch of snow only for AUS by Friday afternoon. Hope they're underestimating. 6z model trends are hopeful.

[TexasBreeze]

Oh I thought the timing was 48 hours in advance. I saw the Thurs morning reference in the statement they issued.

[tireman4]

I was under the belief that is was 36-48 hours out....but I could be wrong ( Timing on Watches and Warnings from the NWS)

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at Impact Weather have updated their video just now. Enjoy...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather