February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[txsnowmaker]

I wouldn't worry about temps being too warm to support snow around here late Thursday and into Friday.

[Mr. T]

I wouldn't worry about temps being too warm to support snow around here late Thursday and into Friday.

I'm not either. Don't think the cold dome of arctic air overhead would erode quite that much as the CMC shows

There will be a bit of a warm air intrusion as the upper low winds up to our west, but probably not as much as the CMC shows

[Mr. T]

IAH down to 25 btw

[Mr. Weather]

its looking like the chances of SE Houston's chances of accumulation are going down to me is this true

[txsnowmaker]

***UPDATE***

My source at HGX says:

Winter Storm Watch for the entire CWA as early as midnight tonight or as late as Thursday morning.

Heaviest snow from I-10 north

THUNDER snow possible

Significant problems with driving on Friday.

Temps have been lowered...especially north.

Interesting. Thanks Candy Cane. I am assuming they would want to digest all model runs before making a decision--will the Euro runs through Friday be out by midnight?

[Andrew]

24H Temp Change:

[HouTXmetro]

its looking like the chances of SE Houston's chances of accumulation are going down to me is this true

What makes you think it's going down? Just because they said the northern area's will get more snow doesn't mean that you won't get a lot. Everything is relative.

[TexasMetBlake]

Geez, nothing is set in stone yet. It was ONE model run that came back a bit lighter. So what. There is no doubt in my mind that the low won't find the moisture and the air is SUFFICIENTLY cold enough to support snow...north of Downtown. if you are south of downtown, it appears it'll start off as sleet/freezing rain then change over later.

[Mr. Weather]

its looking like the chances of SE Houston's chances of accumulation are going down to me is this true

What makes you think it's going down? Just because they said the northern area's will get more snow doesn't mean that you won't get a lot. Everything is relative.

i was looking at the nws website and earlier they had us with snow and possible 1 inch accumulation just for Thursday and 1-2 inches for Friday now they just have sleet with snow after midnight for Thursday with little to no accumulation and on Friday less than 1 inch so i was just wondering if something had changed to make them change it

[southerngale]

its looking like the chances of SE Houston's chances of accumulation are going down to me is this true

What makes you think it's going down? Just because they said the northern area's will get more snow doesn't mean that you won't get a lot. Everything is relative.

i was looking at the nws website and earlier they had us with snow and possible 1 inch accumulation just for Thursday and 1-2 inches for Friday now they just have sleet with snow after midnight for Thursday with little to no accumulation and on Friday less than 1 inch so i was just wondering if something had changed to make them change it

I could be wrong, but maybe earlier you were looking at a zone forecast, which was general to your county. Now the point forecasts are back up and more detailed to your specific area. Trends have been good today, if you want snow.

[vci_guy2003]

Just checked NOAA.gov and nothing has changed.. Same as before

[TexasMetBlake]

I'm not complaining. You guys got slammed south of I-10 in 2004...on Christmas no less. How special is that?! It's only fair that areas north of I-10 get it this time. Let there be no mistake, I think EVERYBODY...that's EVERYBODY...in the CWA will see ice/snow. Areas north of I-10 will be all snow. Areas south could start off as frz rain and sleet but then transition. Just cool your heels, peeps.

[Mr. Weather]

I could be wrong, but maybe earlier you were looking at a zone forecast, which was general to your county. Now the point forecasts are back up and more detailed to your specific area. Trends have been good today, if you want snow.[/quote]


thats right i didnt even click that they where differnt sorry about that well hopefully the good trend continues for everyone !!!

[Andrew]

I'm not complaining. You guys got slammed south of I-10 in 2004...on Christmas no less. How special is that?! It's only fair that areas north of I-10 get it this time. Let there be no mistake, I think EVERYBODY...that's EVERYBODY...in the CWA will see ice/snow. Areas north of I-10 will be all snow. Areas south could start off as frz rain and sleet but then transition. Just cool your heels, peeps.

Funny thing CMC starts out as snow then to FR/SL then goes back to snow. Has moisture in the area from 36H- 84H

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

[txsnowmaker]

I'm not complaining. You guys got slammed south of I-10 in 2004...on Christmas no less. How special is that?! It's only fair that areas north of I-10 get it this time. Let there be no mistake, I think EVERYBODY...that's EVERYBODY...in the CWA will see ice/snow. Areas north of I-10 will be all snow. Areas south could start off as frz rain and sleet but then transition. Just cool your heels, peeps.

Yes. I was one of those who saw only a trace in 2004. However, I am south of I-10, albeit only by about two miles. Hopefully this is close enough to the magic I-10 north line if that is how this plays out. Like you said, everyone should see something.

[HouTXmetro]

Geez, nothing is set in stone yet. It was ONE model run that came back a bit lighter. So what. There is no doubt in my mind that the low won't find the moisture and the air is SUFFICIENTLY cold enough to support snow...north of Downtown. if you are south of downtown, it appears it'll start off as sleet/freezing rain then change over later.

I guess that depends on how far south of downtown you are. NWS is predicting ALL snow for Hobby airport as right now. Of course that could change. But areas well south (like Galveston County) it should be a mix. I would also add that they will get in on the action earlier.

[TexasMetBlake]

I drive 42 miles to work every single day. I am quite concerned about making it there on Friday. The work that I do, you HAVE to go. It's like the postal service.

[txsnowmaker]

I drive 42 miles to work every single day. I am quite concerned about making it there on Friday. The work that I do, you HAVE to go. It's like the postal service.

Any indications from your friend at HGX as to whether a winter storm watch might be issued tonight?

[Andrew]

Euro has -6C 2m temp for us tomm morning but that might still be to high (IAH)

[C2G]

It's important to remember that these snowfall amounts are NOT set in stone.
Don't recall the NWS predicting the incredible snowfall amounts received in the 2004 Christmas Eve miracle snow.
What about the 08 Dec 10th event? Does anyone recall the NWS predicting the incredible amounts received in Pasadena/Deer Park area?
I will give them credit in the snow amounts for the 09 Dec 4th event.

NWS Houston/Galveston

At this point...it's important to understand the forecast is susceptible
to substantial quantitative precipitation forecast changes...type and where the higher amount
will occur. Although the highest avail moisture is nearest the
coast and southeast areas...the upper low/vorticity looks like it'll take a
more nearly track than we saw xmas evening 2004 hence took the higher
amounts a little further north than previous forecast.


Brief "warmup" over the weekend followed by another Arctic front
Monday (gfs) or Tuesday (ecmwf).