Significant accumulations of snow expected on Tuesday/Tuesday night over the area.
Winter Storm Warning issued for Tuesday: Brazos, Burleson, Madison, Houston, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, Grimes, Montgomery, Walker
Winter Weather Advisory issued from 200pm Tuesday to 600am Wednesday: Harris, Austin, Colorado, Fort Bend, Liberty, Waller, Wharton
Discussion:
Overall consensus today has been to push the snowfall and accumulations southward which now brings Harris County more under the threat for accumulations. Models are still hammering away at some fairly hefty banding features over the northern ½ to 1/3 of the area and feel some surprisingly high totals may be had in the area bounded by College Station to Livingston. Will likely also see snow all the way to the coast mixed with the rain Tuesday night.
Will start to see accumulations by mid morning Tuesday up north and then spread southward during the day on Tuesday. Will see rain start to mix and change to snow from NW to SE during the afternoon on Tuesday with many areas having all snow by Tuesday evening. Ground temperatures are warm and some of the snow will melt on impact. Heavy snow bands will help mitigate the warm ground allowing for quick accumulations over our northern counties. Additionally, as surface temperatures fall toward and to freezing Tuesday evening greater accumulation and formation of glazing of area bridges/overpasses appears likely. Would like to see lower dewpoints for IAH on Tuesday to support accumulations, but it looks close enough especially if moderate/heavy snow falls for some quick accumulation even with surface temperatures above freezing…similar to Dec 4, 2009.
Accumulations:
College Station to Livingston northward:
Accumulations of 2-4” with higher amounts (6+” possible).
Columbus to The Woodlands to Humble northward:
Accumulations of 1-3” with isolated amounts to up 4 inches
Katy to downtown Houston to Liberty northward:
Accumulations of .5-1”
Sugar Land to Pearland to High Island northward:
A dusting to ½ inch of accumulation.
South and West of Sugar Land to High Island:
Snow will mix with the rain, but no accumulation is expected
lol
I suggested all if this, verbatim, this morning at sunrise right here in this forum. But what do I know... I'm not a "pro"..
Muhahaha
Enjoy this extra fun event folks. It is coming no matter what you might be hearing from some of the locals. Jeff's post here is right on target. Watch for even bigger news for our entire area as the evening progresses. Some of you should get your cameras ready to take photos of the impossible. If this all pans out like it looks like it will, it will look like many native houstonians have never seen. We are still several hours out, folks, so we still need to keep in mind that this, even at this hour, us a story unfolding. We have to accept the fact that anything is up for grabs for a few more hours. Late tonight, to EARLY Tuesday morning is when we should be able to put a seal of approval on the where and when.
Last edited by biggerbyte on Mon Feb 22, 2010 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The coastal is a bit closer to Galveston this run as well. H5 Vort appears to pass right over the Middle/Upper TX Coast.
While they would mean better lift and more moisture, wouldnt that also mean warmer temps?
If the guidance is correct, the cold air in the Upper levels will already have cooled. The coastal and H5 are almost in tandem after the precip as ended. The surface low is developing between Tampico and Brownsville. The track of that feature should be more easterly IMHO. Take a look at the Upper flow via WV across the GOM.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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jabcwb2 wrote:I am getting soooooo excited!!!! My son arrives from Iraq today. We are celebrating Christmas on Wednesday with him!!!!!!!!! Could almost be a white Christmas for him! How awesome is that?
I have a question if someone does not mind answering it for me...while I am not trying to knock what I have read on a weather website, can someone tell me if the snow could possibly start for my area before midnight as that is when it says my area (Santa Fe/Texas City have excited family members in both cities lol) I know we aren't expected to have an accumulation but I would like for the kiddos to get to see it thanks all
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
A very good discussion for Lake Charles and well worth the read...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
318 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
THE CANADIAN FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A GREAT PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH TEXAS IN WAKE OF DEPARTED FRONT.
THE CANADIAN FRONT WILL SLOW TO A HALT NEAR THE MIDSECTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURES WILL FALL ON THE STALLED FRONTAL SURFACE
VICINITY BROWNSVILLE. A GULF LOW ENSUES...WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES
-IN-PRESSURE AND CONSEQUENT BLUE NORTHERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
FURTHER-UP...A LOW-INDEX WAVE PATTERN DESCRIBES THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...A RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL EMANATE OUT OF THE GRAND CANYON AREA...BEFORE
ROTATING EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE DISTINCT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
WILL BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY TUESDAY...THE SOUTH-TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE CELL...LOOSELY CONTAINED
WITHIN THE MORE EXTENSIVE GREAT PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...
WILL SEPARATE EASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST-LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS
BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS (ITS ASSOCIATED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION) ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH-PRESSURE CELL WILL CARRY GULF AIR
POLEWARD. THE RETURNING GULF AIR SATURATES UPON UPSLIDING THE
CANADIAN AIR. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM IS SETTING UP.
THE TRAVELING GRAND CANYON SHORTWAVE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENT THE
GENTLE LIFT ATTENDING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. AN OVERRUNNING RAIN
SCENARIO WILL FOLLOW...WITH CHILLY RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
AIR MASS.
BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE ONGOING RAIN WILL WET-BULB COOL THE SURFACE
LAYER...INITIATING A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. A CRITICAL VARIABLE
EXAMINED IN ASSESSING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
ICE MULTIPLICATION (OR SPLINTERING) PROCESS.
THE SPLINTERING ZONE (A SATURATED LAYER WITH WET BULBS AROUND MINUS
4 DEG C...PLUS/MINUS 3 C DEG) IS BEST REVEALED IN THE SATURATED
850-700 PARTIAL THICKNESS LAYER. MESO-SYNOPTIC LIFT (ATTENDING THE
GRAND-CANYON SHORTWAVE) WILL GREATLY AID IN THE ICE MULTIPLICATION
PROCESS. RISING SUPER-COOLED LIQUID WATER DROPS WILL COLLIDE WITH
RIMING ICE HABITS WHICH FREE FALL THROUGH A SUBFREEZING ATMOSPHERE
...AND SPLINTER. THE NUMBER OF ICE PARTICLES GREATLY INCREASES...ITS
CHANCES OF REACHING THE NEAR FREEZING GROUND INCREASES AS WELL.
THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW MAY REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
AT PRESENT...BELIEVE THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE PINEY HILLS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
HOWEVER...REMAIN UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Jabcwb2, I am grateful for your son's courageous and loyal service to our country, and also for the sacrifices that you and all the military families have made. God bless you all, and I hope your family has the whitest Christmas celebration you have ever had in Houston!
just wondering..ppl on here like wxman 57 and jeff linder ect r saying snow mixed with rain at the coast and we have a good chance at seeing it fall but melting..but y r the tv mets showing nothing but rain for us and not a mix?
jabcwb2 wrote:I am getting soooooo excited!!!! My son arrives from Iraq today. We are celebrating Christmas on Wednesday with him!!!!!!!!! Could almost be a white Christmas for him! How awesome is that?
God bless your son for serving America!
Many thanks Ptarmigan! I will let him know you said so....just waiting for him to call to say "Mom, I'm home!" It's been a LONG, LONG, LONG year, but I am willing to wager this day's wait is even longer!
jabcwb2 wrote:
Many thanks Ptarmigan! I will let him know you said so....just waiting for him to call to say "Mom, I'm home!" It's been a LONG, LONG, LONG year, but I am willing to wager this day's wait is even longer!
If it snows tomorrow, it would be the first time in 25 years that a winter saw two >0.005" or Trace (+0.005") snowfall event in Houston. The last time we saw this was in 1985, the winter of 1984-85.
Above Trace Snowfall
1 Snowfall=Every 5 years
2 Snowfall=Every 25 years
3 Snowfall=Every 125 years
4 Snowfall=Every 625 years
txsnowmaker wrote:Jabcwb2, I am grateful for your son's courageous and loyal service to our country, and also for the sacrifices that you and all the military families have made. God bless you all, and I hope your family has the whitest Christmas celebration you have ever had in Houston!
On behalf of my son, and other military families, YOU ARE WELCOME! Thank you for the White Christmas wish! I will be sure and tell him the snow is a "gift" from this phenom forum!!!!!
jabcwb2 wrote:
Many thanks Ptarmigan! I will let him know you said so....just waiting for him to call to say "Mom, I'm home!" It's been a LONG, LONG, LONG year, but I am willing to wager this day's wait is even longer!
Your welcome! What branch did he serve in?
4 years in the USMC (OORAH!) and now he is currently serving in the Army (HOOAH!)
What bothers me quite a bit as far as any accumulating snow in Houston tomorrow are the current temps/dew points to our northwest. I don't recall ever seeing a significant snowfall with such warm temps and dew points over a large area the day before the snow. I think that the 18Z GFS is too generous with the southward extent of snow. Surface temps in most of Houston may melt it as fast as it reaches the ground.
Last edited by wxman57 on Mon Feb 22, 2010 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
