February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Mr. T]

12z gfs looked pretty good for some snow band chances across the area... Dont get the south of ih-10 thing since moisture will be pulled far to the north

[tireman4]

Candy Cane and Mr T are right...you can see the colder air filtering in...



http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... on%2c%20TX

[tireman4]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/ ... obs_zr.php

This might help. Got this from Cyclone Mike at Storm 2k.

[Cuda17]

Aha, I am not the only one seeing this. We had leveled at 40 for a long while and then the winds kicked up(still are) and we are now at 34f and dropping at the abode here in W Houston. Even seeing a few sprinkles popping on radar. Wrap around anyone? I'm not sure we will wait till that late to get to freezing though. If the rate here at my house continues we could be at freezing around the noon-2pm time frame.
I am so glad I did my freeze preps yesterday in my shorts instead of in this NASTY weather.

VB- I am with you on that.....Currently Dallas at 19F with SA at 32F......we will be freezing here probably before 5pm is my thoughts....[/quote]

We are at 31°F here in Bellville...

[tireman4]

Remember that old saying, BB. 24 hours out is a lifetime in weather world. No one whats to be too cute or bold just yet. Do you blame them? I surely don't. A question was just asked on S2k regarding where will the moisture come from. Pro Met AFM responded, and I quote...

Two places...1st place is that huge body of water known as the Pacific. 700mb flow will be sucking in Pacific moisture...moistening up the column. 2nd place is the Gulf. The low will throw plenty of moisture in.

This is very similar to Christmas 2004...but perhaps with a little more moisture available...and colder temps (so a higher ratio).

[/quote]

He (AFM) stated:

It's a gonna snow in Houston

How much is the question.

[ticka1]

The winds has increased again rather dramatically in the past 15 minutes here, redneckweather. Getting gusts in the 30+ range again after an hour lull, if you can call it that.

Mr T and I agree that there is another front to our north...a polar boundary that is currently moving through College Station. They dropped 4 degrees last hour while we rose a degree to 44. I suspect we're going to see the temps tank here once the boundary arrives. I still think we'll be at freezing by 4pm.

Aha, I am not the only one seeing this. We had leveled at 40 for a long while and then the winds kicked up(still are) and we are now at 34f and dropping at the abode here in W Houston. Even seeing a few sprinkles popping on radar. Wrap around anyone? I'm not sure we will wait till that late to get to freezing though. If the rate here at my house continues we could be at freezing around the noon-2pm time frame.
I am so glad I did my freeze preps yesterday in my shorts instead of in this NASTY weather.

Thanks for the update David. Let us know when you hit freezing 32 degrees. Interested in when it actually hits and how long it stays freezing.....anyone want to take a guess how long of a duration we see here in SE Texas?

[tireman4]

From AFM, the pro met at Storm 2k:

As far as the Houston area...if you look at previous 1" or greater snow events (1960, Jan 1973, Both feb 1973's, feb 1980, Jan 1985, Dec 1989, dec 2004)...most of these events are similar to the setup we will have: A positively tilted trof with increasing 700 Rh from the SW. So...I think most of Houston should see 3/4-1". The potential is there for this system to produce much higher amounts in spots...it all depends on moisture. We won't be wasting any precip to cool down the column like we normally do. We will ahve to moisten it...but once that is done...it should be all snow.

[C2G]

That's definitely encouraging if you want to see snow. I could go for another 04 event, of course I was on vacation then and didn't have to drive into work.
Wow, y'all are drilling the meteorologists at Storm 2k.

[TexasMetBlake]

Temps are just TANKING across the area. Bush is falling 3 degrees an hour. Down 4 degrees last hour from 41 to 37. CLL down to 29 and CXO down to 33.

[ajurcat]

That's definitely encouraging if you want to see snow. I could go for another 04 event, of course I was on vacation then and didn't have to drive into work.
Wow, y'all are drilling the meteorologists at Storm 2k.

We were visiting family in El Campo for the 2004 event. It was magical - going to Midnight Mass in the snow, not wanting to go to bed in the event it was all a dream. I would gladly take a portion of that snow this week in Houston.

[Andrew]

Someone post the cmc it's amazing!

[TexasMetBlake]

That's definitely encouraging if you want to see snow. I could go for another 04 event, of course I was on vacation then and didn't have to drive into work.
Wow, y'all are drilling the meteorologists at Storm 2k.

We were visiting family in El Campo for the 2004 event. It was magical - going to Midnight Mass in the snow, not wanting to go to bed in the event it was all a dream. I would gladly take a portion of that snow this week in Houston.

Yeah but here you don't have to put that stupid banner on every post you make 'this is not official because the NWS are God's"

[TexasMetBlake]

Hooks down to 33.

[srainhoutx]

31F here now. The Canadian just will not quit...

[tireman4]

31F here now. The Canadian just want quit...

Do you mean the Canadian just "wont" quit?

[srainhoutx]

31F here now. The Canadian just want quit...

Do you mean the Canadian just "wont" quit?

On the phone. I hate these devices...fat fingers, ya know...

[hlewis]

Sooooo, I'm getting a lil excited. We had a significant event in 2004! Can you tell me what Wharton County is to expect and how soon could we see a flake or two ....or more?

This is so much fun... hope the winter weather making machine doesn't get unplugged on us at the last minute!! I just want one time in my life to yell....THUNDERSNOW!!!!!! lol

[vbhoutex]

Now at 32f at the weatherbug nearest to me with my thermometer reading 34.9f.
I pulled this off of a post on S2K. if it is correct!!(I think I am reading it correctly)

It is the HPC's experimental snowfall and freezing rain forecast for up to 72 hours. You can click on amounts or timeframes on the right side of page. Anyway check out what it show for friday....
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/ ... obs_zr.php

[hlewis]

Now at 32f at the weatherbug nearest to me with my thermometer reading 34.9f.
I pulled this off of a post on S2K. if it is correct!!(I think I am reading it correctly)

It is the HPC's experimental snowfall and freezing rain forecast for up to 72 hours. You can click on amounts or timeframes on the right side of page. Anyway check out what it show for friday....

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/ ... obs_zr.php

gave me an error... 404 not found

[TexasMetBlake]

Same here.