February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Andrew]

if they are going single digits in Dallas you can bet your last dollar that it will be low 20's to high teens here. Ugh...forget about covering plants with that cold.....There are going to be a lot of dead palms in my neck of the woods....

Yea I tried my best to cover the plants but I don't think it will help much.

[txsnowmaker]

Candy Cane, re: your source saying "Could repeat next week," did that include the possibility of wintry precip?

[TexasMetBlake]

Well there's going to be a sufficient snow pack just to our north (Waco to Canada), very, very strong CAA and the high centered to our west. Temps in MT tonight are forecast to drop to near -40. What more could you want? I still think IAH will see teens...possibly Wed. night and Thursday night.

[ejburas]

CC, if we hit the teens on Thu night/Fri morning...what are the chances that we don't even break 30 on Fri with the snow falling and cloud cover?

[TexasMetBlake]

CC, if we hit the teens on Thu night/Fri morning...what are the chances that we don't even break 30 on Fri with the snow falling and cloud cover?

We'll break 30. It is EXCEEDINGLY RARE to have highs in the 20s here...although it has happened a few times. We may however only top out at 32 on Wed and Thurs. When I asked my source at HGX, he said highs of freezing were possible but didn't want to go that low yet.

[wxman666]

Here's Our Severe Wx Threat...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...GULF COAST STATES TO TN VALLEY...
ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXTENSIVE MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH SOME
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN-MOST NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST
TX TO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX. A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED TSTMS COULD ALSO BE ONGOING/DEVELOP EARLY TODAY ALONG THE
UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO LA...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO A POSSIBILITY.

[ejburas]

Thanks CC. No matter what, it looks very cold for us. Once we slip below 40 later today, it looks like we won't see that temp again until the weekend.

[biggerbyte]

I'll come aboard in regards to the temps Tuesday night, and Precip. Wednesday night. We should be close enough in by then to be somewhat accurate. I'll tell you what... Things sure are looking exciting. It has been a long time since this area has had this much potential for some real winter fun. It brings back memories from my years in Dallas when this sort of thing was a yearly affair.

In the meantime, God bless those that are no longer with us. Those who do not get to witness this unfolding. Harold, Dan, and so many others... We miss you greatly.

[sambucol]

Here's Our Severe Wx Threat...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...GULF COAST STATES TO TN VALLEY...
ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXTENSIVE MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH SOME
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN-MOST NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST
TX TO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX. A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED TSTMS COULD ALSO BE ONGOING/DEVELOP EARLY TODAY ALONG THE
UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO LA...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO A POSSIBILITY.

Is this severe weather going to hit the Houston area in the early morning hours or later in the day?

[Mr. T]

Front through the Dallas/Ft Worth area... Front is in a SW to NE configuration approaching Waco now...

[Andrew]

The lift currently is amazing!:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

[seanatsk]

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 25.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

Friday Night: A slight chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Regarding the above forecast if it snows on Thursday and into Friday and we get above freezing Friday wouldn't the snow melt a little and then refreeze Friday night causing ice issues.

Just a thought!?

[wxman666]

Here's Our Severe Wx Threat...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...GULF COAST STATES TO TN VALLEY...
ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXTENSIVE MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH SOME
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN-MOST NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST
TX TO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX. A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED TSTMS COULD ALSO BE ONGOING/DEVELOP EARLY TODAY ALONG THE
UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO LA...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO A POSSIBILITY.

Is this severe weather going to hit the Houston area in the early morning hours or later in the day?

The current forecast shows the worst storms hitting between 3 AM and 11 AM.

[Andrew]

Euro is showing .12 of wintry percip.

[sambucol]

Thanks, Wx.

[Mr. T]

Euro is showing .12 of wintry percip.

Any temp issues?

[Andrew]

Euro is showing .12 of wintry percip.

Any temp issues?

Well maybe a little. 1.7 is the max temp shown through the event with 850 freezing the whole time.

[ronyan]

Pressure in Montana is now 1052 mb. Bring it on!

[txsnowmaker]

Euro is showing .12 of wintry percip.

Thanks Andrew. How does this compare to the most recent Euro runs? Also, any word from the UKMET?

[Mr. T]

Well maybe a little. 1.7 is the max temp shown through the event with 850 freezing the whole time.

Evaporative cooling