February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Snowman]

i think one thing is for sure... the amount of snow the models are predicting now are not what will happen on friday. it will be wednesday night before we have a decent handle on snowfall amounts around the area

[Mr. T]

Definitely good trends on tonight's 0z GFS and NAM. The 0z CMC would be the best. The model is now not as warm but still has a lot of QPF around...

[Andrew]

The models are under estimating QPF to this point. A very dynamic situation is unfolding. Sleet reflections on radar across parts of W and N TX and OK. Much more moisture than was expected across KS. And the Canadian is at it again for Thursday/Friday…

The cmc just won't back down! Most likely it would still be wintry percip but if the CMC verifies it would be amazing. More snow/ wintry weather than we have seen in a long time!

[Snowman]

How much snow is the CMC showing andrew?

[Mr. T]

The cmc just won't back down! Most likely it would still be wintry percip but if the CMC verifies it would be amazing. More snow/ wintry weather than we have seen in a long time!

This run is definitely not as warm as previous runs.

[wxman666]

Are any of you monitoring the activity out in WNW, NW, and NNW Texas? The radar has become very alive and colorful.

Doesn't seem to be moving much right now.

Monitoring SPC all night tonight.

[Andrew]

The cmc just won't back down! Most likely it would still be wintry percip but if the CMC verifies it would be amazing. More snow/ wintry weather than we have seen in a long time!

This run is definitely not as warm as previous runs.

Yea 850 temps are def closer to the shore and if it is anything like the 12z for surface temps we won't have a problem! I hope the CMC is right.

[redneckweather]

Spill it CC! I've got to head off to bed.

[txsnowmaker]

The cmc just won't back down! Most likely it would still be wintry percip but if the CMC verifies it would be amazing. More snow/ wintry weather than we have seen in a long time!

This run is definitely not as warm as previous runs.

Yea 850 temps are def closer to the shore and if it is anything like the 12z for surface temps we won't have a problem! I hope the CMC is right.

Is the Canadian depicting an all-out snowstorm for Houston?

[Paul]

have to agree with Cane on lowering temps with the obs upstream....no modification with this airmass and low dewpoints....you get the winds to die down some and CAA will bottom out. Maybe thats why the NWS still hanging on to 25F? dont know but I think we are going to see a lot lower temps and a longer freeze for some.....

when does TS season begin?

[Snowman]

Spill it CC! I've got to head off to bed.

I agree! i am also waiting for the beans to be spilled! and i would also like to know how much snow the CMC is predicting

[srainhoutx]

Spill it CC! I've got to head off to bed.

I agree! i am also waiting for the beans to be spilled! and i would also like to know how much snow the CMC is predicting

That data is not readily available this soon after the run. Remember the Canadian does go out to 240 hour on the 00Z run, daily.

[TexasMetBlake]

Dallas has lowered their temps again. They are now calling for SINGLE DIGITS IN DALLAS....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... mx=1&zmy=1

Also just got off the phone with my source at HGX and here's just a quick and I mean quick run down. He thinks:

-Current forecast temps via grids are too warm. He thinks they will continue to go down. Lows in the teens possible (16 for CLL?)

-Mixing issues on the coast. NOT all snow until towards the end of the event.

-Heaviest accumulations will be I-10 northward thanks to the disturbance moving much closer to the coast. Heaviest precip is usually always north of the low.

-Possible revision of Wind Chill Advisory Criteria for Houston tomorrow at a meeting that HGX is holding.

-Winter Storm Watch seems possible by Thursday for most of the CWA.

- All snow from Houston northward. Mixing south of Houston.

-NAM and CMC are VERY encouraging. NAM is usually last to catch on.

-Could repeat next week

[ticka1]

Spill it CC! I've got to head off to bed.

I agree! i am also waiting for the beans to be spilled! and i would also like to know how much snow the CMC is predicting

Me three - 4:30 a.m. comes early!!!! give us the scoop Candycane.

[srainhoutx]

Time for bed. I suspect another early wakeup for me tomorrow morning. Let's hope the Euro and UKMET continue the trend. Good night folks.

[Andrew]

The cmc just won't back down! Most likely it would still be wintry percip but if the CMC verifies it would be amazing. More snow/ wintry weather than we have seen in a long time!

This run is definitely not as warm as previous runs.

Yea 850 temps are def closer to the shore and if it is anything like the 12z for surface temps we won't have a problem! I hope the CMC is right.

Is the Canadian depicting an all-out snowstorm for Houston?[/quote]


Um prob a mix. Too early to really tell.

[sambucol]

If there is a winter storm watch issued Thursday, schools will probably close for Friday. Districts many times wait until the last minute to announce closures.

[TexasMetBlake]

I disagree. Mixing will not be an issue for Houston. The cold air is sufficiently cold enough to support all snow north of I-10.

[Paul]

if they are going single digits in Dallas you can bet your last dollar that it will be low 20's to high teens here. Ugh...forget about covering plants with that cold.....There are going to be a lot of dead palms in my neck of the woods....

[sambucol]

Candy Cane:
I received an email from the City of Baytown OEM coordinator tonight. There is concern regarding icing of streets Thursday/Friday and snow. Are we at risk for icy conditions?