biggerbyte wrote:Folks, I would be very careful about bashing Heller until we see this event actually unfold. Secondly, if you look at some of the graphs on this page and the previous one, they are not all snow happy, except for folks generally north of I10. To place a dividing line splitting Harris County in half, one side snow, one side mix, questions forecasted temps. We simply do not know yet where the snow/snow mix/rain line will be. Those graphs might be right or wrong, but they paint a picture of either utter disappointment, or uncertainty.
Remember, the higher you climb/cocky, the farther you have to fall.
We need to hope for the best, and wait for the big snow event to get nearer. Heller is bound to have good reason for being cautious. If he saw snow coming, he would have no trouble telling us so.
Again, I was not bashing Heller. Read what I stated. I stated he was nonchalant about his forecast. I stated that he probably was waiting to be convinced.
Sorry, tireman. I was not referring to you. Your comments were read, and I agree with them...actually.
djmike wrote:It's because of that post put out bashing the Chronicle about there forecast on this event. Sad to say, but Heller was wrong on this weeks forecast and the Chronicle was right...he feels kind of stupid now so he's laying low....JMO
djmike wrote:It's because of that post put out bashing the Chronicle about there forecast on this event. Sad to say, but Heller was wrong on this weeks forecast and the Chronicle was right...he feels kind of stupid now so he's laying low....JMO
What did Tim forecast?
30 percent chance of flurries on Friday
It seemed to me that Tim was sounding positive regarding snow chance here in S.E. Texas on the 6 oclock broadcast. He said it would take till later in the week to nail down if and where any accumulations would be.
tireman4 wrote:
4. Drive in the direction of the skid. ( if you skid). If you have a pull up emergency brake, that will so help you in a skid. Light pullups usually stop anything.
It seemed to me that Tim was sounding positive regarding snow chance here in S.E. Texas on the 6 oclock broadcast. He said it would take till later in the week to nail down if and where any accumulations would be.[/quote]
tireman4 wrote:[30 percent chance of flurries on Friday
It seemed to me that Tim was sounding positive regarding snow chance here in S.E. Texas on the 6 oclock broadcast. He said it would take till later in the week to nail down if and where any accumulations would be.[/quote]
Well I stand corrected if I misinterpreted it...[/quote]
I'm sure we all took it differently I'm sure all of the on air mets are trying to be cautious in regards to the upcoming winter weather threat with some many variables at play.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN OK...NW TX.
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 010304Z - 010900Z
BAND OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH MORE PURELY FREEZING RAIN ON
ITS SRN/ERN FRINGES AND SLEET ON WRN FRINGES...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE/EXPAND NEWD FROM NW TX ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 06Z...POSSIBLY
REACHING PORTIONS NERN OK INVOF TUL AROUND 08-10Z. ACTIVITY ALSO
MAY BACKBUILD SWWD SOMEWHAT ACROSS NW TX INTO AREAS E OF LBB AND S
OF CDS. ALSO...CONVERSION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
OCCUR WITHIN PORTIONS PRECIP PLUME INITIALLY SE OF FREEZING LINE.
EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES BRIEFLY REACHING
0.5-0.75 INCH/HOUR RANGE...BUT WITH .10-.25 INCH/HOUR RATES MORE
COMMON.
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- ANALYZED ON 00Z UPPER-AIR CHARTS OVER
CENTRAL/NRN NM...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TO W TX BY ABOUT
09Z...PRECEDED BY EXTENSIVE AREA OF MIDLEVEL DCVA AND LOW-LEVEL WAA
ABOVE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CONTINUING
TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS NRN HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TX...AS WELL AS
CONCHO VALLEY AND PERMIAN BASIN. FREEZING AND WET-BULB 0 LINES
LIKEWISE WILL MOVE SWD BENEATH PROGRESSIVELY MORE OF PRECIP PLUMES
NOW SPREADING NEWD FROM NW TX AND FROM ABI AREA. TIME SERIES OF
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOISTEN
COLUMN IN MOST OF 700-850 MB LAYER AND KEEP IT SUPERFREEZING...WHILE
RAPIDLY INCREASING LAYER RH AND REMOVING CINH IN SUPPORT OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. MUCAPE 300-500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...EXTENDING WELL
INTO ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR THUNDER. DEPTH OF SUPERFREEZING
LAYER SUGGESTS AMPLE MELTING OPPORTUNITY FOR GRAUPEL AND SNOW
GENERATED ALOFT...WHICH THEN WOULD FREEZE WITHIN DEEP POST-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
1. ON WRN MARGINS OF EXPANDING PRECIP PLUME...ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z...WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF APCHG MID-UPPER
TROUGH COULD KEEP/COOL COLUMN BELOW FREEZING AND FAVOR INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SNOW...AND
2. ON SRN/ERN FRINGES WHERE FRONTAL LAYER MAY REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH
FOR DROPS TO REMAIN LIQUID TO SFC.
..EDWARDS.. 02/01/2011
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
At least the Houston/Galveston NWS office seems to think this is a classic setup for snow in southeast Texas.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
556 PM CST Monday Jan 31 2011
Will see increasing isentropic lift and moisture
over the cold llvls beginning Thursday. There is increasing confidence
that we could southeast some wintery precipitation with this system (most likely
snow attm) as historically it is a classic setup for this area.
Will nudge chances of precipitation up to 40% areawide Thursday nt and Friday
with the eventual plan to pin down timing/quantitative precipitation forecast as it becomes more
clear and increase chances (as warranted). Fwiw this far out...model
based accumulations suggest anywhere from a trace to several
inches.
Oh you would, huh, Cloud2ground? You want to see lightning go flash flash flash and the thunder go boom, rumble, crack, bang, pow, snap, crackle, pop, and just plain crash like splintered glass? Would you also care to hear hail make things outside sound like a war is going on?
Last edited by sleetstorm on Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
biggerbyte wrote:Folks, I would be very careful about bashing Heller until we see this event actually unfold. Secondly, if you look at some of the graphs on this page and the previous one, they are not all snow happy, except for folks generally north of I10. To place a dividing line splitting Harris County in half, one side snow, one side mix, questions forecasted temps. We simply do not know yet where the snow/snow mix/rain line will be. Those graphs might be right or wrong, but they paint a picture of either utter disappointment, or uncertainty.
Remember, the higher you climb/cocky, the farther you have to fall.
We need to hope for the best, and wait for the big snow event to get nearer. Heller is bound to have good reason for being cautious. If he saw snow coming, he would have no trouble telling us so.
Well Heller bashed the Chronicle for saying a big weather change was going to happen this week that would plunge temps into the 20's. I'm quite comfortable in saying that the chronicle will be right in this instance, and I'm being way more careful than Heller was... http://weatherblog.abc13.com/2011/01/we ... paper.html
We just got back from Steamboat - 250" of snow and sunshine! Taught my kiddo (who has some challenges) to snowboard, and we rode the mountain together. Kiddo lamented upon returning that he wished Houston was covered in snow and full of mountains. We all laughed and said "dream on, kid!" Well....here's hoping kiddo gets his wish. *fingers crossed.*
Just got back but I want everyone to take a breath and look at this event. This is probably going to be one of the most historic events for OK and is going to be a big event for us also. You aren't going to see a setup like this very often. This is truly incredible.
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biggerbyte wrote:Folks, I would be very careful about bashing Heller until we see this event actually unfold. Secondly, if you look at some of the graphs on this page and the previous one, they are not all snow happy, except for folks generally north of I10. To place a dividing line splitting Harris County in half, one side snow, one side mix, questions forecasted temps. We simply do not know yet where the snow/snow mix/rain line will be. Those graphs might be right or wrong, but they paint a picture of either utter disappointment, or uncertainty.
Remember, the higher you climb/cocky, the farther you have to fall.
We need to hope for the best, and wait for the big snow event to get nearer. Heller is bound to have good reason for being cautious. If he saw snow coming, he would have no trouble telling us so.
Well Heller bashed the Chronicle for saying a big weather change was going to happen this week that would plunge temps into the 20's. I'm quite comfortable in saying that the chronicle will be right in this instance, and I'm being way more careful than Heller was... http://weatherblog.abc13.com/2011/01/we ... paper.html
Well...though he hasn't admitted he was wrong, he is forecasting snow now, lol!
Brown county...that's my family in that stuff!! I have warned my grandparents about the major winter wx up there and just sent them the svr tstm warning.
I'm sure all of the on air mets are trying to be cautious in regards to the upcoming winter weather threat with some many variables at play.
I have warned my grandparents about the major winter wx up there and just sent them the svr tstm warning.