February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[tireman4]

...

Arctic boundary moving into the TX panhandle where Amarillo has fallen to 27 versus 62 at Lubbock. Upstream temperatures over KS are running about 5-10 degrees colder than model guidance was suggesting. Expect the freezing line will progress rapidly southward into TX tonight and early Tuesday which may result in a southward adjustment of winter precip. on Tuesday. For now best estimate is to keep the freezing rain line north of all of SE TX, but will be watching the trends very close this evening.

Also per SPC there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight and early Tuesday ahead of the arctic boundary. Severe hail and wind damage will be possible mainly along and N of I-10.

12Z guidance now coming in continues the winter storm threat Thursday/Friday for coastal Texas.

From Jeff..on Storm2k

[Andrew]

CMC 2m temps are a lot colder than the 850 temps. As a result we would get wintry percip with most if not all of the disturbance.

[Mr. Weather]

CMC 2m temps are a lot colder than the 850 temps. As a result we would get wintry percip with most if not all of the disturbance.

is that the disturbance that's coming in Thursday night into Friday that u are referring to ?

[Andrew]

CMC 2m temps are a lot colder than the 850 temps. As a result we would get wintry percip with most if not all of the disturbance.

is that the disturbance that's coming in Thursday night into Friday that u are referring to ?

Correct and then as the ridge moves east the CMC has areas hitting close to 20 around Houston and 10 degrees NW of that!

Also here is a quote from txagwxman on 2k: (don't really know if I agree)

Going on a limb...Houston schools will be close Fri.

[Mr. Weather]

Correct and then as the ridge moves east the CMC has areas hitting close to 20 around Houston and 10 degrees NW of that![/quote]


wow !!! it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds

[rnmm]

Ok my kids are beside theirselves already with the chance of snow I sure hope this pans out for their sake, oh who am I kidding for mine too!! LOL we will be checking back to see what you guys think!!

[srainhoutx]

Freeze preparations complete. I’m worried that my Pygmy Date Palm will not handle another very hard freeze even close to last January. It has finally started to recover from that event. And of course, right on cue, I have new blooms on 2 water lilies in a 2000 gallon fish pond that cannot be covered. The smaller pond (400 gallon) will be covered tomorrow and the heater is on. What fun…

[AggieBuckeye]

Freeze preparations complete. I’m worried that my Pygmy Date Palm will not handle another very hard freeze even close to last January. It has finally started to recover from that event. And of course, right on cue, I have new blooms on 2 water lilies in a 2000 gallon fish pond that cannot be covered. The smaller pond (400 gallon) will be covered tomorrow and the heater is on. What fun…

Oh come on, you know you are excited about the potential of some winter weather...

[srainhoutx]

Freeze preparations complete. I’m worried that my Pygmy Date Palm will not handle another very hard freeze even close to last January. It has finally started to recover from that event. And of course, right on cue, I have new blooms on 2 water lilies in a 2000 gallon fish pond that cannot be covered. The smaller pond (400 gallon) will be covered tomorrow and the heater is on. What fun…

Oh come on, you know you are excited about the potential of some winter weather...

The cold, I can do without. Now if we get some wintry weather more than a flizzard or virga snow storm, I'll deal with the cold, I guess.

[Mr. T]

Also here is a quote from txagwxman on 2k: (don't really know if I agree)

Going on a limb...Houston schools will be close Fri.

Is that a pro met?

[tireman4]

Yes, txagwxman is a pro met from Tomball, Texas

[srainhoutx]

And a member here, but has not posted but couple of times since last February.

[Andrew]

Also here is a quote from txagwxman on 2k: (don't really know if I agree)

Going on a limb...Houston schools will be close Fri.

Is that a pro met?

Yes

[srainhoutx]

I think it is safe to say that the front is running just a bit ahead of schedule. FROPA in Childress and diving S...



Lubbock (Texas Tech) Mesonet Obs...

http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/latestobs/current.html

[harpman]

Interesting. Do the temps appear to be about what was forecasted? Higher/lower?

[Paul]

It is ahead of schedule and I am not liking some of lows guidance is spitting out.. ..I am going to lose my tropical plants once again this year......going to leave the pool running tomorrow night and Wednsday.....I dont have a freeze stat like you Steve. I got a cheap pool....

[tireman4]

Lower....the front is moving faster than the models had shown...

from Jeff at Storm 2K


Arctic boundary moving into the TX panhandle where Amarillo has fallen to 27 versus 62 at Lubbock. Upstream temperatures over KS are running about 5-10 degrees colder than model guidance was suggesting. Expect the freezing line will progress rapidly southward into TX tonight and early Tuesday which may result in a southward adjustment of winter precip. on Tuesday. For now best estimate is to keep the freezing rain line north of all of SE TX, but will be watching the trends very close this evening.

Also per SPC there will be a risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight and early Tuesday ahead of the arctic boundary. Severe hail and wind damage will be possible mainly along and N of I-10.

12Z guidance now coming in continues the winter storm threat Thursday/Friday for coastal Texas.

[harpman]

Thanks. Still watching and waiting here in New Orleans......

[Mr. T]

HGX ups snow chances.... Mentions possiblity of several inches:

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING DROPPING A
TROF NEAR THE 4-CORNERS WED...INTO NRN MEXICO THURS...THEN
EJECTING EWD INTO TX THURS NIGHT & FRI. STILL SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING AROUND 6 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. WILL SEE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
OVER THE COLD LLVLS BEGINNING THURS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT WE COULD SE SOME WINTERY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM (MOST LIKELY
SNOW ATTM) AS HISTORICALLY IT IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR THIS AREA.
WILL NUDGE CHANCES OF PRECIP UP TO 40% AREAWIDE THURS NT AND FRI
WITH THE EVENTUAL PLAN TO PIN DOWN TIMING/QPF AS IT BECOMES MORE
CLEAR AND INCREASE CHANCES (AS WARRANTED). FWIW THIS FAR OUT...MODEL
BASED ACCUMULATIONS SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO SEVERAL
INCHES.

[Mr. T]

All snow:

Thursday Night...Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s.

Friday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the upper 30s.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of flurries in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s.



HGX does not have us reaching 40 degrees after tuesday until saturday afternoon