February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Mr. T]

12z NAM says have fun digging out OKC. The Xmas 09 storm is now their biggest storm on record, and this storm could seriously break that record.

[srainhoutx]

The dynamics are amazing on the NAM. Look at the 850 winds. Wind chills are going to an issue, if that model is correct...

[Rich]

Man, It sure does appear that things are trending in our favor regarding snow chances later in the week! Thanks guys for keeping everyone updated on the upcoming event!

[srainhoutx]

Switching to WRF, our next storm is developing to our W and a surface low forms over NE MX. Moisture pooling begins off S TX coastal areas...

[srainhoutx]

La La Land NAM (hour 60) suggests a Euro/UKMET type solution slowing the progression of our late week system, it appears.

[Mr. Weather]

La La Land NAM (hour 60) suggests a Euro/UKMET type solution slowing the progression of our late week system, it appears.

slowing is a good sign correct ?

[TexasMetBlake]

Well I can't really say that I am shocked. I just got up and see the board has erupted overnight. I haven't looked at everything yet, but it looks mighty exciting. I suspect the soundings will support snow to the coast with accumulations. Let's hope our little jewel (the low) finds a decent moisture pool when it arrives like in 04.

[TexasMetBlake]

La La Land NAM (hour 60) suggests a Euro/UKMET type solution slowing the progression of our late week system, it appears.

slowing is a good sign correct ?

Faster is better. The colder air will be in place sooner. If the disturbance rolls through too late, it'll miss the coldest of air.

[Mr. T]

Faster is better. The colder air will be in place sooner. If the disturbance rolls through too late, it'll miss the coldest of air.

As the NWS said, slower is better:

THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH AND WHEN
THE BEST LIFT OCCURS COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT TEMP/MOISTURE
PROFILES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING AT FIRST WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET
BULBING OCCURRING WITH THE STRONG ASCENT MAY HELP ELIMINATE THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF

If it's too fast, we won't have enough available moisture... The cold air will be here regardless. This is why the slower Euro gives us a better chance at accumulating snow and more QPF. Even with a slower system like the Euro, soundings still support snow

[TexasMetBlake]

Faster is better. The colder air will be in place sooner. If the disturbance rolls through too late, it'll miss the coldest of air.

As the NWS said, slower is better:

THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH AND WHEN
THE BEST LIFT OCCURS COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT TEMP/MOISTURE
PROFILES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING AT FIRST WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET
BULBING OCCURRING WITH THE STRONG ASCENT MAY HELP ELIMINATE THIS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF

If it's too fast, we won't have enough available moisture... The cold air will be here regardless.

Well turn me upside down and paint me candy apple green (my fav. color)

[weatherguy425]

After looking at temp forecasts for surrounding offices, I think it'd be a good idea for HGX to go ahead and lower MAX temps. Heck, waco isn't supposed to break 30 tomorrow and Austin is expected to have a high of 34 wednesday and 32 on thursday!

[tireman4]

They may wait for more models to come in or let the afternoon crew do it.

[srainhoutx]

I have to head out and do some freeze protection, folks. I suspect the GFS/Canadian//Euro/UKMET will make for some interesting discussions. I also suspect a new video will be out shortly from our friends at Impact Weather, as well.

[TexasMetBlake]

Brownsville now going ALL sleet/snow Thursday, Thursday Night and Friday in the grids. Amazing. Here is their discussion:

LONG TERM/6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WEDNESDAY MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WITH MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS YEAR WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNINGS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EACH MORNING FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20`S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20`S TO LOW 30`S OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE FREEZE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEXT MONDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

[AggieBuckeye]

Wow, this is starting to shape up for 3 straight years of snow in Houston. Unbelievable.

[TexasMetBlake]

Wow, this is starting to shape up for 3 straight years of snow in Houston. Unbelievable.

Well now we have to say '3 consecutive seasons'. LOL

[tireman4]

Yep, three consecutive seasons..if this verifies......It is looking more and more like it just might...

[ronyan]

Pressures in Canada are up to 1048 mb in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Havre, Montana now reporting -31 F, here it comes folks. Be prepared!

[Rich]

Wow, this is starting to shape up for 3 straight years of snow in Houston. Unbelievable.

Well now we have to say '3 consecutive seasons'. LOL

If we end up getting snow with this system, would this be the first time we would have seen snow here in Houston for 3 consecutive winter seasons?

[TexasMetBlake]

Wow, this is starting to shape up for 3 straight years of snow in Houston. Unbelievable.

Well now we have to say '3 consecutive seasons'. LOL

If we end up getting snow with this system, would this be the first time we would have seen snow here in Houston for 3 consecutive winter seasons?

Yes. However, this is not to be confused with the 1973 event in which it snowed 3 times in one season. If trends continue, we could see this happen all over again next week.