February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[wxman666]

Major pre-frontal storm migraine occurring right now...2nd day in a row. That's the one thing I hate about these storm systems.

[Ptarmigan]

I think they got a good snowfall in 1960? My sister was wee little and she was born in Jan 1960 and they have pics of her and my brother in the snow that's pretty deep.

4.4 inches on Feb. 12, 1960 (http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm). According to this site, that is the most snow that the city of Houston has experienced, other than the 20 inches that fell in Feb. 1895.

Temperature Record for before and after February 12, 1960.
2/11/1960-58/44
2/12/1960-49/30
2/13/1960-47/37
2/14/1960-58/37

Not really cold.

Temperature Record for before and after January 11, 1973
1/8/1973-38/32
1/9/1973-34/31
1/10/1973-33/31
1/11/1973-33/25
1/12/1973-38/19
1/13/1973-58/20

It was very cold. It would not surprise me if this freeze is like January 1973.

[Mr. T]

this run shows some VERY LIGHT snow, sleet, or light freezing rain possiblity all the way into far S TX. Close call for Brownsville

[Andrew]

and 114 Def more then last run

It is definitely indicating a band of light snow moving through the area on friday

That 0c line is way off the coast, so no troubles there... Who knows, we may have something here. But, this still looks moisture starved at this time

Yea it would be snow for sure with freezing throughout all levels. One thing to keep track of is we will have no issues with sticking so what falls will stick but how many times have we seen these models pick up on these systems to have them only intensify as we get closer. I am def liking the trend.

[skidog38]

if the front comes in monday night then what? and the low stalls?

[Mr. T]

Yea it would be snow for sure with freezing throughout all levels. One thing to keep track of is we will have no issues with sticking so what falls will stick but how many times have we seen these models pick up on these systems to have them only intensify as we get closer. I am def liking the trend.

If models start to try and close this system off, watch out... We're definitely trending in an interesting direction right now. I'd almost be worried if the GFS was showing a major storm right now...

[Andrew]

Look how the cold air has transitioned:

[Andrew]

Yea it would be snow for sure with freezing throughout all levels. One thing to keep track of is we will have no issues with sticking so what falls will stick but how many times have we seen these models pick up on these systems to have them only intensify as we get closer. I am def liking the trend.

If models start to try and close this system off, watch out... We're definitely trending in an interesting direction right now. I'd almost be worried if the GFS was showing a major storm right now...

That is what I was saying you never want the GFS to show a major winter storm 5 days out. Just like you want it to forecast a landfall for a hurricane 5 days out.

[Mr. T]

That is what I was saying you never want the GFS to show a major winter storm 5 days out. Just like you want it to forecast a landfall for a hurricane 5 days out.

It sounds unprofessional, but the idea behind this is once you have a model that shows a perfect solution for you 5 days out and you know realistically that it can't get any better, the only trend at that point is for things to get worse... And, of course models change 5 days out, so you know the solution you're looking at is probably verbatim not going to happen. Something close to it, but not quite like that

[JulieC]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REw7TCJnHso

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpgeAMdsX9U

For nostalgic purposes

Very cool. I watched Doug Johnson every night when I was growing up and I guess that is how I took an interest in the weather. Math and Science were definitely not my strong points, so no meteorology for me. I still find it interesting though.

[Andrew]

That is what I was saying you never want the GFS to show a major winter storm 5 days out. Just like you want it to forecast a landfall for a hurricane 5 days out.

It sounds unprofessional, but the idea behind this is once you have a model that shows a perfect solution for you 5 days out and you know realistically that it can't get any better, the only trend at that point is for things to get worse... And, of course models change 5 days out, so you know the solution you're looking at is probably verbatim not going to happen. Something close to it, but not quite like that

Exactly! one thing is for sure I see a lot of loss sleep over the next couple of days.

[Mr. T]

This is something to talk about a bit later after we can pin down the upcoming events of this upcoming week, but the 0z GFS and some previous model forecasts have another arctic outbreak setting up around day 7 with the arctic air reaching us again around day 10.

[JulieC]

Major pre-frontal storm migraine occurring right now...2nd day in a row. That's the one thing I hate about these storm systems.

Kids at school will probably give me a pre-frontal storm migraine tomorrow. Their behavior changes for the worse right before a weather change (or a full moon). Looking like lots of indoor recess this week.

[wxman666]

Major pre-frontal storm migraine occurring right now...2nd day in a row. That's the one thing I hate about these storm systems.

Kids at school will probably give me a pre-frontal storm migraine tomorrow. Their behavior changes for the worse right before a weather change (or a full moon). Looking like lots of indoor recess this week.

Lol! Hope y'all have a severe weather safety area for Tuesday.

[txsnowmaker]

It will be interesting to see if tonight's Canadian and Euro runs continue with the trend of a disturbance crossing our region later in the week.

[Andrew]

It will be interesting to see if tonight's Canadian and Euro runs continue with the trend of a disturbance crossing our region later in the week.

From what I can tell Canadian doesn't look as wet.

[Mr. T]

It will be interesting to see if tonight's Canadian and Euro runs continue with the trend of a disturbance crossing our region later in the week.

From what I can tell Canadian doesn't look as wet.

What site are you looking at? I'm still getting the old 0z run

[Andrew]

It will be interesting to see if tonight's Canadian and Euro runs continue with the trend of a disturbance crossing our region later in the week.

From what I can tell Canadian doesn't look as wet.

What site are you looking at? I'm still getting the old 0z run

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html


Also nevermind boy was I wrong....

[Mr. T]

Also nevermind boy was I wrong....

I see it's out to 108 on that site...

It is still a lot wetter but a lot warmer (no snow)... I think it's still an outlier at this point because it's the only model that is trying to hold back the upper level low in the SW for so long. Looks like a bias to me

[Andrew]

Also nevermind boy was I wrong....

I see it's out to 108 on that site...

It is still a lot wetter but a lot warmer (no snow)... I think it's still an outlier at this point because it's the only model that is trying to hold back the upper level low in the SW for so long. Looks like a bias to me

On my side it shows it all the way done but you are right no snow. I don't know about the 2m temps but I am assuming they are above freezing also. I wish we could have the GFS coldness and the CMC wetness= super fun time (as Ed would say)