February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[TexasMetBlake]

and I'm pretty if the Euro comes in looking like the CMC, I may just faint right here in my chair. Just saying. Mr. T, still have that yellow banana suit?

[TexasMetBlake]

Here's an interesting read. There are pics at the bottom. Notice the signatures in the pics from past severe freezes to what is being depicted in the models now (all three global models). Certainly caught my attention.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

[Mr. T]

and I'm pretty if the Euro comes in looking like the CMC, I may just faint right here in my chair. Just saying. Mr. T, still have that yellow banana suit?

Right next to my Spongebob outfit

[TexasMetBlake]

You know I'm partial to Spongebob. That one is mine...

[TexasMetBlake]

Euro is out to 168! Let's take a look shall we...

[TexasMetBlake]

120 hrs:

[TexasMetBlake]

144:

[Mr. T]

The new 0z Euro actually looks a lot like the GFS... It slightly colder than the GFS and does have the passing disturbance further south than the GFS

It is slower with the system across the Pacific so the full phase is not allowed to happen. However, a hard freeze would still be possible with this run

[TexasMetBlake]

168:

[Andrew]

The new 0z Euro actually looks a lot like the GFS... It slightly colder than the GFS and does have the passing disturbance further south than the GFS

It is slower with the system across the Pacific so the full phase is not allowed to happen. However, a hard freeze would still be possible with this run

More importantly it brings the disturbance back.

[TexasMetBlake]

Yeah, I was going to say that the disturbance is back, but I still think the dry air is going to preclude anything significant.

[TexasMetBlake]

Not to mention, the Euro would paint snow and not ice for our region. The cold air is deeper than the GFS.

[TexasMetBlake]

192:

[TexasMetBlake]

Euro shows a winter storm of sorts for north Texas but am still leary. It's taking forever to get the 216 graphic. Personally, I'm skeptical of the quick moderation. I think an airmass like this would take some time to moderate.

[TexasMetBlake]

My source at HGX says: "This is very encouraging as the high drops straight south into central Texas. This is the coldest run yet for southeast Texas. Winter Storm level event in Fort Worth this run. Past events have kept the high north or east of Texas. This time, it's sitting IN Texas...just NW of here. This is very cold for us."

[TexasMetBlake]

216:

[Baseballdude2915]

The Euro warmed up a bit.. Gfs has gotten colder. CMC is on crack.

Is it just me, or do we all stop whatever we are doing and take a minute to
look at 12z and 00z model runs when they come out?

[srainhoutx]

Well well. I see we have some significant changes over night via the guidance. Interesting to see the Euro continue to slow the short wave down. Now the fine tuning will begin as we head into the weekend. Next Tuesday looks mighty cold and damp...

Austin/San Antonio this morning from their AFD:

NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING WITH AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA MON-TUE...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER TROF PASSING OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THEREFORE A BOUT OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY FOR TUE-TUE
EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY
WITH THESE FEATURES BEFORE GOING WITH ANY TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER.
FOR NOW HAVE NOT GONE BELOW FREEZING UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN I HAVE
POPS ENDING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AT THIS TIME.



Corpus Christi:

GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE SIMILAR WITH ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE WEST COAST SUNDAY AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR ARIZONA ON
MONDAY WITH THE UKMET FASTER INTO NEW MEXICO. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH BULK OF COLD AIR MOVING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. WILL BROADBRUSH LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST...POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED 546
1000-500 THICKNESS LINE PERSISTING ALONG PORT LAVACA-LAREDO LINE
WEDNESDAY. IF COLD AIR PUSH IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
BE A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE REGION. WAY TOO
EARLY TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
LACKING BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

[Katdaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
412 AM CST THU JAN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OR SO TO ENJOY THIS BREAK OF QUIET WEATHER
ACROSS SE TX. WEAK REINFORCING COLD/DRY AIR TO CONTINUE FILTERING
INTO THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WSW. MODELS KEEPING WITH A WET/ACTIVE FCST FOR THE WEEK-
END BUT WE ARE NOW SEEING MORE DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS COLD FRONT
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROF/DISTURBANCE. ECMWF STILL BRINGS
THIS FRONT TO THE COAST BEFORE STALLING IT...WHEREAS THE GFS DOES
KEEP THIS BOUNDARY OVER NORTH TX DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. IT
LOOKS TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE TUES WITH
PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER STRONG WELL-DEFINED FAST MOVING UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY TREND WINDS GRIDS TO ECMWF AS IT
HAS MORE CONSISTENT. AT ANY RATE THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF GULF
MOISTURE BOTH ON LATE SAT/SUN AND AGAIN ON LATE MON/TUE SHOULD BE
A MAJOR PLAYER IN KEEPING POPS ELEVATED DURING THOSE SEVERAL DAYS.
ONCE ALL THE PCPN PASSES...A RATHER COLD PERIOD TO ENSUE. EXTEND-
ED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH SLIDING DOWN
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE STATE. ONE LAST WRINKLE IN THE LONG-
RANGE PROGS ARE THE HINTS THAT ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE TRY-
ING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD AIR HAS SETTLED HERE. NOT
GOING WITH A BEAR WATCH ATTM HOWEVER. 41

[Katdaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
522 AM CST THU JAN 27 2011

ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH BULK OF COLD AIR MOVING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. WILL BROADBRUSH LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW MORE ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST...POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z ECMWF SHOWED 546
1000-500 THICKNESS LINE PERSISTING ALONG PORT LAVACA-LAREDO LINE
WEDNESDAY. IF COLD AIR PUSH IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...THIS WOULD
BE A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE REGION. WAY TOO
EARLY TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE WITH MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
LACKING BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.