January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a mighty wet weekend ahead...

[WeatherGAGA]

Hello friends I never post. Can someone help me what time will it rain on Sunday? I have the half marathon. Any help please?

[Andrew]

Hello friends I never post. Can someone help me what time will it rain on Sunday? I have the half marathon. Any help please?

Well the marathon does look wet. There is still some questions relating to if it will rain during the marathon. It will be a wet one Sat-Sat night but different models show different outlooks for Sunday morning. Some show rain in the morning while some show it holding off to the evening. If I was you I would prepare for rain and wet roads. I will be there too so i will be keeping up with the forecast.

[srainhoutx]

It's looking mighty damp this weekend...

[srainhoutx]

For those with outdoor activities this weekend...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT TRANQUIL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE...AND QUITE INTERESTING...CHAIN
OF EVENTS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS WILL SLOWLY BACK WSW`ERLIES
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PWATS ARE FORECAST
TO PICK UP FROM LOW-ISH 0.25-0.50 INCH VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES
FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH MID-LATE SUNDAY. THESE PWATS WOULD BE
2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ENSEMBLE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF S/W PASSAGE...WITH THE EURO SOLUTION LAGGING THE GFS
IN TIMING BY 6-12 HOURS. LOWERING PRESSURES AHEAD OF A CENTRAL
TEXAS SFC LOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL ENHANCE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MODELING SHOWING THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LL CONV DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...OR JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...
ALBEIT TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE WILL ULTIMATELY BE THE DRIVER TO ANY
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE S/W`S EASTERN PASSAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT...BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP THAT MAY GET CHANNELED ALONG A 85-925
REGION OF CONVERGENCE (WITHIN A LIKELY HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT).

[srainhoutx]

Saturday evening into Sunday morning is looking mighty wet...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN BRANCH BRINGING CIRRUS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MOST OF THE MORNING. A VERY PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP.
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL START MOVING EAST AND WILL TAP INTO
RATHER RICH GULF MOISTURE SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY
AND THEN LL MOISTURE RAMPS UP QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKING WET AS 1-1.4" PW ARRIVE WITH THE S/W SWEEPING THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE...HIGH POPS ARE IN ORDER. MODERATE WAA IN
PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIM BUT LI OF 0 TO -2 POSSIBLE/CAPE
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS...GFS HITS THE NORTHERN CWA HARD AROUND
06Z SUN...ECMWF NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST 06-15Z (AND WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY) AND THE NAM CENTRAL 8-18Z. IN THIS FORECAST HAVE
FAVORED THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAINS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY
BY 10 AM FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL HAVE
SHRA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BUT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON
SATURDAY. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BAJA...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVE/ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND REACH CENTRAL
TX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE
NORTHERN CA COAST LATE SATURDAY COULD YIELD COME ISOLATED TSTMS
MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS/OFFSHORE WATERS.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT...
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL TX
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
WEST TX AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION/MOISTURE RETURN OTHERWISE OCCURS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST TX. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE CONSEQUENTIAL DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE
SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY/NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITHIN A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR NEAR/EAST OF A SHARPENING SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE BASED STRONG/PERHAPS
SEVERE TSTMS IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR A CAPPING INVERSION IN
THE MID LEVELS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTED AS WELL GIVEN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
AGAIN THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN WITHIN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

IN ALL...BECAUSE OF SOME LARGE SCALE UNCERTAINTY AND UNKNOWNS
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN/CAPPING...WILL DEFER TO
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR POTENTIAL INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER.. 01/28/2011

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z WRF suggests a wet early Sunday morning across the area...

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S-CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST IS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH NRN MEXICO...REACHING WRN TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CNTRL TX SATURDAY NIGHT.

...S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

WRN GULF BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING AND LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS SRN TX SATURDAY. SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING SRN HIGH PLAINS LEE LOW
AND TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NWD WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S AS FAR
NORTH AS NERN TX SATURDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ADVECT EML
AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTRIBUTING TO A CAP MUCH OF THE DAY. COMBINATION OF DIABATIC
WARMING...A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. PRESENCE OF A CAP AND
WEAK FORCING SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AS DEEPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT MOVES OVER THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. STORMS DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNSET WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITH -17C TO -20C AT 500 MB...STEEP LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL/STOPPKOTTE.. 01/29/2011

[srainhoutx]

With the potential of Severe Weather, the Chevron Marathon and other outdoor activities planned this weekend and all the interest in next weeks Arctic Air, I'll sticky this thread to keep it at the top for discussions regard the events of the weekend. We have a very active Saturday night/Sunday morning ahead weather wise, folks...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
511 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM SETX HAS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO LOOK FORWARD
TO AS UPPER LOW OVER BAJA MOVES EAST. BELOW 700 MB THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL
MOISTEN AS IT DOES SO LEADING TO MORE LOW AND MID CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIM RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY AS PROFILES MOISTEN
UP AND UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS COOLING THE
PROFILES ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT RAIN TO SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT A LARGE
SWATH OF RA/SHRA/ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST
PROFILE AND MODERATE MOIST WAA (CAPPED DOWN LOW) BUT WITH
INSTABILITY ABOVE 850MB WILL HELP THE STORMS BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. THE GREATER INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON TO HUNTSVILLE TO
BRENHAM MAINLY FROM 06-15Z. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER A PORTION
OF THE AREA AND HAVE AN AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE. IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE IN BOTH GFS/NAM OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND LIFT THAT MARCHES DIRECTLY THROUGH THE REGION.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS COME IN WITH 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS. EXPECT A LARGE MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN ITS WAKE SO HAVE AN ABRUPT DROP IN POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH BY AROUND 10 AM EXPECT THE RAINS TO BE WINDING DOWN
ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY. LINGERING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING SKIES COULD HELP TO FUEL ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST THOUGH NOTICEABLE DRYING SHOULD BE OCCURRING
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
FALLS. MONDAY ANOTHER SURGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH A
WARM FRONT AND MAY AGAIN SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME ADVECTION FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS BAJA CA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN MEXICO
TODAY AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION THIS EVENING...BEFORE EMERGING
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH TX LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER TX WILL ALLOW
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TX BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-750 J/KG.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS TX DUE TO A STRONG MID
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT. INCREASING
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BEGIN TO ERODE THE CAP ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DRT-LRD BY 00Z...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORM SCALE MODEL
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
AFTER 06Z...POSING A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE RISK AREA.

..HART/COHEN.. 01/29/2011

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z WRF paints a very wet and stormy picture across the area Sunday morning...

[wxman57]

It does look like the rain will be delayed enough to make for a wet marathon. Probably a temperature near 60 degrees with light to moderate rain the whole race.

[srainhoutx]

HPC QPF forecast:

...SERN TX...
CLSD LOW MOVG OVR BAJA THIS MRNG IS FCST TO CONT LIFTG ENEWD AND
ACRS TX LATER TDA/TNGT AS A POS TILTED MIDLVL SYS. MDLS ARE SHOWG
SVRL WEAKER SHRTWVS EJECTING EWD/AHD OF THE SYS THAT WL HELP INCRS
DEEP LYRD RHS...BUT THE MAIN MID/UPR SUPPORT WL ARRIVE TNGT WITH
BETTER HGT FALLS AND DECENT UPR JET SUPPORT. MDLS ARE SHOWING SOME
INCRS IN LOLVL THERMAL FORCG/CVRG TNGT...WITH ELEV CAPE DVLPG THAT
SHLD RESULT IN AN EXPANDG AREA OF CNVCTN. LOLVL MSTR IS ALRDY
LIFTG NWD FM THE WRN GULF OF MEX WITH MDLS INDICATING PWS INCRSG
TO 1.00-1.25 INCHES. THIS SHLD BE ENUF MSTR TO SUPPORT A BROAD
REGION OF LGT/MOD RNFL. ISOLD HVY AMTS WL BE PSBL LATER TNGT AS
CNVCTN WL HAVE THE PTNL TO BCM MORE ORGANIZED AND PSBLY SFC BASED
AHD OF A WEAK SFC BNDRY PUSHG ACRS TX AND ALNG THE STGR 8H MSTR
FLUX.







HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
749 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-301400-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
749 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A
COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH
SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. THE RAINS SHOULD DEPART THE
AREA TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
CHILLY FEW DAYS WILL FOLLOW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SOME AREAS MAINLY NORTH MAY HAVE A HARD FREEZE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AFTER 9 PM THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY.

[tireman4]

It does look like the rain will be delayed enough to make for a wet marathon. Probably a temperature near 60 degrees with light to moderate rain the whole race.

Oh man, not good. 60's for marathoning...not good....my friends are not liking this at all. I still hope Brett gets his sub 2:10 and who knows...Ryan Hall ( who is the ONLY American to run a sub 1:00 Half Marathon) might get another sub 1:00...

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH MEXICO WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE WRN CA COAST AS
AN UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PACIFIC MOVES SEWD INTO THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE...DRY STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN TX...
A BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING NEWD FROM
MEXICO INTO SRN/ERN TX...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION LOCATED AT 16Z ALONG THE WRN MEXICO COAST NEAR 28.5N AND
111.5W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SRN TX NEAR LRD BY 12Z SUN. ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CREPT INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SRN
TX...AND WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...STRONG CAPPING AND
LACK OF STRONG SOLAR RADIATION SHOULD INHIBIT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE REGION
TONIGHT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAP SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...MUCAPES FROM 500-750
J/KG...FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES
FROM -16 TO -18C SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE STORM SCALE MODELS INDICATE STORMS COULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO SMALL LINE SEGMENTS...WHICH WOULD ALSO POSE A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SOUTH OF
AN AUS-HOU LINE.

..IMY/HURLBUT.. 01/29/2011

[wxman57]

12Z GFS says around 60 and moderate rain fro the whole race. That would actually be a bit "warm" for most of the hard-core runners, though they won't like the rain. I think the big runners like 40s and 50s for running weather so they don't "overheat".

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1119 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

TXZ229>234-239>247-300300-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
1119 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. AS
LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN NEAR THE RIO GRANDE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE
ACTIVITY SPREADING FARTHER WEST AS THE IMPACTS OF THE DISTURBANCE
TAKE EFFECT. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH NO RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED BY NOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF A FREER TO SINTON TO ROCKPORT LINE. SOUTH
OF THIS LINE...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 55 TO 65
MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVER AREAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...TO BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES...TO NEARLY 1 INCH NEAR VICTORIA.

[tireman4]

[quote="wxman57"]12Z GFS says around 60 and moderate rain fro the whole race. That would actually be a bit "warm" for most of the hard-core runners, though they won't like the rain. I think the big runners like 40s and 50s for running weather so they don't "overheat".

40's and low 50's are perfect weather.

[wxman666]

01z SPC Update:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

...S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS FORECAST. EVENING RAOB DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE...DEL RIO AND
CORPUS CHRISTI INDICATE AN EML HAS ADVECTED THROUGH THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN THROUGH S-CNTRL TX...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEEP CONVECTION. RUC ANALYSIS DATA AND WV IMAGERY
INDICATE SEVERAL WEAKER HIGH LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL JET ARE MOVING THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL TX AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS STILL LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO. THE
VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THESE FEATURES IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION ROOTED NEAR 700 MB ABOVE THE CAPPING
LAYER. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMA IS UNLIKELY TO
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CAP.

DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY FROM S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX AS THE STRONGER VORT MAX OVER
NRN MEXICO ADVANCES THROUGH S-CNTRL TX. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THIS VERTICAL MOTION AND DISPERSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF INITIATION.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL NOT FORM UNTIL AFTER 10Z
WHEN ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE EML. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT...A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL
POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. WILL MAINTAIN
15% PROBABILITIES FOR MAINLY HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL UPON CAP EROSION AND INITIATION OF DEEPER STORMS.

[Ptarmigan]

Radar looks quiet for the most part. Some storms forming to the north as of 9:14 PM CST.
I think the radar will really light up come after midnight.