February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a strong Arctic Front diving into TX Monday evening/Tuesday morning. That model has also slowed down the progression of the short wave as well...hmmm...

01262011 12Z Euro f144.gif

01262011 12Z Euro f168.gif

01262011 12Z Euro f192.gif

01262011 12Z Euro f216.gif

01262011 12Z Euro f240.gif

[Andrew]

What do you think, Andrew? Do you care about the ice?

I don't care for ice but if we have it I'm going to enjoy the possible day off and "fun of it". I don't wish it on anyone though.

[TexasMetBlake]

Well, I suspect it's time for me to start believing it could get really, really cold here?

[jasons2k]

From firsthand experience - a little ice can be fun if it gives a free day off and it's not that bad and people stay home.

You don't want much of it though, especially with all the trees we have here (esp N and NE sections).

Ice Storm = massive power outages = no fun at all. It would be like Ike, but we'd be shivering instead of sweating.

I did it for a week in Birmingham, AL back in 1993 and that was enough for a lifetime for me, thanks!

[harpman]

What do these current trends imply for the La. gulf coast? Thanks in advance for your replies.

[biggerbyte]

If this all comes together over Texas like it very well could, including around here, things could get real messy. I'm sure everyone is staying on top of things. If the models show an ice event come Friday night, then folks had better at least prepare for one.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro (and Canadian) are even colder than the 00Z runs. I still don't see much post-frontal moisture, though. And with the front driving well into the southern Gulf by Wednesday, the chances of a coastal low to throw moisture over the cold air are about zero. But the Euro and Canadian do indicate at least a weak disturbance (or two) moving south into Texas later in the week. If that's the case, then we could see passing snow flurries across Texas but no big snow event. And I do not currently see much of a freezing rain threat.

As for Houston, if the 12Z Euro or Canadian verify, then we could be looking at the coldest air of the season by a fair bit. Teens for Houston would be possible, though I wouldn't forecast such temps quite yet. Again, I do not buy the GFS solution at all. I think it holds too much energy back.

Farther east along the LA coast, the cold air could be a little colder than you've already seen, but not as dramatically colder as for the TX coast.

[Baseballdude2915]

You something is on its way when Wxman talks up the possibility of teens. What we get exactly, remains to be seen on Sunday.

Good to see the board light up like this. Where's Ed?

[cristina99]

now it's looking like my kind of weather. When it gets cold like this, I make soup for my co-workers and I'm trying to decide what kind to fix next week. Tell me again, how come David Paul or Frank haven't said anything about a really cold arctic event - and, when will they mention something about it?

[srainhoutx]

Where's Ed?

He's too busy posting about Jimmy Buffet on another Forum.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Update: No change...

12Z MODEL UPDATE...

GFS ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED SYNOPTICALLY FROM ITS EARLIER
RUNS. GEFS MEAN ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH ITS SW US
UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT OTHERWISE HELD STEADY. THE 12Z UKMET
SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF... SHOWING A SHARPER
TROUGH NEAR 96W BY TUE/D6. CANADIAN IS IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS. WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW AND LEAVE EARLIER FORECAST
UNCHANGED FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.


FRACASSO/ROTH

[srainhoutx]

Brownsville buying the GFS solution regarding the moisture...for now...

BASED ON
THE GFS...THE DRY FORECAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
AND A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS THE VERY
LARGE UPPER LOW DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN AZ AND
NM. BOTTOM LINE IS IT APPEARS THAT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ALONG WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN IN THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR BEYOND? THE ONE CAVEAT IS THE EURO IS MARKEDLY
DIFFERENT. IT BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT COME INTO PLAY UNTIL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SO...BASICALLY COLDER BUT DRY. AM HEDGING WITH THE GFS BASED ON
CURRENT PATTERN AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST INCLUDE ADJUSTING TEMPS DOWN
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH STILL MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES BEST
PRECIP OPPORTUNITIES FROM THE LATEST GFS RUN. WAVE HEIGHT
FORECASTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARDS TUE AND WED BASED ON THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH FROPA.

[srainhoutx]

HPC surface chart valid for Wednesday, February 2, 2011 12Z...

[Andrew]

I'm glad the board is coming alive. There hasn't been nearly enough activity with the potential of the system. I think the 00z Euro woke some people up.... Including myself.

One thing to keep in mind as we get closer to the event, is many times this winter forecasts have busted with temps dropping below the expected temperature. Last night was an example of that so be prepared for a few degrees colder just in case the temps do bust again.

[harpman]

Let's just hope against hope that we all get some love from Houston to New Orleans!

[Andrew]

Let's just hope against hope that we all get some love from Houston to New Orleans!

No you will get plenty of cold weather love. I think the 12z euro is going to be a pretty accurate representation for how the cold air is going to filter south. Maybe a tad farther west but I can see you getting some cold stuff.

[harpman]

When I say love I mean frozen stuff from above as well.

[jasons2k]

I'm glad the board is coming alive. There hasn't been nearly enough activity with the potential of the system. I think the 00z Euro woke some people up.... Including myself.

One thing to keep in mind as we get closer to the event, is many times this winter forecasts have busted with temps dropping below the expected temperature. Last night was an example of that so be prepared for a few degrees colder just in case the temps do bust again.

I think last night was an exception. Back in December I was supposed to see 23F and only saw 28F. And in both January cold snaps (the two earlier this month) I was also warmer than forecast (was supposed to see ~24/25F and saw 28F/29F).

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the consensus is that it will be cold. The only question is, how cold will it be and will there be sleet and/or snow.

[southerngale]

I'm glad the board is coming alive. There hasn't been nearly enough activity with the potential of the system. I think the 00z Euro woke some people up.... Including myself.

One thing to keep in mind as we get closer to the event, is many times this winter forecasts have busted with temps dropping below the expected temperature. Last night was an example of that so be prepared for a few degrees colder just in case the temps do bust again.

I think last night was an exception. Back in December I was supposed to see 23F and only saw 28F. And in both January cold snaps (the two earlier this month) I was also warmer than forecast (was supposed to see ~24/25F and saw 28F/29F).

I guess that depends on where you are and/or who is doing the forecasting. Every once in a while, it's a tad warmer than forecast here (NWS), but many, many times, I've been a little or a decent amount colder than forecast. So much so that whatever my forecasted low is, I can usually assume it's going to be several degrees colder.