I will keep my lips sealed about abc 13.
Anyway, this is the very reason I didn't get excited. The Euro, which used to be the voice of reason, has had a lot of variability as of late and really can't be trusted. While some will say the models accurately predicted the last cold spell, it was severely over-estimated and the '89 type freeze that was shown with a 1070 high never materialized. I've noticed a lot of model hugging here (tonight it's the Canadian holding on to a freezing rain event). The point is you have to look at the 'voice of reason' which tonight is the GFS. You have to ask yourself, which is most realistic for HOUSTON, TEXAS? Reality says the Euro and CMC are out to lunch. While the GFS does show cold, I'm not inclined to believe that this is going to be anything out of the ordinary. Could I be wrong? Of course! However, I'm not a big fan of the terminology, 'but things could change.' Sure, the models may very well change on the fine details, but it is my personal belief that inside of day 6 and 7, the models *usually* have a decent handle on what the upper-level pattern will look like and how it will evolve. I mean I COULD be a millionaire if I played the lottery, but realistically I'm not going to be. I struggle with the idea of a big winter storm here next week as I just don't see the moisture.
I'll repeat what wxman said--the cold air is in Canada. That's good. Also, the models aren't showing a big high pressure coming down the Rockies (1050+). The good news is you don't need a high that big anyway to get cold air here...especially if the cold is at the surface. However, I just don't see a nice McFarland Signature or Omega block over Alaska to send this down with temps dropping to record levels here. For those who say 'but the freeze line is over us!'---that's fine and all, but for a good ICE event, you need temps a few degrees BELOW freezing. Hovering at 32 is not going to do it for you...not if you wan't an ice storm like 1997.
All in all, I think we may see highs in the 40s next week with mostly cloudy skies. I just really don't see the models trending colder. In my crystal ball, I'd suspect that the models will only get drier and slightly warmer as we close in on this 'event.' Just my thoughts.