January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[nuby3]

Looking like it might be pretty cold for the marathon this year. That's funny, because I just ran the one in Honolulu in Dec. and it was 83* with 97% humidity when we finished.

[txsnowmaker]

The new Canadian model run is apparently raising some eyebrows in other forums, with some suggesting that it is depicting a major snow storm for Texas. Would someone who has seen it mind explaining what this run is showing for our area in particular?

[Andrew]

The new Canadian model run is apparently raising some eyebrows in other forums, with some suggesting that it is depicting a major snow storm for Texas. Would someone who has seen it mind explaining what this run is showing for our area in particular?

The Canadian shows the cold air coming down hard and fast! Really hard and fast in fact. That along with a passing cut off low is causing some serious snow and ice accumulations across the state. While the Canadian only goes out to 240 around here we would most likely get in on the action with some pretty good totals. At this point though it is still just speculation and if you ask anyone about the Canadian they will tell you it can predict some pretty wild scenarios. Now to the Euro.

[txsnowmaker]

The new Canadian model run is apparently raising some eyebrows in other forums, with some suggesting that it is depicting a major snow storm for Texas. Would someone who has seen it mind explaining what this run is showing for our area in particular?

The Canadian shows the cold air coming down hard and fast! Really hard and fast in fact. That along with a passing cut off low is causing some serious snow and ice accumulations across the state. While the Canadian only goes out to 240 around here we would most likely get in on the action with some pretty good totals. At this point though it is still just speculation and if you ask anyone about the Canadian they will tell you it can predict some pretty wild scenarios. Now to the Euro.

Andrew, many thanks! Look forward to seeing what the Euro has to show...

[Andrew]

Euro looks good too as the cold air filters south with a cut off developing in the NW and heading south. Should create some wintry weather in Texas.

[txsnowmaker]

May the trend continue...

[srainhoutx]

We will need to pay close attention the next 48 hours as some major changes have occurred in the guidance. Heavy rainfall is looking much more likely. There are even hints of perhaps some residual moisture as colder air wraps in behind the storm system. HGX covers the concerns...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
GOING TO BE MAKING SOME FAIRLY LARGE CHANGES TO THE FCST MON & MON
NIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MCLDY LATER THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE FLOWS BACK INTO THE
REGION. GFS HAS NOW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS IN SHOWING A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS
BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO NRN PARTS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVNG THEN
STALLING NEAR THE COAST BY SUNRISE MON. STILL NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
MOISTURE TO INITIALLY WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME SCT AREAS OF -RA IN ADVANCE. MODELS ARE IN ALL IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST. THIS LOW IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD UP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
MON & MON NIGHT AS A POTENT TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PLAINS IN
TO N/NE TX AND LA. SINCE IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INLAND.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO 60% ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE AREA WHICH
MAY NEED TO INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL IF GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
PERSISTS. AS THE SFC LOW AND H5 TROF PASS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
BE ALLOWED TO FILTER IN. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MAKE SURE THERE`S
NOT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER BY THEN AS THE 540 THICKNESS
LINE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NE ZONES.



SPC:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE TX COAST TO SW LA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES WILL DIG
SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE TX COAST WITH A MOIST AXIS SETTING UP
ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SKIRT THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S F REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI
WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE AROUND VICTORIA...HOUSTON AND
GALVESTON BY MONDAY EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SHOULD
MOVE EWD INTO SWRN LA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST MONDAY EVENING SHOW
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG PEAKING IN THE 06Z TO 09Z
TIMEFRAME. THIS ALONG WITH 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR STORMS VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. FOR THESE REASONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE
QUITE LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SEE TEXT AREA ATTM. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS.

..BROYLES.. 01/23/2011

[Portastorm]

Interesting changes in the forecasts in the last 12 hours. Even here in AUS, we went from a forecast of partly cloudy and low 60s to 20-30% rain chances and temps some 10 degrees colder for the next few days.

That upper trof axis looks to be moving across the state at a fairly low latitude. The normal warm-bias NAM is looking cold in parts of east Texas. Wouldn't surprise me to see some reports of sleet or something early this coming week from northern parts of the HGX forecast area.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting changes in the forecasts in the last 12 hours. Even here in AUS, we went from a forecast of partly cloudy and low 60s to 20-30% rain chances and temps some 10 degrees colder for the next few days.

That upper trof axis looks to be moving across the state at a fairly low latitude. The normal warm-bias NAM is looking cold in parts of east Texas. Wouldn't surprise me to see some reports of sleet or something early this coming week from northern parts of the HGX forecast area.

The 12Z NAM continues the trend.

[ronyan]

Canada is looking a little warmer this morning, hopefully it will get a fresh batch of bitter air before the front comes down.

[srainhoutx]

FYI: A lot of missing data for the 12Z NCEP suite...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Jan 23 13:44:31 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 231343
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1343Z SUN JAN 23 2011
THE 12Z NAM BEGAN ON SCHD AND THERE WERE MORE THAN
USUAL RAOB PBLMS OVER N AMER BUT WITH 29 CAN 11 MEX
AND 8 CARIB RAOBS AVBL. RAOB RECAP...
AKN/70326 - POWER FAILURE...CODE 10144.
FFC/72215 - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10158.
KPP/78970 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142.
NCC/78988 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142.
MZL/76654 - MISCELLANEOUS ISSUE...CODE 10159.
BMX/72230 - SHORT TO 472 MB...CODE 10159.
INL/72747 - WIND DATA MISSING.
YMW/71722 - UNAVAILABLE.
YVP/71906 - DEL HGTS/TEMPS 871 MB AND UP...UP TO 6 K WARM.
LIH/91165 - DELETED TEMPS 841-774 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC LR.
KPB/78954 - DELETED TEMPS 890...715-704...674-672 MB...
SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NO CWD IS IN EFFECT PRESENTLY HOWEVER NWS WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVPMT OF A POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST
COAST WINTER STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
$$
STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests the heaviest rain will be along the Coast and offshore. That model also suggests a robust cold pocket aloft with the Upper Low over SE TX as well...

[sleetstorm]

The day after tomorrow will be, needless to say, one week from February. Are any of the models still depicting sleet/snow falling in southeast Texas or no?

[cisa]

What kind of time line are we looking at?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to suggest a big winter storm across much of TX...

[wxman57]

12Z GFS says nothing for Houston. You'll have to go much farther SOUTH for snow.

[biggerbyte]

LoL

Well, it is fun to watch, at least.

What was that song from Aerosmith? I believe it was "Dream On"..



We'll need a few more days before calling for a big Texas winter dump. I'll tell you one thing. If the folks down south get a big winter event, and we get nothing, this place is going to be in my rear view mirror as I head to my new home in Alaska. Winter, they have. LoL

[cisa]

12Z GFS says nothing for Houston. You'll have to go much farther SOUTH for snow.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

Wouldn't that be the biggest bummer? Snow all around us and none here?

[Andrew]

CMC says not as much moisture but still a wet day. Then it gets cold.

[BiggieSmalls]

Remember, the week that we are discussing is Superbowl Week in Dallas; I know the host committee can not be happy about the idea of snow and winter weather. I remember the same thing happening in Atlanta about 10 years ago for the Superbowl. The visiting Yankees will not be happy!