Rich wrote:Am I not looking at something right? Because when I look at the 18z gfs it shows snow for SE Texas around hour 252. By hour 276
it is showing snow all the way to the Gulf!
Rich wrote:
Am I not looking at something right? Because when I look at the 18z gfs it shows snow for SE Texas around hour 252. By hour 276
it is showing snow all the way to the Gulf!
Let us pray that all we get is sleet and snow and not freezing rain. Also, if this feasible weather occasion does come to fruition then everyone in this forum needs to be as thoroughly prepared for it as feasible. Have any of you ever heard of an ice melting product called "Heat"?
Last edited by sleetstorm on Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
oh come on...we haven't had a significant ice storm since 1997. I remember that l ike yesterday, too. You could hear the trees snapping all around...one after the other. It was a mess when it was all over.
Candy Cane wrote:oh come on...we haven't had a significant ice storm since 1997. I remember that l ike yesterday, too. You could hear the trees snapping all around...one after the other. It was a mess when it was all over.
with me being just a weather novice / enthusiast, i don't quite understand all these maps. I was only 2 when the snow of 1973 came through, and I remember the ice storm of 1997. Wasn't there some ice in early (like January) 2007? I remember that event, because it coincided with me losing my job. I really remember the ice of 1997 - I heard the transformer blow in the nigh and woke up to ice covering everything - dad had to come get me. The prospect of another very cold blast sounds interesting, but I agree with Candy Cane - it would be dangerous. I still like the cold weather because come August, some of us will be wishing for those cold days.
If we step back and take a look at some of the signals that we're seeing, then it seems likely that there will be some type of significant event at the beginning of February. When I say that the pattern evolving appears similar to 1993, I don't mean that I expect another massive Gulf and east coast storm. It's possible that the pattern just leads to a major nor'easter.
What we do know is that there is some VERY cold air up in Canada now, and lots of it. With the pattern evolving, we have a very good shot at getting some quite cold Arctic air down here. Whether or not we get any frozen precip will depend on the details in the upcoming pattern - something we can't be sure of this far out.
The way I see it, there are 3 main possibilities for next week (around Feb 1-3):
1. Models are incorrect with the overall pattern and it's just more of the same (current weather). I'd say this isn't the highest probability, probably the lowest probability of the 3 options.
2. Significant dry surge of Canadian/Arctic air that may drop temps into the 20 degree range here or lower. Very hard freeze but no precip involved.
3. Moderately cold Canadian/Arctic air intrusion with secondary impulse moving through the cold air. This is what the GFS is forecasting and the Euro is hinting at around day 11-12.
I'm not ready to buy #3 just yet, but I could easily believe that we could get quite cold here in 9-10 days (#2 above). It's just so hard to get the timing and conditions here right for snow.
wxman57 wrote:If we step back and take a look at some of the signals that we're seeing, then it seems likely that there will be some type of significant event at the beginning of February. When I say that the pattern evolving appears similar to 1993, I don't mean that I expect another massive Gulf and east coast storm. It's possible that the pattern just leads to a major nor'easter.
What we do know is that there is some VERY cold air up in Canada now, and lots of it. With the pattern evolving, we have a very good shot at getting some quite cold Arctic air down here. Whether or not we get any frozen precip will depend on the details in the upcoming pattern - something we can't be sure of this far out.
The way I see it, there are 3 main possibilities for next week (around Feb 1-3):
1. Models are incorrect with the overall pattern and it's just more of the same (current weather). I'd say this isn't the highest probability, probably the lowest probability of the 3 options.
2. Significant dry surge of Canadian/Arctic air that may drop temps into the 20 degree range here or lower. Very hard freeze but no precip involved.
3. Moderately cold Canadian/Arctic air intrusion with secondary impulse moving through the cold air. This is what the GFS is forecasting and the Euro is hinting at around day 11-12.
I'm not ready to buy #3 just yet, but I could easily believe that we could get quite cold here in 9-10 days (#2 above). It's just so hard to get the timing and conditions here right for snow.
Thanks for your input wxman. I was thinking the same thing. I am proud of our members here as no one is biting too hard on one scenario or another this far out. I have a feeling the 00z model runs will put more fuel into this debate.
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cristina99 wrote:with me being just a weather novice / enthusiast, i don't quite understand all these maps. I was only 2 when the snow of 1973 came through, and I remember the ice storm of 1997. Wasn't there some ice in early (like January) 2007? I remember that event, because it coincided with me losing my job. I really remember the ice of 1997 - I heard the transformer blow in the nigh and woke up to ice covering everything - dad had to come get me. The prospect of another very cold blast sounds interesting, but I agree with Candy Cane - it would be dangerous. I still like the cold weather because come August, some of us will be wishing for those cold days.
There was an ice storm in January 2007. It was around MLK Day, but it was nothing like January 1997. Yes, I remember transformers exploding and power going out because of frozen trees.
Hey guys. I have been skimming through the discussion on the early February potential storm and it looks like I will be back on for awhile tracking this thing with y'all. I see there is some talk about the models depicting the potential for some winter wx, but seem to be wavering back and forth (what a shocker). I am curious to know though....how does this February arctic air compare to the past few arctic blasts we've had? Does it seem stronger? As far as precip goes....I have read wxman57's input (thanks wxman) and understand it's still too early to tell, but am curious to know if the models have been diligent at all. Any input would be great and I look forward to this next ride.
wxman57 wrote:If we step back and take a look at some of the signals that we're seeing, then it seems likely that there will be some type of significant event at the beginning of February. When I say that the pattern evolving appears similar to 1993, I don't mean that I expect another massive Gulf and east coast storm. It's possible that the pattern just leads to a major nor'easter.
What we do know is that there is some VERY cold air up in Canada now, and lots of it. With the pattern evolving, we have a very good shot at getting some quite cold Arctic air down here. Whether or not we get any frozen precip will depend on the details in the upcoming pattern - something we can't be sure of this far out.
The way I see it, there are 3 main possibilities for next week (around Feb 1-3):
1. Models are incorrect with the overall pattern and it's just more of the same (current weather). I'd say this isn't the highest probability, probably the lowest probability of the 3 options.
2. Significant dry surge of Canadian/Arctic air that may drop temps into the 20 degree range here or lower. Very hard freeze but no precip involved.
3. Moderately cold Canadian/Arctic air intrusion with secondary impulse moving through the cold air. This is what the GFS is forecasting and the Euro is hinting at around day 11-12.
I'm not ready to buy #3 just yet, but I could easily believe that we could get quite cold here in 9-10 days (#2 above). It's just so hard to get the timing and conditions here right for snow.
Thanks for your input wxman. I was thinking the same thing. I am proud of our members here as no one is biting too hard on one scenario or another this far out. I have a feeling the 00z model runs will put more fuel into this debate.
Yeah we appreciate your sound advice and expert info wxman. I hit on the cold air in Canada and Alaska last weekend I think. All that needs to happen now is for the cork to be removed and let the air start spilling south. I really don't think ATTM that it is a matter of if more of a matter of when.
What you have to pay attention to is the fact that the cold air is there. The temps are consistently running -25 to -50+ on any given day across much of Canada and Alaska. That is the main difference already from the previous outbreaks of this year and last year. The models also indicate a evolving H5 pattern that could be favorable for bringing down colder air. The reason I'm not excited is that the models do a good job of sampling over the United States. And while the models do well with sampling Canada, it's not AS good. It's even less so when you get to the North Pole and Siberia. Any slight little deviation from what the models depict could throw off the whole mess. It's also encouraging to see the temps so cold with such a 'low' pressure. When the models paint a 1070 hPa high, that is a bit unbelievable. You only see one or two of those in a life time. But with the models showing a 'modest' 1044 high or so, I'm inclined to believe the models have a better grip and aren't as out to lunch as a 1070 high would lead me to believe. So we'll see. As has been said before, I think it is clear that there are changes coming? Will it be the freeze of the century? Very likely not. Could it top last years freeze of 20? Maybe. Probable? No. It's Houston.
Candy Cane wrote:What you have to pay attention to is the fact that the cold air is there. The temps are consistently running -25 to -50+ on any given day across much of Canada and Alaska. That is the main difference already from the previous outbreaks of this year and last year. The models also indicate a evolving H5 pattern that could be favorable for bringing down colder air. The reason I'm not excited is that the models do a good job of sampling over the United States. And while the models do well with sampling Canada, it's not AS good. It's even less so when you get to the North Pole and Siberia. Any slight little deviation from what the models depict could throw off the whole mess. It's also encouraging to see the temps so cold with such a 'low' pressure. When the models paint a 1070 hPa high, that is a bit unbelievable. You only see one or two of those in a life time. But with the models showing a 'modest' 1044 high or so, I'm inclined to believe the models have a better grip and aren't as out to lunch as a 1070 high would lead me to believe. So we'll see. As has been said before, I think it is clear that there are changes coming? Will it be the freeze of the century? Very likely not. Could it top last years freeze of 20? Maybe. Probable? No. It's Houston.
Man that last bust really hit you hard didn't it?
FWIW the 00z gfs loses it "kinda"
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srainhoutx wrote:The storm is still there and has been for days. A 1040+ high pressure to the N in NE and the GFS turns the flow from the S? Not likely...
Yea that is why I said 'kinda'. Gfs does some weird stuff sometimes. I can't wait until this gets into the better resolution range. That will answer a lot of questions.
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srainhoutx wrote:The storm is still there and has been for days. A 1040+ high pressure to the N in NE and the GFS turns the flow from the S? Not likely...
Yea that is why I said 'kinda'. Gfs does some weird stuff sometimes. I can't wait until this gets into the better resolution range. That will answer a lot of questions.
1 and a half weeks to speculate and go insane over model inconsistency.
