January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[tireman4]

Man the temperature drops are incredible. 34 at Waco ( at this hour), 43 at College Station. Goodness.

[Katdaddy]

Cloudy, dark, and windy in downtown Houston

[srainhoutx]

Winds gusting to the mid 30's now. Just had a 8 degree drop in temps in less than 5 minutes in NW Harris County.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is forecasting low 20s with highs in the low 30s here Feb. 3rd. Of course, that's the very long range and subject to considerable error. I'm still looking for that first 80F (or first 70) in the long-range 2m temps...

[srainhoutx]

HPC giving some credence to the digging short wave idea next week...

12Z UPDATE... NEW GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DAY 3 SUN PLAINS EVOLUTION WITH A BETTER
DEFINED SFC REFLECTION THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE FINAL FCST
INCORPORATES IDEAS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WITH THE GFS LESS
FAVORED AS IT IS ON THE DEEP SIDE OF THE SOLN SPREAD. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT AS HIGH AS BEFORE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST. THE
UKMET/CMC HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SCENARIO OF PULLING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY SWWD INTO NWRN MEXICO BY DAY 5 TUE
THUS LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/EWD WRN ATLC SYSTEM. HOWEVER
THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY... ALBEIT IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORM... TOWARD A MORE CONSOLIDATED NRN STREAM MID LVL SYSTEM THAT
ULTIMATELY MAINTAINS AN EAST COAST SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SPREAD. SOME TIMING/DETAIL DIFFS ARE NOTED WITH UPSTREAM
FEATURES WITH MORE DATA DESIRED BEFORE MAKING A CONFIDENT
ADJUSTMENT. FOR DAYS 4-7 THE FULL EVALUATION OF LATEST SOLNS IN
LIGHT OF SENSITIVITY OF THE FCST PATTERN FAVORS ONLY MINOR DETAIL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE UPDATED PRELIM ISSUANCE.



THE LARGE SCALE MEAN PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDS
OVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THE MOST EXTREME READINGS ARE FCST
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SUN-MON WHEN HIGHS MAY BE UP TO 15-25 F
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
EVENTUAL NWD EXTENT OF WINTRY PCPN SPREADING EWD FROM THE PLAINS
SUN ONWARD... WITH POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OVER THE NORTHEAST BY
TUE-WED RANGING FROM A MAJOR EVENT TO NO PCPN AT ALL. CURRENT
FCST PREFERENCES ARE TOWARD HAVING AT LEAST SOME PCPN REACHING
NERN AREAS. MEANWHILE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF GULF INFLOW
THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY MDT-HVY RNFL OVER EXTREME SRN AREAS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
GRTLKS/OH VALLEY MAY SEE ONE OR MORE DAYS OF LGT SNOW. THOUGH A
LOW PROBABILITY SOLN AT THIS TIME... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
RESIDUAL SRN STREAM ENERGY TO GENERATE ANOTHER GULF OF MEXICO WAVE
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RAUSCH

[srainhoutx]

Goodness, virtually all the ensembles are chilly for the foreseeable future in our part of the world, lol...

[vbhoutex]

Goodness, virtually all the ensembles are chilly for the foreseeable future in our part of the world, lol...

For once the local OCMs are getting it at least partially right too. Ch 13 said we will have below normal temps for at least the next week. I haven't seen KHOU or KPRC yet today. Steppin' down??? Keep watching.
Steve, that fast drop happened well after FROPA didn't it? It did here. It seemed like there was a nice steady drop going on through the 50's and then all the sudden we were into the mid 40's.

[vbhoutex]

12Z GFS is forecasting low 20s with highs in the low 30s here Feb. 3rd. Of course, that's the very long range and subject to considerable error. I'm still looking for that first 80F (or first 70) in the long-range 2m temps...

Can we fast forward to that when you find it please?

[tireman4]

12Z GFS is forecasting low 20s with highs in the low 30s here Feb. 3rd. Of course, that's the very long range and subject to considerable error. I'm still looking for that first 80F (or first 70) in the long-range 2m temps...

Can we fast forward to that when you find it please?

NEVER!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Goodness, virtually all the ensembles are chilly for the foreseeable future in our part of the world, lol...

For once the local OCMs are getting it at least partially right too. Ch 13 said we will have below normal temps for at least the next week. I haven't seen KHOU or KPRC yet today. Steppin' down??? Keep watching.
Steve, that fast drop happened well after FROPA didn't it? It did here. It seemed like there was a nice steady drop going on through the 50's and then all the sudden we were into the mid 40's.

It did, David. Temp just hit 39.7 and still dropping at this hour. And those winds...at least some gusts in the mid 30 range...still!

[tireman4]

Holy Moly the temperature is still dropping.....Wind is howling and I am on the third floor

[Andrew]

This is just funny:



It is interesting to see the change of pace that the new year has brought in. The last part of last year was a very dull, rainless couple of months and like clockwork January hit and we get a blocking pattern with many lows tracking across the state. Latest model trends tend to indicate this will continue as the rest of the month and possibly into February.


Also you can see how fast temps have been dropping out there:

[srainhoutx]

We will have another Winter RECON mission in the Pacific. Hopefully we will see some improvement via the NCEP models in regards to our upstream activity in the days ahead. With the progressive pattern of storms and fronts every couple of days, guidance will need all the help it can get, IMO...

NOUS42 KNHC 201730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EST THU 20 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 10-050
FOR 21/1200Z WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
505 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-210600-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
505 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011

...A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...

A VERY COLD DRY AIRMASS BLASTED INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPERS TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY WITH 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROVIDE
PROTECTION FOR TENDER PLANTS...PIPES...AND OUTDOOR PETS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND MID MORNING
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

[srainhoutx]

College Station is reporting 35 at this hour. Huntsville is at 36. 38 in my backyard.

[Andrew]

As you can see from the chart below the cold air is still coming down.( Look at Contour lines)

[skidog38]

can we get some gulf effect precip. i think i remember something said about that.

[sleetstorm]

43ºF is the current temperature here in Baytown. It was 52ºF roughly two to three hours ago.

[wxman666]

38 currently in Cypress via TWC Max app....HGX says we'll see a low of 30 tonight.

[srainhoutx]

Man, it's cold with that wind...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
01Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
WINDS CONTINUE TO HOWL ALONG THE COAST. RUC AND NAM12 SHOW WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. FEEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 25 MPH FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MIN TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH A
FREEZE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. NEW ZONES OUT BY 830 PM.