Wxman said: Nothing too interesting. More cold rain Thursday. I see nothing to indicate otherwise.
Agreed. Just your typical nasty, cold, wet, dreary, can't do jack outside weather (typical January). I would love to eat crow and see the models trend towards a colder solution over the next day or two but mark my words...that will not happen.
I like the Edster's way of thinking. I"m ready for some strong return flow for a week followed by watching a potent MCS come dragging into Southeast, Texas with warnings going off on my NOAA radio.
Last edited by admin11 on Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason:To Remove Any Political Reference In The Weather Forum
BiggieSmalls wrote:How significant could this event be for Dallas?
Hard to say with any confidence this far out. I see this as a freezing rain/sleet threat, not snow. Could be a trace of freezing rain, could be 1/2". It all depends on the airmass that slips south ahead of the upper trof axis. Also note that if you are only looking at the deterministic model forecasts (Euro, Canadian, GFS), then not one of them actually shows the sub-freezing air in place prior to the precip event. We're still talking about a "possibility" that the sub-freezing dense Arctic air moves farther south than the models are forecasting by Wednesday night, setting eh stage for freezing rain/sleet to our north.
The Canadian (GEM) suggests a mighty close call with an Upper Air disturbance to our N and W along the trough and a surface low developing to our SW along the Lower TX Coast on Thursday morning...
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srainhoutx wrote:The Canadian (GEM) suggests a mighty close call with an Upper Air disturbance to our N and W along the trough and a surface low developing to our SW along the Lower TX Coast on Thursday morning...
I see a wave of low pressure in southern Texas, yet that is probably the very icy air enters this region of Texas.
The 12Z Euro suggests the Arctic front heading S on Thursday. That model also suggests an Upper Air disturbance a bit further W along the trough and lowering surface pressures in Deep S TX...
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srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Euro suggests the Arctic front heading S on Thursday. That model also suggests an Upper Air disturbance a bit further W along the trough and lowering surface pressures in Deep S TX...
what happens when the surface pressures in deep s tx are lowered ?
Mr. Weather wrote:
what happens when the surface pressures in deep s tx are lowered ?
That tends to throw/draw moisture from the Gulf over the shallow Arctic air mass creating what we call over running moisture.
Isn't that what happened when we had the Christmas Eve snow in 2004? If this over running happens with this Arctic air moving down here, does this mean we may have some sleet or freezing rain?
The 12Z Euro suggests the {sarcasm} boring weather pattern will continue {/sarcasm} into late next weekend/early the following week with yet another event across TX and beyond...
01172011 12Z Euro f168.gif
01172011 12Z Euro GFS Compare 500mb 6-10 Day test8.gif
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This event is still evolving. I see we have some bold statements about our area being made for Thursday and beyond. Several days away, guys, with the continual changing of the models. You heard me??? Lol
I say Tuesday would be a good day to begin forecasting. Even two days out have left us with unexpected results. I guess one has to start somewhere, but it should be within reason. I for one, am not dismissing the possibility of sleet here in our area with this event. Folks in north Texas may have some icing issues. Everyone in the State of Texas had better start paying attention come Tuesday.
Confucius say, egg on face makes one look out of place..
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A VERY THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE SURFACE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS AS
MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A BREEZY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND RESULT IN A
BRIEF WARM UP WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS. THEREFORE...WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MIX OF WINTER PRECIP AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND FORECASTED TEMPERATURE
PROFILES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.
All about timing, and which model you believe. All of which will flip flop before landing on the bullseye the day before the event. Dallas is simply following current model runs. Completely useless. The outcome they speak of could indeed be valid in the end, so folks should not get their hopes up for winter precip. The odds are always against us down here.
It just looked like some of those models were seeing something that a few were not. If the very cold air does arrive faster and colder than what is currently anticipated, southeast Texas could very well receive more than just chilly rain.
sleetstorm wrote:It just looked like some of those models were seeing something that a few were not. If the very cold air does arrive faster and colder than what is currently anticipated, southeast Texas could very well receive more than just chilly rain.
Odds are we'll receive cold rain.
Nothing exciting or memorable, just dreary, cold rain.
