January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman57]

How is the temperature going to warm up into the forties with cloud cover blocking all of the sunlight?

Two ways. First, the airmass overhead is gradually modifying as it is heated by the warmer ground. Second, and more important, the current cold air advection will switch to warm advection (lower-level winds off the Gulf) this afternoon. That should get our high above 40. May stay at 45 or less, but it should top 40.

[sleetstorm]

Okay, thank you, wxman57.

[wxman57]

I"m ready for that warm advection to start any second now...

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
952 AM CST THU JAN 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
S/W CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP
ON RADAR. PRECIP FALLING INTO A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND VAST
MAJORITY WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE EVER REACHING THE GROUND. WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED WITH A REPORT OR TWO OF A SLEET PELLET OR FLURRY, BUT
DO NOT FEEL CHANCES ARE EVEN WORTH MENTIONING. THE H5 TROF AXIS
SHOULD PUSH SE OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN BUT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
REMAIN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH. TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN
A TOUCH FOR TODAY...OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKING FINE.

[ronyan]

It got down to 35.2 F here this morning. It hasn't warmed up much though, right now I'm showing 37.6 F.

[TexasBreeze]

Terrible weather out today. It's not nice!

[wxman57]

Terrible weather out today. It's not nice!

I tried to tell you all that cold weather is bad. Wouldn't a nice, sunny 95 degree July day feel good just about now? Or maybe about 100 of them in a row...

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian (GEM) continues to suggest an interesting pattern as we head into the weekend and next week. The coming weekend is looking rather damp and a bit warmer and then attention turns to our N and W. That model suggests ridging in the Pacific as well as a S dropping Polar Vortex into the Canadian Prairies. The Canadian also depicts a storm heading S along the Northern Canadian Rockies suggesting much colder air into spilling into the Lower 48. Something to watch in the days ahead. Guidance is struggling with the wave lengths across the Pacific and caution is advised when looking at the Operational guidance, IMO.

01132011 12Z GEM 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

01132011 12zggem850mbTSLPNA144.gif

[ronyan]

Terrible weather out today. It's not nice!

I tried to tell you all that cold weather is bad. Wouldn't a nice, sunny 95 degree July day feel good just about now? Or maybe about 100 of them in a row...

Ugh, 95 is miserable. I'd prefer 0 to 95. Ideally I'd like the temperature to be between 50 and 75 all the time. I still do like the colder weather though.

[TexasMetBlake]

35 degrees heading into the noon hour. Now THIS is the weather I like!! You can take the heat...all of it and never show your face around here again.

[ticka1]

35 degrees heading into the noon hour. Now THIS is the weather I like!! You can take the heat...all of it and never show your face around here again.

Will it get to the 40's probably but I am loving this weather! We are in winter and have winter temps to enjoy. Just like the folks that like summer temps in the summer! Let us have our time! Stay warm folks!

[srainhoutx]

Oh my...

[randybpt]

Ok I can't make nothing out of all that srain .....please explain in detail

[srainhoutx]

Ok I can't make nothing out of all that srain .....please explain in detail

Cutoff low of to our W along the West Coast Pacific. The Arctic boundary is heading S prior to that feature moving onshore. While the Euro suggests the coldest air remains in Canada, there is enough coming S to create potential issues as wxman57 discussed earlier for areas further N. We shall see, but the models are still struggling with the mechanisms that could displace all that cold air building. Something to watch, IMO. Edit to add: Look at the Polar Vortex dropping S. That is one of the drivers as well as the Pacific pattern that will need to be watched closely as we head into the weekend. The Canadian is 'sniffing' that feature out as well.

[wxman57]

Ok I can't make nothing out of all that srain .....please explain in detail

Cutoff low of to our W along the West Coast Pacific. The Arctic boundary is heading S prior to that feature moving onshore. While the Euro suggests the coldest air remains in Canada, there is enough coming S to create potential issues as wxman57 discussed earlier for areas further N. We shall see, but the models are still struggling with the mechanisms that could displace all that cold air building. Something to watch, IMO. Edit to add: Look at the Polar Vortex dropping S. That is one of the drivers as well as the Pacific pattern that will need to be watched closely as we head into the weekend. The Canadian is 'sniffing' that feature out as well.

Surface map (top right) doesn't appear to match the upper-level flow and known Arctic air in NW Canada. That is, there could be a bigger chunk of cold air moving south with the disturbance moving overhead. This would be a shallow layer of sub-freezing air that could result in an ice storm across the Southern Plains (to our north).

[Paul]

the 12z GFS does not agree....not that I like the GFS much but just sayin. Zonal and normal temps....that is what I enjoy...

[Portastorm]

Both the 12z UKMET and Euro show strong ridging developing off the Pacific Coast at 144 hours. Could be that positive PNA showing its stuff and a prelude to more Arctic air into Texas?!

[srainhoutx]

Both the 12z UKMET and Euro show strong ridging developing off the Pacific Coast at 144 hours. Could be that positive PNA showing its stuff and a prelude to more Arctic air into Texas?!

You read my mind, Portastorm.

[skidog38]

precip on radar. can we get anything tonight?

[losmabies]

I have a family event in Brenham on Saturday and a husband who is travelling to Austin (driving) on Monday. Will there be weather issues to worry about?

I am by no means a weather expert, but it just seems with all this cold air and some moisture - our area could luck out once and get some winter precip.

Thanks for everyone's input on the weather!!