January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Mr. T]

...especially between IAH (heat island with planes) and well, anywhere else that has no urban heat island effect. There's usually a big difference between Conroe and IAH too.

Yeah. I've seen IAH about 10 degrees warmer than sites like Conroe and Hooks

It didn't use to be like that, but with the urban heat island gaining traction over the last decade, IAH has become a pretty crappy climate site

[TexasBreeze]

I agree. IMO I think climate sites should be away from airports and more rural or above grassy areas away from buildings. On the other hand concrete and buildings are expanding more and more as time goes on which makes it harder to get an uncontaminated reading.

[wxman666]

Hard Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

...HARD FREEZE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

..A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOSS HILL TO SPRING TO MONAVILLE TO
COLUMBUS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE
LOCATIONS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING.


TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-121500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HZ.W.0001.110112T0600Z-110112T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
338 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPECIFICALLY...
LOCATIONS NORTH OF LINE FROM TRINITY TO HUNTSVILLE TO CALDWELL
CAN EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES FOR ABOUT 8 HOURS. CENTRAL PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...DOWN TO A LINE FROM MOSS HILL TO SPRING TO
MONAVILLE TO COLUMBUS...CAN EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES FOR ABOUT 4
TO 6 HOURS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
25 DEGREES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. EXPOSED OR SUSCEPTIBLE WATER PIPES
WILL BE IN DANGER OF FREEZING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PROTECT PETS AND
PEOPLE.

&&

$$

[wxman666]

Interesting forecast for my area. Wind chill readings could be in the teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for me! I don't know what that even feels like!!!!!

[Mr. T]

Hard freeze warning for everyone along and north of ih-10 including Harris

[Mr. T]

Interesting forecast for my area. Wind chill readings could be in the teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for me! I don't know what that even feels like!!!!!

If you were here during Jan 2010, you might have felt that

[srainhoutx]

The front was a bit faster than I was thinking yesterday. That boundary is offshore and let the CCA begin. I noticed pressures are near or slightly above the 1060mb range in N TX. Temps across TX range from the lower single digits in the Panhandle to the mid 50's in deep S TX at this hour.

[wxman57]

It's pretty darn cold up there in north TX - 3 in Amarillo this morning. To get an idea of what that might mean for Houston, take the Amarillo morning low and add 20 degrees to account for dry adiabatic heating as the air moves downslope to Houston. That would give you 23, assuming no modification at all of the airmass up there.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

TXZ171-172-183>190-111500-
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
JUNCTION       CLEAR     24  18  77 N9        30.55R WCI  14
*LLANO         CLEAR     27  19  74 N12       30.62R WCI  16
BURNET         CLEAR     24  16  71 N16       30.58R WCI  11
*HORSESHOE BAY PTCLDY    27  19  74 NW13G21   30.57R WCI  16
*KERRVILLE     CLOUDY    29  19  68 N15G23    30.51R WCI  17
*FREDERICKSBRG CLOUDY    26  20  78 N12G21    30.54R WCI  15
*ROCKSPRINGS   CLOUDY    28  19  69 CALM      30.47R
*BOERNE STAGE  CLOUDY    30  23  74 N15G21    30.50R WCI  19
*CASTROVILLE   CLOUDY    37  28  70 N10G20    30.52R WCI  30
HONDO          CLOUDY    37  26  64 N14       30.53R WCI  28
*UVALDE        CLOUDY    38  30  71 NE6       30.52R WCI  34
DEL RIO        CLOUDY    37  24  59 N16       30.55R WCI  28
LAUGHLIN AFB   CLOUDY    37  28  71 N15       30.55R WCI  28
$$

TXZ173-191>194-202-209-217>225-228-111500-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
GEORGETOWN     CLEAR     27  16  63 N15G24    30.57R WCI  15
AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOCLDY    31  20  63 N22G30    30.56R WCI  18
AUSTIN/MABRY   CLEAR     29  21  72 N12G18    30.57R WCI  19
*AUSTIN/EXEC   CLEAR     28  23  80 N15G24    30.57R WCI  17
*LAGO VISTA    PTCLDY    28  23  80 NW9G18    30.54R WCI  20
SAN MARCOS     CLOUDY    34  18  51 N22       30.57R WCI  22
NEW BRAUNFELS  CLOUDY    34  25  69 N21G26    30.53R WCI  22
RANDOLPH AFB   CLOUDY    35  24  66 N16       30.53R WCI  24
SAN ANTONIO    CLOUDY    35  23  61 N16G24    30.52R WCI  25
STINSON FIELD  CLOUDY    38  26  62 N15G23    30.52R WCI  29
*PLEASANTON    CLOUDY    40  31  71 N9G17     30.53R WCI  33
*LA GRANGE     CLOUDY    35  28  74 N13G23    30.51R WCI  27
*GIDDINGS      PTCLDY    32  24  73 N15G25    30.56R WCI  22
$$

TXZ163>164-176>182-195>201-210>213-226-227-235-111500-
SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLLEGE STN    CLEAR     33  24  69 N18G26    30.55R WCI  22
*CALDWELL      PTCLDY    32  27  80 NW14G24   30.57R WCI  22
*CROCKETT      PTCLDY    32  27  80 NW13      30.56R WCI  22
*BRENHAM       PTCLDY    34  27  75 N16G23    30.52R WCI  23
HUNTSVILLE     PTCLDY    33  26  75 N7G17     30.52R WCI  27
CONROE         MOCLDY    35  28  75 N12       30.50R WCI  27
HOUSTON BUSH   CLOUDY    37  29  72 N13       30.49R WCI  29
HOUSTON HOBBY  CLOUDY    39  29  67 N15G26    30.49R WCI  31
*HOUSTON SW AP CLOUDY    37  31  79 N13       30.49R WCI  29
PEARLAND       CLOUDY    37  29  72 N13G24    30.51R WCI  29
HOUSTON HOOKS  CLOUDY    36  29  75 N12G18    30.49R WCI  28
ELLINGTON FLD  MOCLDY    37  30  75 N16       30.50R WCI  28
SUGAR LAND     CLOUDY    37  29  72 N16G23    30.49R WCI  28
*HOUSTON EXEC  CLOUDY    37  32  81 N18       30.50R WCI  27
*CLEVELAND MUN CLOUDY    37  31  78 N6G16     30.49R WCI  32
*WHARTON       CLOUDY    39  32  76 N13G21    30.51R WCI  31
$$

TXZ214>216-236>238-111500-
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
*ORANGE        CLOUDY    36  30  80 N16G25    30.48R WCI  26
PORT ARTHUR    CLOUDY    35  28  75 N16G26    30.47R WCI  25
GALVESTON      CLOUDY    37  31  78 N25G33    30.49R WCI  25
ANGLETON       CLOUDY    37  29  72 N16G22    30.49R WCI  28
*BAY CITY      CLOUDY    37  34  87 N14G21    30.50R WCI  29
PALACIOS       MOCLDY    38  31  76 N23G29    30.51R WCI  27
$$

[wxman666]

Interesting forecast for my area. Wind chill readings could be in the teens Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for me! I don't know what that even feels like!!!!!

If you were here during Jan 2010, you might have felt that

I was but I sure don't remembering it being that chilly! Must've pushed it out of my mind.

[hlewis]

I hate to butt in, but I'm a long-time member/lurker and just am out of the loop and don't feel like reading back through everything... please, can you tell me what to expect in Wharton County ...and...is there any chance for SNOW?

Thanks so much!

[srainhoutx]

I hate to butt in, but I'm a long-time member/lurker and just am out of the loop and don't feel like reading back through everything... please, can you tell me what to expect in Wharton County ...and...is there any chance for SNOW?

Thanks so much!

You folks look to be in the mid to upper 20's tonight and tomorrow night in Wharton County. Clouds will likely increase tomorrow as a short wave approaches from our W, but things appear too dry at the lower levels for any chance of wintry precip for Wednesday night/Thursday...for now... and don't be afraid to jump in anytime, hlewis.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff has just arrived...

Long advertised arctic cold front has pushed through the area overnight ushering in a very cold air mass.

Hard Freeze Warning has been issued for tonight along and N of I-10.

Arctic boundary has pushed deep into the Gulf of Mexico this morning with strong cold air advection in place across the region. Temperatures have fallen into the mid/upper 30’s at all sites with wind chill values in the low 30’s and upper 20’s. Real core of the arctic dome is just now reaching the TX panhandle where Pampa, TX is currently 1 and Lubbock, TX 9. Upstream temperatures over NC TX are in the mid 20’s to upper teens and this very dry and cold air mass will continue to advect southward today on strong NW winds. Low level stratus are starting to erode over NC TX from the NW as very dry low level air mass moves southward with dewpoints into the 1’s. Should see a slow but gradual clearing of the skies from NW to SE today with clear skies over all areas by late afternoon. Highs will struggle to reach to low to mid 40’s today.

Clear skies will allow for a very cold night tonight even with winds staying in the 5-10mph range. Temperatures will fall below freezing quickly this evening with lows at or below 25 degrees N of I-10 Wednesday morning. A Hard Freeze Warning is in effect for these areas for 8-12 hours of temperatures at or below freezing. Along and north of US 59 lows will range from 25-28 with temperatures below freezing for 5-9 hours. South of US 59 temperatures will range from 28-31 with temperatures below freezing for 4-6 hours.

Short wave aloft will move toward TX Wednesday with a mid level cloud deck along the Rio Grande plains tonight rapidly advecting NE early Wednesday. Skies will gradually become cloudy from the SW during the day limiting heating and keeping highs in the 40’s. Cloud deck in place Wednesday night should keep temperatures 2-4 degrees warmer than tonight…still a freeze for many locations. Very dry sub cloud layer should prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground.

Friday-Weekend:

Coastal trough develops along the middle TX coast locking in NE flow with SW flow overrunning the shallow cold dome. Cold dome will be slow to erode with NE winds keeping the cold air entrenched and clouds/light rain helping to prevent modification. Will likely see more clouds/drizzle than rain during this period until late Saturday/Sunday when the trough becomes a warm front and begins to lift northward finally eroding the cold dome and allowing highs back into the 60’s by Sunday and Monday. Next front is due in Monday of next week.

Forecast Lows for Wednesday Morning:

Houston, Madison, Trinity, Brazos, Grimes, Walker, Polk Counties: 20-23

Washington, Waller, Montgomery, Austin, Colorado, San Jacinto, Liberty: 22-25

Harris outside the Beltway: 24-26

Harris inside the Beltway: 26-29

Harris inside 610 Loop: 28-32

Fort Bend, Wharton, Victoria, N Jackson: 24-27

Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun: 28-32

Freeze Precautions:

Forecasted temperatures tonight along with the duration below freezing will impact sensitive tropical vegetation and exposed outside pipes. Plants and pipes should be covered to protect against the cold. Last January the majority of the issues with pipes were on the back flow preventer for yard sprinkler systems and these should be covered and protected tonight. Winds will remain in the 5-10mph range overnight so coverings should be tightly secured. With winds staying up (advective freeze), the covering of plants to produce the “greenhouse effect” will only be marginally effective when compared to a calm night (radiative freeze) where the warmth from the ground becomes trapped under the covering.

[Portastorm]

Currently 29 degrees with a north wind of 15 and a wind chill of 19! Bbbrrrrr...probably appropriate weather for the first day of the legislative session here in Austin.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see all the cold building across Canada via the Euro at day 10. The $64,000 question is will that air mass translate S?

01112011 00Z Euro 00zeuro500mbHGHTNH240.gif

01112011 00Z Euro GFS 500mb test8.gif

[hlewis]

I hate to butt in, but I'm a long-time member/lurker and just am out of the loop and don't feel like reading back through everything... please, can you tell me what to expect in Wharton County ...and...is there any chance for SNOW?

Thanks so much!

You folks look to be in the mid to upper 20's tonight and tomorrow night in Wharton County. Clouds will likely increase tomorrow as a short wave approaches from our W, but things appear too dry at the lower levels for any chance of wintry precip for Wednesday night/Thursday...for now... and don't be afraid to jump in anytime, hlewis.

Thank you, srain!! That sounds like chili weather to me have a great day board!

[srainhoutx]

It is certainly chili weather. I'll be making a batch today!

[seanatsk]

I noticed the cold air building in Canada this morning. Seems that the NW Territories are getting some mighty frigid air finally. Also appears that there might be some cross polar flow ocurring from temps in the North Central - North Eastern parts of Siberia. You're right the real question is if it will head south and when. I'm throwing the model guidance out now because they don't appear to be handling the air masses very well. I'm just looking at the building temps from what is generally our source regions.

[redneckweather]

So this is the much anticipated arctic front that we were going nuts over last week? Low's are forecasted to be in the 22 to 25 range in my area tonight. I've already seen that twice this fall/winter season. I hit 22 degrees over Thanksgiving weekend (Saturday morning in a deer stand, froze my butt off!!) and 24/25 a couple weeks after that? Sure this is a bit chilly but nothing we don't see usually once or twice every fall/winter season. The models strung us out pretty good on this one didn't they?

I'm sure this will be our coldest stretch and then maybe a light freeze a night or two next week then that should be it. Come on Spring time! I'm ready to get my garden in the ground.

[wxman57]

So this is the much anticipated arctic front that we were going nuts over last week? Low's are forecasted to be in the 22 to 25 range in my area tonight. I've already seen that twice this fall/winter season. I hit 22 degrees over Thanksgiving weekend (Saturday morning in a deer stand, froze my butt off!!) and 24/25 a couple weeks after that? Sure this is a bit chilly but nothing we don't see usually once or twice every fall/winter season. The models strung us out pretty good on this one didn't they?

I'm sure this will be our coldest stretch and then maybe a light freeze a night or two next week then that should be it. Come on Spring time! I'm ready to get my garden in the ground.

Yes, this is it. Fortunately, we are only getting a tiny piece of Arctic air with this front. The concern a week ago was that a larger chunk of cold air might move south, resulting in temps down to the mid teens here and highs not much above freezing if at all. That extreme cold was a possibility, but it was never the forecast (most likely to happen).

Sometimes it is hard to explain the difference between talking about something that is possible vs. the forecast of what's more likely to happen. To use a hurricane example, we might identify a major hurricane entering the Gulf in about a week, mentioning that it's possible that it could hit our area. However, the forecast is for it to hit the mid Gulf Coast at present. When the hurricane hits the mid Gulf Coast, some might say "this is the major hurricane that was supposed to hit Houston?" As meteorologists, we would then explain that the hurricane was never FORECAST to hit us, it was just a possibility that it could hit us.

Same thing with the Arctic air. We never FORECAST teens here, we forecast mid to upper 20s. But teens were a possibility in the long range forecast.