February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[Kludge]

WSW for HGX CWA?


Maybe the counties up around Madisonville and CLL that border NWS FWD, IMHO. Maybe one more row of counies South of existing FWD counties.

More likely a WWA.


Light snow in the air with mid 30s temps and making grass and streets wet probably doesn't trigger much.

Maybe as close as Huntsville area (Walker and Madison). IMHO.

I'm your Huckleberry. Bring it on.

[Mr. T]

Ig GFS 2 meter temps are right, while precip is falling and 850 mb temps are cold enough, 0.10 inches falls between 3.7 and 1.6ºC, so maybe, maybe not, flakes in the air, but accumulation not at all, if GFS is correct.

If GFS is right, best is some melting flakes at the end.

No joy locally for those of us spoiled by the December 5th snow miracle.

I have no idea what the hell you are talking about. The GFS literally shows the possibility of accumulating snow to the coast, and surface temperatures do not have to be at freezing for this to occur.

Light snow doesn't accumlate between 35ºF and 39ºF. It may be in the air, but light snow doesn't accumulate. I have lived in New York, and heavy snow can accumulate at 35ºF, but snow in the air doesn't mean snow on the ground above freezing, with 6 hour liquid equivalents less than 2 tenths when temps hit 39ºF and 0.10 liquid equivalent at 35ºF.


Sorry to bust the bubble,

Maybe the GFS is a degree Celcius too warm, or the precip is heavier than the model shows, but no snow for you, especially at the coast, if the 0Z GFS verifies.

With banding features setting up, the snow will be anything but "light"

The GFS shows snow to the coast. Again, what the hell are you talking about? Seriously, you are making me laugh out loud here

[TexasMetBlake]

WSW for HGX CWA?


Maybe the counties up around Madisonville and CLL that border NWS FWD, IMHO. Maybe one more row of counies South of existing FWD counties.

More likely a WWA.


Light snow in the air with mid 30s temps and making grass and streets wet probably doesn't trigger much.

Maybe as close as Huntsville area (Walker and Madison). IMHO.

Huh? Did you read the afternoon AFD?

Yeah, and between the light precip and temps above freezing at the surface for pretty much all of the CWA, based on recent models, a WWA for Brazos/Washington/Houston/Madison/Walker would be erring on the side of least regret, but probably wouldn't verify as far as travel issues.

You really should be blocked from posting...you speak rubbish.

[txsnowmaker]

From FWD:

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE/LL HOLD THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTACT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 2-4 INCHES FALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN METROPLEX WITH ISOLATED SWATCHES OF 5-8 INCHES FOR
BANDED SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 WHERE THE NAM SHOWS THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. ACTIVE WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST.

EL NINO WINTERS...YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.


And, that will be the fly in the ointment

I agree. All it takes is a heavy band or two and we could really be in business.

[Mr. T]

Yeah, and between the light precip and temps above freezing at the surface for pretty much all of the CWA, based on recent models, a WWA for Brazos/Washington/Houston/Madison/Walker would be erring on the side of least regret, but probably wouldn't verify as far as travel issues.

You really should be blocked from posting...you speak rubbish.

I'm about to put him on ignore. He's just a tool. Ignore him.

CLL could recieve up to a half of foot of snow from this if a band sets up overhead...

[don]

Yeah, and between the light precip and temps above freezing at the surface for pretty much all of the CWA, based on recent models, a WWA for Brazos/Washington/Houston/Madison/Walker would be erring on the side of least regret, but probably wouldn't verify as far as travel issues.

Um models have been showing up too 3 inches of snow for those counties for a while now...that's definitely WWA if not WSW criteria...

[Mr. T]

Don't believe the amateur, flip back and look at pro-met Wxman57s posts and home made meteograms showing warm surface temps and not particularly dry dewpoints from previous model runs.

Who the hell are you? I'm talking about the CLL area, where you just laughingly stated that a WWA might not even verify. FWD has the county just north of Brazos possibly recieving anywhere from 5"-8" of snow. This threat continues into the CLL area and points eastward. The NAM is most eye popping.

I'm not saying we're going to see several inches, but a dusting of snow or even up to an inch is certainly possible.

[Rich]

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Ig GFS 2 meter temps are right, while precip is falling and 850 mb temps are cold enough, 0.10 inches falls between 3.7 and 1.6ºC, so maybe, maybe not, flakes in the air, but accumulation not at all, if GFS is correct.

If GFS is right, best is some melting flakes at the end.

No joy locally for those of us spoiled by the December 5th snow miracle.
I have no idea what the hell you are talking about. The GFS literally shows the possibility of accumulating snow to the coast, and surface temperatures do not have to be at freezing for this to occur.


Light snow doesn't accumlate between 35ºF and 39ºF. It may be in the air, but light snow doesn't accumulate. I have lived in New York, and heavy snow can accumulate at 35ºF, but snow in the air doesn't mean snow on the ground above freezing, with 6 hour liquid equivalents less than 2 tenths when temps hit 39ºF and 0.10 liquid equivalent at 35ºF.

I was driving in Pearland during the December 4th event with temps near 35 degrees and their was snow accumulating on the roadways and several inches accumulating on grassy surfaces with temps above freezing. So it is possible!

[Mr. T]

I was driving in Pearland during the December 4th event with temps near 35 degrees and their was snow accumulating on the roadways and several inches accumulating on grassy surfaces with temps above freezing. So it is possible!

Thank you!

I've said this about 20 times now, but for some reason, people still believe that it has to be right at freezing for accumulation. If it is heavy enough, it will accumulate. I wouldn't be suprised if CLL never reaches freezing and they see several inches of snow.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, and between the light precip and temps above freezing at the surface for pretty much all of the CWA, based on recent models, a WWA for Brazos/Washington/Houston/Madison/Walker would be erring on the side of least regret, but probably wouldn't verify as far as travel issues.

Um models have been showing up too 3 inches of snow for those counties for a while now...that's definitely WWA if not WSW criteria...

Yeah, I'm not going to argue about Ed's contention that it doesn't snow along the coast ... but the comment about WWA if not WSW conditions not verifying up in the Bryan/College Station area -- based on current guidance -- is baffling. Ed, the 0z NAM is showing 3-4 inches of snow for the area and the 0z GFS 2-3 inches. That's easily WWA conditions.

You're a smart guy, you know this. C'mon man!

[Kludge]

When the 'bullseye' is almost on top of your house... life is good.

[srainhoutx]

The prudent thing to do is wait until all the guidance come in. HGX will likely make a call with the early morning AFD.

[Andrew]

[rnmm]

Thank you to all who have responded to my request about our snow chances for my kiddos. We will wait and see and I know that is all we can do! You all have a great night!!

[TexasMetBlake]

You know back in college, my best friend Robin spelt the word ridiculous with an "e" (rediculous). I made the point that "rediculous" was spelt with an I. We had a good laugh. After a hardy chuckle, we now claim that when one of us is being "extra" ridiculous, we say "your being ridiculous with an E for extra."

Ed, your E stands about as big as a highrise and stands for many more things than Extra. Enormously, Erroneous, Extra, and several other words come to mind.

I'm not a moderator, but if your going to make claims, PROVIDE EVIDENCE AND LINKS TO YOUR STATEMENTS!

[Mr. T]

Banned or ignore for saying the GFS shows snow in the air but not sticking between 39ºF and 35ºF?
I have a BS in Petroleum Engineering. Nope, never made a cent on the weather. Do you have a Bachelor of Science in anything? BA in communication from East idaho U?

And this gives you an advantage over forecasting and model analysis, how? I don't care how many pieces of paper you have, this has nothing to do with the weather and what we're dealing with tonight.

Maybe the model is too warm, or precip is heavier, CLL is a close call based on the GFS and may get snow accumulations on snow and grassy surfaces, Waco and Corsicana look quite good. Maybe snow will stick, we'll all be happy.

Snow can stick with surface temperatures in the mid 30s if the precipiation is heavy enough, as it occured on Dec 4th. Even if CLL never reached freezing (certainly possible), several inches of snow is still possible. And, it'll be the sweet spot if a snow band sets up over that area.

[swmmom]

Can't we just all get along and be nice to each other? I know nothing of reading the maps or trends but find weather fascinating, especially types of weather I do not normally get to see. And there is just something about snow that makes most people smile and especially children and especially those of which have never seen it before or gotten to play in it.

Being from Bryan I hope I get a foot of it Tuesday but I also know that when wishing for snow in south central Texas you pretty much believe it is snowing when you see it on the ground.

I appreciate all the people who come on this board and talk about what they are seeing and why and I think it gives me more knowledge. But I really hate to come on here and read what takes up a page of hurtful writing.

I hope everyone lets at least something white on the ground by Wednesday morning!!!!

Swimmom to future Olympian

[txsnowmaker]

Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.

[don]

I know were dealing with the possible Tuesday event right now but the GFS looks interesting early next week also FWIW

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180m.gif

[Ptarmigan]

I notice when it is about to snow, it warms up. The most optimal temperature for snow is between 30 to 35 degrees. We do not need freezing temps to have snow in Houston. The probability of seeing +0.01 or more than a trace of snow is every 5 years on average. So seeing two +0.01" snowfall happens every 25 years.

Above Trace Snowfall
1 Snowfall=Every 5 years
2 Snowfall=Every 25 years
3 Snowfall=Every 125 years
4 Snowfall=Every 625 years