January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Andrew]

The tornado warning has been allowed to expire but radar still shows many Tornadic Vortex Signatures and rotation. A messy messy situation. Also straight line winds are a given with this line.

[wxman666]

from looking at that graphic id advise peolpe in metro houston to keep a eye to the sw as the front and low approach you might catch the northern end of a squall line containing very high winds just ahead of the cold front

That's what I was wondering about. We'll need to see how that surface low comes into play. Waiting on the HGX AFD update and some sort of update from SPC so I can see what their current mindset is. I see D/FW has yet to upgrade to Winter Storm Warning/Advisory.

[Andrew]

Check out the difference in temperatures. Upper 60's in Corpus Christi CWA, upper 40's/low 50's Houston CWA.

Yea I am trying to track the wind direction but at this point that has become impossible....

[Andrew]

from looking at that graphic id advise peolpe in metro houston to keep a eye to the sw as the front and low approach you might catch the northern end of a squall line containing very high winds just ahead of the cold front

That's what I was wondering about. We'll need to see how that surface low comes into play. Waiting on the HGX AFD update and some sort of update from SPC so I can see what their current mindset is. I see D/FW has yet to upgrade to Winter Storm Warning/Advisory.

Well for Dallas things haven't been "cooling" off as fast so it will really be a tough decision for them on what they are going to do.

[wxman666]

TORNADO WARNING for Corpus Christi metro area. Airport in the direct path.


Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
TXC355-409-091015-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0002.110109T0942Z-110109T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
342 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
WESTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CST

* AT 339 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BANQUETE...
OR 7 MILES NORTH OF DRISCOLL...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROBSTOWN...
ANNAVILLE...
CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2766 9779 2782 9789 2808 9742 2784 9734
2784 9736 2786 9737 2786 9742 2784 9749
2783 9742 2784 9739 2783 9737 2777 9739
2772 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0942Z 249DEG 48KT 2778 9774

$$

JR

[wxman666]

Interesting. It's moving ENE. Let's see if our other storms will/are too.

[Andrew]

WOW! (too close to radar site for Base Velocity)

[wxman666]

It's definitely bowing but I can't spot the hook echo.

[Andrew]

Also GFS confirms no winter fun for areas up north:

[wxman666]

Somewhat of a significant forecast update from HGX. Freezing drizzle/wintry mix now forecast as far south as Walker, Grimes and Montgomery counties Sunday night through Monday. It should also be noted that temperatures (minimums) have been dropped to right around freezing sunday night...with lingering moisture in the area. Should be quite an interesting discussion coming from HGX fairly soon. Betting Winter Wx Alerts will be issued for at least Polk, Trinity, Madison and Houston counties. Could be a bit of an icy mess.

[mwbwhorton]

on another forum winds are 85 inbound 70 outbound with a nice hook near the airport in wind mode poster said

[wxman666]

Oh yeah, they've dropped temps down quite a bit. And any sunday night precip will occur AFTER midnight, as aoa freezing temps take over. Take a look....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx

[wxman666]

Also...Winter Storm Watch upgraded to a Winter Wx Advisory for the majority of North TX. Will post that now.

[Andrew]

Oh yeah, they've dropped temps down quite a bit. And any sunday night precip will occur AFTER midnight, as aoa freezing temps take over. Take a look....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx

I mean temps have already busted for me. I have a temp of 50 at my house where the low should of been 52. Dew-points aren't too supportive though (as of now)

[wxman666]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

TXZ093>095-102>107-117>123-131>134-091800-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110110T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.110109T1600Z-110110T1500Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PARKER-
TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS
358 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 AM CST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW TODAY AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
A DECATUR TO GRANBURY TO PALESTINE LINE TODAY. THIS TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS EARLY AS 10 AM CST NEAR THE
PARIS AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE METROPLEX AFTER NOON TODAY. THE TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
ADVISORY BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AREAS NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF GREENVILLE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ANYWHERE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WITHIN THE
METROPLEX...AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST MAY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY VARY SUBSTANTIALLY
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS.

SNOWFALL WILL END ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
START TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE HEAVIEST AROUND SUNRISE WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY
MORNING. MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEFORE HEADING OUT TO WORK ON MONDAY. PLAN TO TAKE
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELING MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

$$

[wxman666]

Oh yeah, they've dropped temps down quite a bit. And any sunday night precip will occur AFTER midnight, as aoa freezing temps take over. Take a look....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx

I mean temps have already busted for me. I have a temp of 50 at my house where the low should of been 52. Dew-points aren't too supportive though (as of now)

We have certainly seen how quickly things have changed in a matter of hours. At this point, I am not as inclined to say it's unlikely as I was earlier yesterday evening, based on latest forecasts/trends and quick changes.

[Andrew]

WFUS54 KCRP 091006
TORCRP
TXC007-391-409-091030-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0003.110109T1006Z-110109T1030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
406 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...
EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 AM CST

* AT 404 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TAFT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAFT...
BAYSIDE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2802 9702 2786 9741 2786 9745 2797 9752
2825 9719 2816 9708 2813 9712 2813 9714
2807 9720 2805 9713 2809 9707 2811 9705
2809 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1006Z 246DEG 47KT 2792 9741

$$

[mwbwhorton]

still very nice rotation in tornado warned area be on the lookout if you live there.....tornado has been reported.....

[wxman666]

still very nice rotation in tornado warned area be on the lookout if you live there.....tornado has been reported.....

Watching that squall line closely. Looks like there will be several major updates coming out within the next hour or so regarding severe weather, heavy rain and now, winter wx. Jeez, this will be a mess, haha. Wind damage reported in Alice, TX btw.

[Andrew]

6z GFS coming in colder