January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

Concerning the 12z. If I'm looking at things right, cold air should already be building into northwestern Canada right now which isn't happening.


Whereabouts in NE TX srain?

GFS:

[redneckweather]

Hmmmm, 6 to 7 inches possible in the Texarkana area huh? This looks to be evening time, correct? If so, I won't be able to take off darn it.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, don't get too hung up on the Operation models. The ensembles are significantly colder (not 'Historic'). Did we see a pattern change starting around Christmas? Have we been discussing at length some potential for interesting weather that we had not seen in many months? There are so many variables at play in this pattern that we still need to see unfold. While some may think I over exaggerate to promote board activity that could not be any further from the truth. This is a weather forum to discuss weather. I suspect we will have a lot to discuss in the days ahead, for what that is worth.

[Cuda17]

Folks, don't get too hung up on the Operation models. The ensembles are significantly colder (not 'Historic'). Did we see a pattern change starting around Christmas? Have we been discussing at length some potential for interesting weather that we had not seen in many months? There are so many variables at play in this pattern that we still need to see unfold. While some may think I over exaggerate to promote board activity that could not be any further from the truth. This is a weather forum to discuss weather. I suspect we will have a lot to discuss in the days ahead, for what that is worth.

Well said srain!

[tireman4]

Folks, don't get too hung up on the Operation models. The ensembles are significantly colder (not 'Historic'). Did we see a pattern change starting around Christmas? Have we been discussing at length some potential for interesting weather that we had not seen in many months? There are so many variables at play in this pattern that we still need to see unfold. While some may think I over exaggerate to promote board activity that could not be any further from the truth. This is a weather forum to discuss weather. I suspect we will have a lot to discuss in the days ahead, for what that is worth.

As someone who has been on these boards for almost 5 years, Srain is totally correct. He gives the information. You ( as the discriminating public) use what you want out of it. Thanks also to Wxman57, Candy Cane, Txagwxman and others I have forgotten for giving the pro-met side to it.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) continues to advertise a convective bomb across Central/SE TX on Sunday. That model also suggests wintry weather in N and NE TX and points E. Also a 1068mb high in Western Canada ridging S into the Southern Plains with a 1058mb high near WY/CO at hour 120.

[ticka1]

Srainhoutx gives us great information! Love the discussions - especially this week and all the posting on here. This board was slow for so long...at least now we have a pattern change to discuss......remember we are in Texas - wait 5 mins and the weather will change!

[wxman57]

Just looking at the 12Z GFS 2m temps - no freeze here for the next 2 weeks. I don't know about that, but I don't see a major freeze event here next week and quite likely the week after as well. Biggest threat will be the heavy rain event Saturday night/Sunday morning.

[redneckweather]

No freeze or not (which it will in my parts I'm sure) it's gonna feel like winter next week with cloud cover and strong CAA making it very raw during the daytime.

[djmike]

Just recieved an email advisory from NWS for SETX/WLA! Interesting!

ORANGE, TX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011 ..WINTER IS ABOUT TO MAKE A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS WEEKEND... CURRENTLY UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT THIS IS THE LAST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES THIS WARM FOR OVER A WEEK. THE REASON IS A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT IS SLIPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND NOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS TOMORROW AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF COLD RAIN AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A COLD RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH THE THREAT OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIXING IN SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE GULF WILL KICK THIS EVENT BACK INTO A COLD RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY. NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ONE POINT IS THIS LATEST EVENT WILL NOT DRIVE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S...AND THEREFORE NOT REALLY LOOKING AT A HARD FREEZE WITH THIS LATEST COLD OUTBREAK. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH. FOR MARINE INTEREST... OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WATER OUT OF THE BAYS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE LAKES AND BAYS SUNDAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT STRONG CURRENTS DURING THIS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE SHIPPING CHANNELS AND BAYOUS...THAT ALONG WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND A GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE. FINALLY SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGH AND CONFUSED WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.

[snowman65]

Notice how the posts and people browsing the forum is slowly starting to fizzle along with their dreams of really cold temps?. Winter is not over, don't give up hope, people!!

[Portastorm]

I'm not giving up hope ... 12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

[losmabies]

I can't give up hope either as my kids say it can't be officially Christmas until it snows.

I would love to see some winter weather here, but I also know it might be a long shot at this point. But afterall, tomorrow is another day...

Thanks for all the information on these boards, I have learned a lot!

[srainhoutx]

I'm not giving up hope ... 12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

As did the Canadian.

HPC says no change, for now...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 PM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 14 2011

BLOCKY NOAM PATTERN TO CONTINUE BUT ANOMALY HEIGHT REARRANGEMENT
OCCURRING AS THE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY OVER NRN CENTRAL
CANADA WEAKENS THIS PERIOD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THRU THE BERING SEA RESULTING IN A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
HIGH. HEIGHTS BUILD ENOUGH HERE TO ALLOW UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC
ZONAL FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEST AND
PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE MILDER CONDITIONS LOOK SHORT LIVED
AS THE CURRENT AND PERSISTENT NEGATIVE AO LOOKS TO TANK TO VALUES
SEEN IN MID DEC IN THE 10-14 DAY PERIOD. SEE CPC DISCUSSIONS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACTROSS TX SUN WILL INDUCE WRN
GLFMEX CYCLOGENESIS WITH A REFORMING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENG COAST AND
SEAWARD MID TO LATE PERIOD. NEXT BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER B.C. WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD AND ROTATE THRU THE PLAINS KEEPING WESTERLIES
SUPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH THIS DIFFUSE MID
LEVEL LOW BETTER ORGANIZED BY CMC AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
EXITING OVER NEW ENG WATERS LATE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE SETTLED DOWN CONSIDERABLY HANDLING THE GLFMEX EAST
COAST LOW AND CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATION OF THE
ENTIRE NATION EARLY PERIOD THEN A STRONG THERMAL CLASH ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND EAST MID TO LATE WEEK.

WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
REFORMING FROM THE NORTHEAST GLFMEX TO THE GA/SC COAST MDT TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA AND MUCH SC THERE IS
A VERY POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT MAINLY ICING
MONDAY WITH THIS SPREADING INTO NC MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW MORE LIKELY
NWD THRU THE SRN AND CENTRAL APPLCHNS AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA. DETAILS
TO BE SOLVED IN THE SHORT RANGE. SEE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE
OUTLOOKS AND FUTURE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.

PCPN SPREADING INTO THE WEST COAST AS THE PACIFIC WESTERLIES
RETURN MID WEEK WITH MDT TO HVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA AND INLAND TO THE SIERRA. SIGNIFICANT
HIGHER ELEV SNOWS AGAIN IN THE ID/WY/UT ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. MID AND
LOW LEVEL TEMP VALUES ARE ALSO IN THE RANGE FOR SNOW THREAT AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF COASTAL WA.

NEXT ARCTIC SURGE MAY BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MT/DAKOTAS/NB AND CO PLAINS FRI AND SAT.
ROSENSTEIN

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1158 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-072000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1158 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER IS ABOUT TO MAKE A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS WEEKEND...


CURRENTLY UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT THIS IS THE LAST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TEMPERATURES THIS WARM FOR OVER A WEEK. THE REASON IS A STRONG
CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT IS SLIPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE ROCKIES AND NOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER
WEST TEXAS TOMORROW AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND OFF THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF COLD RAIN
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A COLD RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH THE
THREAT OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIXING IN SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE GULF WILL KICK THIS
EVENT BACK INTO A COLD RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY.
NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ONE POINT IS THIS LATEST EVENT WILL NOT DRIVE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S...AND THEREFORE NOT REALLY LOOKING
AT A HARD FREEZE WITH THIS LATEST COLD OUTBREAK. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING TOWARDS
THE COAST AND THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH.

FOR MARINE INTEREST... OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WATER
OUT OF THE BAYS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE
LAKES AND BAYS SUNDAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT STRONG CURRENTS DURING
THIS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE SHIPPING CHANNELS AND BAYOUS...THAT
ALONG WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME AND A GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE. FINALLY
SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGH AND CONFUSED WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTIONS.

[srainhoutx]

1-2 Day QPF Update from HPC..

[wxman57]

Looking at the Euro sounding for Wed-Fri, I see very little moisture aloft. In addition, fairly strong warm advection aloft by Thursday. I wouldn't count on much more than some clouds and a few light sprinkles of cold rain here.

[losmabies]

Being a newbie, can you please explain that latest map srain?

[Badfish]

Wxman, are we EVER going to go La Nina here (analog wx)? Or will we just stay anomolous?? This is nuts.

[srainhoutx]

Being a newbie, can you please explain that latest map srain?

Here is a good explanation...

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (abbreviated QPF) is the expected amount of melted precipitation accumulated over a specified time period over a specified area.[1] A QPF will be created when precipitation amounts reaching a minimum threshold are expected during the forecast's valid period. Valid periods of precipitation forecasts are normally synoptic hours such as 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 GMT. Terrain is considered in QPFs by use of topography or based upon climatological precipitation patterns from observations with fine detail. Starting in the mid-to-late 1990s, QPFs were used within hydrologic forecast models to simulate impact to rivers throughout the United States. Forecast models show significant sensitivity to humidity levels within the planetary boundary layer, or in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, which decreases with height.[2] QPF can be generated on a quantitative, forecasting amounts, or a qualitative, forecasting the probability of a specific amount, basis.[3] Radar imagery forecasting techniques show higher skill than model forecasts within 6 to 7 hours of the time of the radar image. The forecasts can be verified through use of rain gauge measurements, weather radar estimates, or a combination of both. Various skill scores can be determined to measure the value of the rainfall forecast.