January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[TexasBreeze]

The upcoming cold pattern will be just dreary with most likely clouds around and too cold of temps to even stand doing anything outside too long. It has lost it's luster with no extremes/ winter precip. I will be ready for spring to begin!

[wxman666]

Sorry y'all...couldn't post the image in there for some reason.

[Andrew]

I see we spammed our way to 100

Want to hear something funny? Canadian came in Stronger 1073! MIND BLOWING!

Here is a loop that is finishing up

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

The Canadian has gotten a lot of crap but you have to take some notice in this especially since I believe the heights aren't adding up on the GFS. Wouldn't it be something if the Canadian was right.

[Andrew]

Euro not much change. It actually looks a little weaker compared to the 12z.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Yea EURO doesn't even show a freeze..

[randybpt]

Source region still not cold. Im throwing in the towel for next week. It doesn't matter how strong that high is there just is not any cold air.

[wxman57]

It doesn't appear as though any severe cold will pan out here next week. There just isn't any cold air to come down right now. Maybe upper 20s to 30 for a low and highs close to 40 on a day or two. This weekend's storms and the band of heavy snow from northern LA to SC will be a bigger event.

[snowman65]

I see we spammed our way to 100

The Canadian has gotten a lot of crap but you have to take some notice in this especially since I believe the heights aren't adding up on the GFS. Wouldn't it be something if the Canadian was right.

I think it would be something if ANY of them were right!!!.....hehehe....Gotta love SE Tx.......

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. HGX Forecaster 35 has an interesting discussion this morning full of all sorts of potential from severe to wintry to cold...

FXUS64 KHGX 071147 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
FORMED OVER THE FAR SW ZONES WHICH WILL BURN OFF MID MORNING.
GREAT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...DEFINITELY THE BEST DAY OF THE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SW ZONES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING. TEMPS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING
AND THICKENING IN THE AFTN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND STRENGTHEN
TO 50 KTS RESULTING IN A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA BY
12Z SUNDAY. FLOW AT 300 MB BECOMES STRONGLY DIFFLUENT. A SFC LOW
IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER DEEP SOUTH TX SATURDAY EVENING AND TRACK
ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST (HELICITIES > 600
M2/S2) BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. IF THE WARM SECTOR
(60+ SFC DEWPOINTS) BRIEFLY MOVES ONSHORE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS INDICATED IN THE MODELS...THEN ONE OR TWO
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10 AS REFLECTED IN SPC`S DAY
2 OUTLOOK. SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST OVER SRN ZONES NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY...WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB OVER THE NRN PART OF THE
AREA. GIVEN HIGH PWS AND STRONG LIFT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE 09-18Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER AS WELL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BUT WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST. TEMPS SUNDAY IN MANY AREAS WILL PEAK BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RISE DURING THE DAY.

GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT BOTH LUFKIN AND PALESTINE GET VERY CLOSE TO
SUPPORTING SNOW AT THE BACK END OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SHIELD 15-18Z
SUNDAY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
FROZEN PRECIP OUT OF OUR NE ZONES SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 925 MB LAYER
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NE ZONES. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER BELOW 2500 FT TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SOME WRAP AROUND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER OUR NE ZONES. FOR
NOW HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY.

LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH SE TX IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER SRN/WRN ZONES TO ALLOW
SOME CLEARING IN THESE AREAS AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 50S.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...
NOW BRINGING IT THROUGH SE TX 12-18Z TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY OVER THE SE HALF GIVEN THE DELAYED FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER SE TX
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING MANY AREAS TUE
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO TRULY CRATER
WITH THIS EVENT AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS WELL NORTH OF SE TX WHICH
WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED. REGARDLESS...THE NRN ZONES COULD SEE A
BORDERLINE HARD FREEZE BOTH NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT 40. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. THE LATEST GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD...WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/SNOW WITH ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS.
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ON THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. COLD AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE
THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

35

[srainhoutx]

Also the HPC says don't get too comfortable with that warmup depicted late next week as it will likely be short lived...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
740 AM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 11 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 14 2011

BLOCKY NOAM PATTERN TO CONTINUE BUT ANOMALY HEIGHT REARRANGEMENT
OCCURRING AS THE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY OVER NRN CENTRAL
CANADA WEAKENS THIS PERIOD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THRU THE BERING SEA RESULTING IN A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
HIGH. HEIGHTS BUILD ENOUGH HERE TO ALLOW UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC
ZONAL FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEST AND
PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE MILDER CONDITIONS LOOK SHORT LIVED
AS THE CURRENT AND PERSISTENT NEGATIVE AO LOOKS TO TANK TO VALUES
SEEN IN MID DEC IN THE 10-14 DAY PERIOD. SEE CPC DISCUSSIONS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACTROSS TX SUN WILL INDUCE WRN
GLFMEX CYCLOGENESIS WITH A REFORMING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENG COAST AND
SEAWARD MID TO LATE PERIOD. NEXT BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER B.C. WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD AND ROTATE THRU THE PLAINS KEEPING WESTERLIES
SUPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH THIS DIFFUSE MID
LEVEL LOW BETTER ORGANIZED BY CMC AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
EXITING OVER NEW ENG WATERS LATE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE SETTLED DOWN CONSIDERABLY HANDLING THE GLFMEX EAST
COAST LOW AND CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATION OF THE
ENTIRE NATION EARLY PERIOD THEN A STRONG THERMAL CLASH ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND EAST MID TO LATE WEEK.

WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
REFORMING FROM THE NORTHEAST GLFMEX TO THE GA/SC COAST MDT TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA AND MUCH SC THERE IS
A VERY POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT MAINLY ICING
MONDAY WITH THIS SPREADING INTO NC MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW MORE LIKELY
NWD THRU THE SRN AND CENTRAL APPLCHNS AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA. DETAILS
TO BE SOLVED IN THE SHORT RANGE. SEE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE
OUTLOOKS AND FUTURE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.

RAINS SPREADING INTO THE WEST COAST AS THE PACIFIC WESTERLIES
RETURN MID WEEK WITH MDT TO HVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA AND INLAND TO THE SIERRA. SIGNIFICANT
HIGHER ELEV SNOWS AGAIN IN THE ID/WY/UT ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.

NEXT ARCTIC SURGE MAY BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MT AND THE DAKOTAS FRI AND SAT.

ROSENSTEIN

[TexasMetBlake]

The cold air just isn't there....





btw, this is the 1,000th post on this thread. lol...crazy.

[srainhoutx]

The cold air just isn't there....



btw, this is the 1,000th post on this thread. lol...crazy.

You're looking in the wrong location, CC. AK will be warmer due to that huge high pressure ridge and the strong southerly flow that has been ahead of it as it's building. Canada is where it will come from as the very cold air flows over that ridge from Eurasia

[tireman4]

Still a long winter. We have long way to go before the final chapter is written.

[randybpt]

Srain. Can you post. A map where the cold temps are right now. Cause I have looked all over nw canada

[wxman57]

I don't see any cold in northern Canada, either. Pressures are starting to rise, but temperatures look above normal there, if anything.

Here's a map:

[srainhoutx]

Srain. Can you post. A map where the cold temps are right now. Cause I have looked all over nw canada

Just remember that the process has just started as of yesterday afternoon of heights building across AK. The Canadian sites are not all that cold yet, but you'll see some near -30's (degrees C) showing up.

[wxman57]

If a significant Arctic front is to reach us in 72 hours, it should be in NW Canada already, and it's not. I made a lunch bet with my coworker on Tuesday that IAH would not see 25F or lower next week. Looks like I'm getting a free lunch.

[mwbwhorton]

Well jackson nws (my area) is calling for possibly 4-8 inches of the white stuff here that will shut this area down i must say with isolated heavier amounts possible too.cold afterwards......

[sleetstorm]

Correct me if I am wrong, but does Siberia have -30's, -40's, -50's, and perhaps even some -60's below zero fahrenheit readings?

Something tells me that arctic air may not arrive in Canada until sometime this weekend.

[tireman4]

If a significant Arctic front is to reach us in 72 hours, it should be in NW Canada already, and it's not. I made a lunch bet with my coworker on Tuesday that IAH would not see 25F or lower next week. Looks like I'm getting a free lunch.

To quote Lee Corso..."Not so fast my friend"...the weekend ends Sunday..

[srainhoutx]

Correct me if I am wrong, but does Siberia have -30's, -40's, -50's, and perhaps even some -60's below zero fahrenheit readings?

Amga, Russia is reporting -51 degrees F at this hour in Eastern Siberia. Lows expected to be near -60 later as well.