January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[redneckweather]

Pretty blah discussion out of the Houston/Galveston office.

[srainhoutx]

Pretty blah discussion out of the Houston/Galveston office.

Pretty low confidence in guidance at this time regarding all the features.

[mwbwhorton]

well about 300-400 miles to your ne we have frozen prep chances saturday night (late) all the way through monday....

[Andrew]

Pretty blah discussion out of the Houston/Galveston office.

Pretty low confidence in guidance at this time regarding all the features.

That cutoff in the Pacific isn't moving much. If it doesn't pick up some speed it might make not make it Sunday. That as a result could produce a more snow for places farther south.

[srainhoutx]

Welcome new folks. Please take some time and go to the user control panel and add your general location. It will help our Pro Mets in discussing the sensible weather in your area, when asked. Again, we are glad you've found us.

[wxman57]

Yes, it was. Here are some weather maps from that freeze. On Dec. 23rd, it hit 7F at IAH:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us1223.php

That link you have is good for past weather events.

Here's another good link, though the maps go back only to 2002:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

[srainhoutx]

Dallas/Ft Worth has updated and clearly spells out the difficult forecast ahead...

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS APPEAR FAVORED BY THE
MODELS...BUT NO TWO MODELS AGREE ON THE PRECIP TYPE AND STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON TIMING BUT NOT ON STRENGTH.
THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER...COLDER SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN WINTER
PRECIP AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. THE GFS IS WARMER AND WEAKER WITH ONLY
RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z NAM HAVE A
MUCH STRONGER...BUT SLOWER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM IS TOO
WARM FOR ANY WINTER PRECIP. THE CANADIAN IS COLD AND STRONG AND
HAS AN AREA OF SNOWFALL IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ALL WRAP UP THE
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN PRECIP LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ALL THIS TO SAY...THE MODELS HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A
SOLUTION...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SURPRISINGLY...THE GEFS SHOWS ONLY A MODERATE SPREAD OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...NONE OF WHICH HAVE THE NAM/CANADIAN
SOLUTION...ONLY ADDING TO THE DIFFICULTY OF THE FORECAST. LEFT
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR A FEW REASONS...IN ORDER OF
IMPORTANCE. ONE...PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
TWO...TEMPS IN MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TOO WARM. THREE...DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE IS NOT SATURATED IN NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FOUR...GEFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES DO NOT FAVOR WINTER PRECIP. IN
CONCLUSION...WINTER PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE AT
THIS TIME.

ARCTIC FRONT APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE FROM SUNDAYS UPPER LOW SO A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED. COLD AIR
SHOULD FILTER IN MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY MORNING AND LOW 20S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BUILD A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COLDEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRID
INTERPOLATIONS FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SINCE
ITS SO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.

[Andrew]

18z is stronger then the 12z for the cutoff.




As for the cold air it looks very similar to the 12z so far.

[mwbwhorton]

looks like jackson can't decide on a coastal runner or inland low.....on the homepage location,location, very important to what precip type i see...

[Andrew]

18z Seems to be a little farther west and a big difference I see from the 12z is the pacific system is slower in coming in which should keep us colder a little longer. The high seems to be sinking south a little faster too. I wonder what this will do with the temps farther in the run.

Doors wide open:

[tireman4]

Time to use the Magic 8 Ball and Dan's Snow Gun!! It seems they have no clue what is going on...DFW...

[srainhoutx]

Much different in the Upper Air charts. Strong high as well. Look at the cold, Coast to Coast depicted by the 18Z GFS.

[Andrew]

Much different in the Upper Air charts. Strong high as well. Look at the cold, Coast to Coast depicted by the 18Z GFS.

I KNOW! 1056mb up north and that pacific "disturbance" seems to be lagging and this run as for the upper air looks a lot similar to the Euro which is good.

[harpman]

Well, we had a few flurries here in metro New Orleans the day after Christmas. I'm hoping after all is said and done after next week, we will have a little more than that.

[srainhoutx]

18Z says we won't start warming slightly until next Friday.

[Cuda17]

I wonder how many folks have more than one weather forum open at one time constantly refreshing the web pages??? Yes, I'm guilty! I'm also browsing STORM2K...

[Andrew]

GFS still seems to be having trouble figuring out what is going to happen

18z



12z




They are many variables at play here so you can understand why many of the offices are having trouble making confident forecasts.

[Andrew]

I wonder how many folks have more than one weather forum open at one time constantly refreshing the web pages??? Yes, I'm guilty! I'm also browsing STORM2K...

I'm guilty too. Welcome to the board.

[mwbwhorton]

cuda17 im browsing 5 at once atm....

[Cuda17]

I wonder how many folks have more than one weather forum open at one time constantly refreshing the web pages??? Yes, I'm guilty! I'm also browsing STORM2K...

I'm guilty too. Welcome to the board.

Thanks, I'm sure I'll learn a lot.