January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[tireman4]

Well twc is saying ice for my area but i really don't know the full picture as the model runs are impressive winter storm wise
but the local tv mets are pretty mum over this atm im right on the egde of a heavy snow but its just to close to call atm..

Where are you Mbwhorton?

[mwbwhorton]

tireman4 im in ne louisiana about 25 miles below the arkansas line,find Monroe on a louisiana highway map then follow US 165
to Bastrop that's ny location....

[tireman4]

The reason why I ask is that it helps Srainhoutx, Wxman57, Candy Cane and others when you ask what is in store for your area, they can know what to tell you...in general terms.

[harpman]

Ok, with that said, I'm in New Orleans.

[mwbwhorton]

Well by just looking at some of the model runs i may see a dangerous ice storm instead of snow however as jackson mississippi
nws (my area) said if the colder solution comes to be then 5-15 inches of snow is possible. i've lived in ne louisiana all my life there has never been a metion of that much snow in the 20+ years ive been interested in weather.....will be 40 in April...

[snowman65]

Yeah..Orange here

[mwbwhorton]

Ok, with that said, I'm in New Orleans.

Are you the same harpman the posts on GCWX?

[harpman]

Yep, I have been getting a lot more info on this forum lately. The other has been fairly dead.

[Andrew]

After looking over the 12z runs again the Euro has snow in NE Texas and I could see a CHANCE that there could be a little mix in the extreme northern counties of SE Texas. Also around hour 180 is when we get the coldest weather from the euro with temps in the mid to upper 20's. As for the cmc it is showing mid 20's out to hour 144 so it looks cold also. Record breaking or not it looks cold and stormy beginning Sunday. Now time for a nap... Hopefully.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors down S in the Rio Grande Valley, Brownsville has updated and it is looking mighty chilly for you folks as well...remember they are just a bit N of the same latitude as Key West...but not surrounded by water...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE
LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND RAIN IT WILL BRING...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POLAR
OUTBREAK BARRELLING SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIP MAY START DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF. MAIN EFFECTS FOR RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT...A COMBINATION OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC LOW TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. MOST DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...KEEPING HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS COULD STILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER
ALONG WITH THE RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND DAWN SUNDAY...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...ALLOWING DRIER AIR AT THE SFC. DRY AIR SHOULD HAVE SKIES
ALMOST CLEAR BY NOON...WITH FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 40S...BUT MASSIVE
POLAR OUTBREAK WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPS PLUNGING
FURTHER INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME CRAWLING OUT OF THE
40S AREAWIDE WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

[mwbwhorton]

Yep, I have been getting a lot more info on this forum lately. The other has been fairly dead.

i tell you harp im a little worried about this storm 5-15 inches of snow would shut ne louisiana down,and if it comes as ice well im not even going there bad would not ne the correct words....

[Andrew]

I don't know if the site I am looking at updated or is having an error but the map I am looking at is saying on the euro 12z run that snow could be seen all the way down close to Houston on Sunday... Weird...

[wxman57]

Can someone explain to me what the numbers next to the color bar represent in the TOP ECMF chart that Sraun posted a bit ago??Thanks

The color bar shows surface temperature in Degrees C. The YELLOW over Houston is 8C, or about 48F. The white over NW Canada is about -25 to -30C (-15 to -22F).

[wxman57]

I don't know if the site I am looking at updated or is having an error but the map I am looking at is saying on the euro 12z run that snow could be seen all the way down close to Houston on Sunday... Weird...

What's the link? 12Z Euro I'm looking at doesn't have much cold air here Sunday:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS072.gif

[Andrew]

I don't know if the site I am looking at updated or is having an error but the map I am looking at is saying on the euro 12z run that snow could be seen all the way down close to Houston on Sunday... Weird...

What's the link? 12Z Euro I'm looking at doesn't have much cold air here Sunday:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS072.gif

I will send you the picture as it is from the Accuweather professional site so I can't post it here.

[wxman57]

In case some were curious, that ECMWF map Andrew was looking at should an area of very light snow not far NE of Houston on Sunday morning. However, as in the snow maps on that twisterdata.com site (http://www.twisterdata.com/), you need to ignore those predicted accumulations under an inch and consider the real snow area to be starting at the 1" or more mark.

[Ptarmigan]

I'd like to make a point about using predicted high pressure values to estimate potential cold down here. Often, very cold Arctic air will be so shallow that there really isn't a very strong high pressure center associated. In December 1989, the high center that crossed into the U.S. was about 1048mb. By the time it reached Arkansas it was down to 1035-1036mb. Now you'd not normally think of a 1035mb high over Arkansas as indicating it would be extremely cold here, but that cold airmass was quite shallow - and quite cold. We were below freezing in Houston for about 4 days, with a minimum of 7 degrees on one morning.

So don't focus TOO much on how many millibars the high center is. Instead, look at the actual cold airmass to estimate how cold it may get here. We can get pretty cold with only a moderately strong high center. It all depends on the character of the Arctic airmass.

The December 1989 freeze was a deep freeze.
http://forums.khou.com/posting.php?mode ... =2&p=16411

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THAT IS GIVING US OUR DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH THE COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AREA
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND TAKES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST OFF
THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO (MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR THE EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES). WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE
AREA TO DRY OUT BEFORE ANY FREEZING PRECIP DEVELOPS...BUT WE`LL HAVE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO SEE IF WE MIGHT
NEED TO MENTION ANYTHING FROZEN UP NORTH. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WITH A SECOND COLD SURGE COMING FROM A REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND AND 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A WARM
UP SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA.

[wxman57]

The December 1989 freeze was a deep freeze.

Yes, it was. Here are some weather maps from that freeze. On Dec. 23rd, it hit 7F at IAH:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us1223.php

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, it was. Here are some weather maps from that freeze. On Dec. 23rd, it hit 7F at IAH:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us1223.php

That link you have is good for past weather events.