January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1204 PM EST THU JAN 06 2011

VALID JAN 06/1200 UTC THRU JAN 10/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES...


MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE INDICATED UNDER THE RELEVANT
SYSTEM HEADING.

RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES INITIALIZED A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
OBSERVED BUT OTHERWISE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THIS LATEST RUN.

...TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEST/NRN ROCKIES...

PREFERENCE: A 2 TO 1 BLEND OF THE 12Z/06 GFS AND NAM

THE LATEST 12Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 06Z RUN BUT IS TRENDING
FLATTER COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN AND 12Z RUN YESTERDAY AS IT BRINGS
ENERGY INTO THE PACIFIC NW SAT AND SUN.
THE NEW GFS IS QUITE CONSISTENT HERE WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN ITS
00Z AND 06Z RUNS. IT IS VERY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 24 CONTINUITY
SAT BUT GETS BACK INTO LINE WITH LATER GFS RUNS VERIFYING SUN.
SLIGHTLY BETTER GFS CONTINUITY FAVORS A HIGHER WEIGHTING THAN THE
NAM.


...ERN PAC CLOSED LOW CROSSING CA TRACKING TOWARD THE SRN
PLAINS...

PREFERENCE:A 2 TO 1 BLEND OF GFS/NAM

THE LATEST 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE DEFINITELY SLOWER IN MOVING THE
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES LATER FRI INTO THE WEEKEND THAN
YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. THE NEW 12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY SHARPER IN THE
BASE OF THE TROF SUN AS IT CROSSES TX...BUT OTHERWISE PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. IT IS VERY SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN 24 HOUR CONTINUITY MOVING THE SYS ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES. AGAIN...SLIGHTLY BETTER GFS CONTINUITY FAVORS HIGHER GFS
WEIGHTING THAN THE NAM.

...JET STREAK RACING SE FROM NRN PLAINS TO NC...

PREFERENCE: GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF

THE VORT LOBES REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE FIRST PART OF
FRI DESCRIBED IN THE NAM EVALUATION WILL ROTATE N AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE CIRCULATION BY FRI EVE AROUND THE MAIN VORTEX
SINKING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THESE INITIAL VORT LOBES
FADE OUT OF THE PICTURE...A NEW JET STREAK WILL RACE SE OUT FROM
THE NRN PLAINS/ UPPER THE MIDWEST INTO TN/NC. THE GFS IS SHOWING
MORE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS JET STREAK THAN THE
NAM...ALONG WITH A STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LEFT EXIT DIVERGENT
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. BELIEVE THAT THE 12Z NAM IS TOO WEAK
WITH THIS JET STREAK AND ITS DYNAMICS...AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE
NEW 12Z UKMET AND THE 00Z ECMWF PLACES A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.

....MAIN VORTEX DROPPING SE ACROSS THE LAKES INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC....

PREFERENCE: A 2 TO 1 BLEND OF THE 12/06 GFS AND NAM

THIS NAM SHOWED THIS FEATURE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER S THAN IN
THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE MAIN UPPER LOW A BIT
W OF CONTINUITY FRI NITE/EARLY SAT THEN CORRECTS IT EWD
THEREAFTER. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CONTINUITY IN THE GFS...WILL
WEIGHT ITS CONTRIBUTION 2 TO 1.



...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML2.SHTML...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

FLOOD

[ticka1]

12Z GFS does predict highs in the mid 30s in Houston on Thursday. That's pretty cold. Cloudcover (or not) will be a big factor as far as how cold it gets at night. And we still have no cold air in Canada to follow...

My thoughts too - until this appears real-time - we can just keep wishcasting with the models.

[sleetstorm]

You know, if the air in Siberia is truly as icy as we have seen then it ought to cause temperatures in Alaska & Canada that are already well below the freezing mark and in some places several degrees beneath 0 ºF to become far icier once it is conveyed over Alaska and Canada. I am just saying.

[srainhoutx]

Here is what Fairbanks, AK had to say this morning...

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
515 AM AKST THU JAN 6 2011
.DISCUSSION...
DYNAMIC PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
SERIES OF STRONG LOWS PLOWING NWD THRU THE BERING SEA...BRINGING
COPIOUS WARM AIR WITH THEM. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW FORECAST AS A MASSIVE HIGH ALOFT TO CLOSE
OFF THIS WEEKEND OVER SW ALASKA AND BUILD NWD...TO BE IN EXCESS OF
580 DM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF KOTZEBUE. THERE IS NO PRECEDENT
IN NEARLY 65 YEARS OF RELIABLE UPPER AIR DATA FOR HEIGHTS THIS
HIGH IN WINTER OVER NW ALASKA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH FAST FLOW AND POORLY HANDLED SHORT WAVES. GFS MOS REMAINS
GENERALLY UNRELIABLE FOR TEMPS OR POPS AND NAM MOS MUCH TOO COLD
BY SAT OVER THE WEST COAST. MID RANGE MODELS COMPLETELY AGREE ON
MEGA HIGH AND NO BACKDOOR COLD AIR INTO ERN ZONES BEFORE LATE
NEXT WEEK.

[TexasMetBlake]

Wowzers...I just woke up from like a 14 hour sleep. These nights of waiting up for the Euro and not going to bed until 3 caught up with me last night. Anyway, instead of reading 10 pages of forum that I have missed, somebody wanna fill me in while I pull up the models myself?

[Andrew]

Wowzers...I just woke up from like a 14 hour sleep. These nights of waiting up for the Euro and not going to bed until 3 caught up with me last night. Anyway, instead of reading 10 pages of forum that I have missed, somebody wanna fill me in while I pull up the models myself?

Canadian showed a 1070mb high euro is colder and gfs is pretty much the same as 00z.

[srainhoutx]

Wowzers...I just woke up from like a 14 hour sleep. These nights of waiting up for the Euro and not going to bed until 3 caught up with me last night. Anyway, instead of reading 10 pages of forum that I have missed, somebody wanna fill me in while I pull up the models myself?

Canadian showed a 1070mb high euro is colder and gfs is pretty much the same as 00z.

And the weekend looks mighty nasty.

[snowman65]

Wowzers...I just woke up from like a 14 hour sleep. These nights of waiting up for the Euro and not going to bed until 3 caught up with me last night. Anyway, instead of reading 10 pages of forum that I have missed, somebody wanna fill me in while I pull up the models myself?

Well, oher than the models are unreliable,...now, you're caught up...lolol

[TexasMetBlake]

Wowzers...I just woke up from like a 14 hour sleep. These nights of waiting up for the Euro and not going to bed until 3 caught up with me last night. Anyway, instead of reading 10 pages of forum that I have missed, somebody wanna fill me in while I pull up the models myself?

Canadian showed a 1070mb high euro is colder and gfs is pretty much the same as 00z.

Yeah, I just saw the 12z gfs. Nothing too impressive. Euro is colder I see and I really don't much into the CMC. lol

[sleetstorm]

With little to no moisture available for sleet and snow to develop in southeast Texas. Is that correct?

[CAK]

12Z GFS does predict highs in the mid 30s in Houston on Thursday. That's pretty cold. Cloudcover (or not) will be a big factor as far as how cold it gets at night. And we still have no cold air in Canada to follow...

My thoughts too - until this appears real-time - we can just keep wishcasting with the models.

Weather...it's whats happening around you while your busy wishcasting. Sorry, had to say it

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the Euro folks. Some changes ahead for the weekend storm.

[TexasMetBlake]

Honestly, I think it's all part of the deal. I mean we're all on this board because have all have a very sick infatuation with the weather---and I'm the sickest. LOL. I mean it's like riding a roller coaster. Part of the fun is screaming your head off with your hands in the air wondering if the cart your in is going to stay on the track (my thoughts, lol). In my opinion, it's fun to think about (at least earlier this week) to think about temps being in the low teens. How often does it happen---and for it, at least for a day or two, be a possibility. It's why I secretly get super excited about being hit by a powerful hurricane. You don't want it to happen, but if it's going to hit anyway, I wanna experience it. Anyway, that's that.

[Paul]

dont get caught up in a 1070H Wxmn 57? I am sorry you dont see those very often....


GFS has always had a hard time with artic air masses. I am not surprised it flopped the last few days. give it some time....hunch it flips back...

[Paul]

Keep an eye on the Euro folks. Some changes ahead for the weekend storm.

Yep...dont put all your eggs in the GFS basket....EURO rocks...always has....CMC has been tweaked and getting better especially in the tropics....

[wxman666]

Hey guys. I have another minor update regarding the severe wx threat. The ABC 13 midday forecast update with Travis Herzog has finally changed their forecast to match everyone else's, calling for a potentially dangerously stormy day Saturday night into Sunday, severe weather a possibility. I will have a bigger update when HGX's afternoon AFD is issued. I am thinking they will soon add the "some storms could be severe" wording to the forecast at some point either today/tonight or tomorrow. Due to the given confidence of the situation...wouldn't be too shocked to see POPs bumped to 100% later down the line for Saturday night/Sunday. I expect SPC will bump it to a slight risk by the day 2 outlook should models continue being this aggressive with the convection. Would be interesting to see how timing on this develops....as to whether or not storms will actually occur overnight Saturday...or if they will be bumped backwards or forwards in time to make it a daytime threat. We'll see. Regardless, looks like Sat/Sun will be pretty darn rough. Hope we all have our flashlights and NOAA radios ready to go.

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/html5/video ... ction=null

[TexasMetBlake]

dont get caught up in a 1070H Wxmn 57? I am sorry you dont see those very often....


GFS has always had a hard time with artic air masses. I am not surprised it flopped the last few days. give it some time....hunch it flips back...

Yeeeaaaahhhhh, BUT...2 days ago, gfs was showing a 1060+ high. Even further back had as high as 1066. At 12z, we're struggling to get to a 1050. While 1040+ highs are strong, they aren't all that impressive. I guess I'm still stuck on it getting super ridiculous cold around here and I haven't accepted the fact yet that the models are no longer showing that. To me, it's looking like a 'stronger than average cold front in January' versus a severe arctic outbreak.

[sambucol]

Keep an eye on the Euro folks. Some changes ahead for the weekend storm.

What kind of changes?

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the Euro folks. Some changes ahead for the weekend storm.

What kind of changes?

The Euro suggests a very stormy pattern across TX/OK/AR/LA. Both severe weather and wintry weather. Temps are colder across N TX/OK/AR/N LA suggesting a wintry weather event as the Upper Low moves across the Lone Star State and a surface low develops along Coastal TX.

[TexasMetBlake]

Keep an eye on the Euro folks. Some changes ahead for the weekend storm.

What kind of changes?

The Euro suggests a very stormy pattern across TX/OK/AR/LA. Both severe weather and wintry weather. Temps are colder across N TX/OK/AR/N LA suggesting a wintry weather event as the Upper Low moves across the Lone Star State and a surface low develops along Coastal TX.

Yes, but where exactly is that precious blue 0c line at? I want streets...LOL