I pray that also transpires, as well, Candy Cane.Andrew wrote:Candy Cane wrote:Oh I agree with you, but I feel obligated to spout the bad news with the good. It's important to review all the data. I'm intrigued by the 18z low off the coast. We're gonna have to watch the evolution of that over the next few runs.Andrew wrote:I think it is important though to realize that this is just the 18z. If this continues for the 00z then I will be interested.
Candy, Idk why it doesn't say any snow or mix. The soundings and snow graphs all paint at least SOME type of mixture- snow.
Yea I know what you mean. Wouldn't life be good if data was always "good data".
After readings Jeff's post, one thing did interest me and that is that if we get enough snow then temps around 33-35 won't matter. It will start sticking. That is also what happened around my house on the December 4th Event. I had a good dusting of snow with temps hovering above freezing. It will also help that all levels except ground should be below freezing.
February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?
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That photo of snow covering the roofs of peoples houses, yards, vegatation, and their vehicles looks like it is around two inches at the most. Is it Andrew?
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Yes they could, txsnowmaker. How long would the sleet/snow stay during Wednesday morning if that model does verify, txsnowmaker?txsnowmaker wrote:I took great interest in Jeff's mention of the possibility of melted snow freezing Wednesday morning along and north of I-10. If the 18z GFS were to verify, early Wednesday morning the snow would really just be getting started for parts of the city in this area. Things could get mighty interesting...
Last edited by sleetstorm on Sun Feb 21, 2010 7:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The GFS would support snow to the coast. I don't know how that determines -ra or -sn, but it's wrongCandy Cane wrote:Can't help but notice that the 12z GFS has all rain for Houston. It keeps going back and forth. We're right on the brink...
http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kiah.txt
I've been busy all morning in Texarkana, and I just made it back from the drive home. Now that I've been able to look at everything, I am pleased to see the GFS trending colder. Last night's 0z run was the warmest, but now the model looks more like the other global models. Looks like we are in for some snow!
One good thing about the upcoming snow event is that we have time on our side. The majority of the snow will be falling as the sun sets, so our evil friend will not be much of a factor. If I was bettting man, I'd say the Houston Metro has a good chance to see an inch of snow out of this thing, with someone across northern portions of SE TX possibly recieving up to half a foot of snow if any mesoscale snow bands or deformation zones develop (as has been discussed). Our snowfall total will all depend on how quickly the rain changes to snow here, and obviously surface temperatures. Once the precipiation falls and begins to cool the column further and down onto the surface, I think temperatures will reach levels similar to the Dec 4th event (mid 30s). If the precip falls heavy enough, it will accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.
The 18z GFS is particularly interesting in trying to develop some kind of surface trough along the coast. That would greatly increase our snowfall totals. However, it is the only model showing that right now.
One good thing about the upcoming snow event is that we have time on our side. The majority of the snow will be falling as the sun sets, so our evil friend will not be much of a factor. If I was bettting man, I'd say the Houston Metro has a good chance to see an inch of snow out of this thing, with someone across northern portions of SE TX possibly recieving up to half a foot of snow if any mesoscale snow bands or deformation zones develop (as has been discussed). Our snowfall total will all depend on how quickly the rain changes to snow here, and obviously surface temperatures. Once the precipiation falls and begins to cool the column further and down onto the surface, I think temperatures will reach levels similar to the Dec 4th event (mid 30s). If the precip falls heavy enough, it will accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.
The 18z GFS is particularly interesting in trying to develop some kind of surface trough along the coast. That would greatly increase our snowfall totals. However, it is the only model showing that right now.
The important thing I hope for is the Austin area (along with Portastorm) receive snow, along with us of course. Poor guy hasn't seen snow in a long time.
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Yea when I measured it, it was about 1-3 inches depending on where you were. That was December 4th for me ( I was one of the lucky few) and it was the most magical thing I had ever seen in my life. Everything was covered with snow and a friend of mine helped me create a 6-7ft tall snowman.sleetstorm wrote:That photo of snow covering the roofs of peoples houses, yards, vegatation, and their vehicles looks like it is around two inches at the most. Is it Andrew?
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00Z’s should be interesting. Getting close to NAM time…'coastal'...hmmm... Enjoy folks...
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What still bothers me is our (Houston) high dew points (and temperature) going into the precipitation Tuesday. It's a rare (if ever) accumulating snow event that starts out that way. I sure would feel more confident about some accumulations if that dew point started out in the low 20s instead of the low 40s as predicted now. I just don't think cold advection can get us there (accumulating snow) in Houston. Things can still change, but don't get your hopes up for a white covering on Wednesday morning. More likely, you'll just see some flurries of snow Tuesday evening that melt soon after hitting the ground.
Time for bed. Hardly any sleep last night. Here's an 18Z GFS meteogram:
Time for bed. Hardly any sleep last night. Here's an 18Z GFS meteogram:
I think the problem with the GFS is the false 10 degree warming it shows during the morning hours of tuesday before temperatures "slowly" fall for some reason as the precip is falling. I don't think the GFS has a grasp on the CAA that will be occuring tuesday morning with thick cloud cover and incoming precip. We will not warm into the lower 50s tuesday afternoon, but with temperatures in the morning in the 40s, we'll likely fall quickly into the mid 30s once precip begins in the afternoon, just like Dec 4th. But unlike Dec 4th, we won't have so much dry air to overcome. Dewpoints did begin in the 20s during that event, but all we ended up with for a very long time here on the north side was a whole bunch of heavy virga. With dewpoints higher during this event, this tells me that the atmosphere is more moist and dry air or virga will not be a problem. This to me is a positive we have going into this event.wxman57 wrote:What still bothers me is our (Houston) high dew points (and temperature) going into the precipitation Tuesday. It's a rare (if ever) accumulating snow event that starts out that way. I sure would feel more confident about some accumulations if that dew point started out in the low 20s instead of the low 40s as predicted now. I just don't think cold advection can get us there (accumulating snow) in Houston. Things can still change, but don't get your hopes up for a white covering on Wednesday morning. More likely, you'll just see some flurries of snow Tuesday evening that melt soon after hitting the ground.
Remember, temperatures and dewpoints were very high just before the Dec 10th, 2008 event. In fact, temperatures and dewpoints were even warmer. Highs on the 9th were near 80 (78 at IAH) with dewpoints in the 70s. CAA and evaporative cooling took care of that the next day.
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Snow for everyone:
This run has a lot more moisture sticking around compared to the last couple of runs and it also shows the colder air sinking south faster. Lets hope the GFS trends the same way.
Still Moisture at Hour 60
This run has a lot more moisture sticking around compared to the last couple of runs and it also shows the colder air sinking south faster. Lets hope the GFS trends the same way.
Still Moisture at Hour 60
Last edited by Andrew on Sun Feb 21, 2010 8:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NAM is colder and more precip...Man, pin and needles...we are not going to know for sure right up until the event it seems.
The 18z GFS is actually slightly better than the NAM as the GFS had more QPF over the area. I do see, though, that the NAM is trending in that direction and toward the colder GFS.Andrew wrote: This run has a lot more moisture sticking around compared to the last couple of runs and it also shows the colder air sinking south faster. Lets hope the GFS trends the same way.
Also, the NAM isn't that great of a model, anyway
We're definitely going to see some snow, but accumulations remain the big question
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Yea i just meant compared to the past runs I hope like the Nam the GFS continues to show a colder and wetter run. It is good though that the NAM is following the GFS, but like you said it is not really that great of a model; at least after 48 hours.Mr. T wrote:The 18z GFS is actually slightly better than the NAM as the GFS had more QPF over the area. I do see, though, that the NAM is trending in that direction and toward the colder GFS.Andrew wrote: This run has a lot more moisture sticking around compared to the last couple of runs and it also shows the colder air sinking south faster. Lets hope the GFS trends the same way.
Also, the NAM isn't that great of a model, anyway
We're definitely going to see some snow, but accumulations remain the big question
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I disagree. I think the NAM is a good model in the first 24 hours. It's the love child of the NWS the first 48 hours out then they turn to the GFS. Right now, we need to watch EVERY model run.Andrew wrote:Yea i just meant compared to the past runs I hope like the Nam the GFS continues to show a colder and wetter run. It is good though that the NAM is following the GFS, but like you said it is not really that great of a model; at least after 48 hours.Mr. T wrote:The 18z GFS is actually slightly better than the NAM as the GFS had more QPF over the area. I do see, though, that the NAM is trending in that direction and toward the colder GFS.Andrew wrote: This run has a lot more moisture sticking around compared to the last couple of runs and it also shows the colder air sinking south faster. Lets hope the GFS trends the same way.
Also, the NAM isn't that great of a model, anyway
We're definitely going to see some snow, but accumulations remain the big question
I agree Paul.Paul wrote:NAM is colder and more precip...Man, pin and needles...we are not going to know for sure right up until the event it seems.
Yeah. I've heard the NAM is fine before 48, but afterwards it likes to be goofy, which we've seen with this storm for sure. It can have some very atrocious looking upper air patterns towards the end of its run.Andrew wrote:
Yea i just meant compared to the past runs I hope like the Nam the GFS continues to show a colder and wetter run. It is good though that the NAM is following the GFS, but like you said it is not really that great of a model; at least after 48 hours.
Which then begs the question as to why they run it beyond 48 hours, anyway. The ETA/NAM has always been known for its very short term forecast product. It just seems like a waste of resources to me. Then again, running the GFS beyond 240 is a waste of resources, too
Howdy fellow forum folks I hope you all are having a great weekend. My kids wanted me to ask you guys if you all thought we might get in the snow action here, we are in Santa Fe and Texas City. Thanks all
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The further north you are, the better the snow chances. If I was in Texas City, I'd be worried. However, things continue to evolve so who knows. 0z will be telling...rnmm wrote:Howdy fellow forum folks I hope you all are having a great weekend. My kids wanted me to ask you guys if you all thought we might get in the snow action here, we are in Santa Fe and Texas City. Thanks all
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Honestly rnmm, it depends on how far south that wave of low pressure tracks, and if a trough of low pressure forms south of Victoria then you certainly could receive sleet/snow sometime during the day on Tuesday into Tuesday night. And, from what some of us on this weather forum have seen, with one computer model snow/sleet could last into Wed morning or until afternoon. But again, that is a large IF as far as snow/sleet lasting into Wednesday morning or even afternoon mainly because only one model shows that senario & because arid air could end snow/sleet sooner. As srainhoutx has said numerous times before in the past, "stay tuned, we shall see".
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