January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Andrew]

Interesting. Looks like Tim Heller disagrees with HGX and some of the models, calling for all rain on Sunday for the whole area...nothing frozen. HGX still says wintry mix possible north.

Do you have a link I couldn't find it on the site?

Sure. http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=7881973

I actually meant for HGX. If you could thanks.

[Mr. T]

Thank you all for all your diligence in tracking the weather for us. I just checked intellicast. That was disappointing. Is that a good source for seeing what we are looking at weather wise for the next few days?

I could talk about how it's automated and uses a special formula using the GFS and all that stuff, but I'll just keep it short and say "no"

[helloitsb]

On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.

can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.

[Mr. T]

I agree for the snow this weekend. I was talking about the possibility of snow with next weeks event but snow this weekend just doesn't look like it will happen.

Well as wxman has been saying the Houston weather service does not like to forecast extreme temps this far out. I am sure the temps will come down as time goes on.

Oh, I agree with you too. My amatuer comments weren't pointed toward anyone in particular.

[wxman666]

On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.

can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Sorry...I need to get better at remembering to provide links.

[helloitsb]

On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.

can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Sorry...I need to get better at remembering to provide links.

thanks!

[Andrew]

I agree for the snow this weekend. I was talking about the possibility of snow with next weeks event but snow this weekend just doesn't look like it will happen.

Well as wxman has been saying the Houston weather service does not like to forecast extreme temps this far out. I am sure the temps will come down as time goes on.

Oh, I agree with you too. My amatuer comments weren't pointed toward anyone in particular.

No I know I was just saying in general I expect the temps to drop. Like you said though 00z should be fun. I feel like a kid in a candy shop.

[Andrew]

On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.

can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Sorry...I need to get better at remembering to provide links.

thanks![/quote]

Here is what they said

A
CONCERN IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GETTING CLOSE TO A RAIN SNOW
MIX AND THE ECMWF IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (CLL-UTS- LIVINGSTON) NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO ADD RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY STICKING TO ROADWAYS BUT TREES AND
GRASSY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

[wxman666]

Sorry...I guess I'm seeing a different update. I saw that this afternoon. Here is the current version...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE TONIGHT. 47

&&

[Andrew]

Sorry...I guess I'm seeing a different update. I saw that this afternoon. Here is the current version...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE TONIGHT. 47

&&

No I know this was the version before it was backing up what you said.


Also btw the GFS is running here is the link for anyone who wants to follow it:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Ptarmigan]

Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.

They are rare events to begin with. There have been 56 instances of where the average temperature was 32 or lower with the lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's since 1969 at KIAH. The last time that happened was in January 2010. It happens on average about ever 0.75 years. Interesting to note a large gap from 1997 to 2010.

Code: Select all

Date	Average Daily
1/7/1970	32
1/5/1972	31
1/10/1973	32
1/11/1973	29
1/12/1973	29
1/8/1976	31
1/10/1977	31
1/18/1977	32
1/10/1978	32
1/17/1978	30
1/19/1978	29
1/20/1978	25
1/21/1978	28
1/1/1979	31
1/2/1979	26
1/14/1979	32
2/11/1981	30
1/11/1982	23
1/13/1982	31
1/17/1982	32
2/6/1982	31
12/22/1983	27
12/23/1983	28
12/24/1983	21
12/25/1983	20
12/26/1983	25
12/29/1983	29
12/30/1983	31
1/19/1984	30
1/20/1984	32
1/21/1985	28
2/1/1985	25
2/2/1985	30
2/3/1985	32
1/8/1988	31
2/4/1989	26
2/5/1989	29
2/6/1989	27
2/7/1989	29
3/5/1989	32
12/16/1989	28
12/22/1989	24
12/23/1989	18
12/24/1989	27
12/22/1990	29
12/23/1990	27
12/24/1990	30
12/31/1990	29
2/2/1996	32
2/3/1996	32
2/4/1996	32
12/18/1996	32
1/13/1997	31
1/14/1997	32
1/8/2010	29
1/9/2010	32

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the night crew will be active. Here's hoping for some agreement concerning this weekend and the Pacific Storm.

[Andrew]

Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.

They are rare events to begin with. There have been 56 instances of where the average temperature was 32 or lower with the lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's since 1969 at KIAH. The last time that happened was in January 2010. It happens on average about ever 0.75 years. Interesting to note a large gap from 1997 to 2010.

Code: Select all

Date	Average Daily
1/7/1970	32
1/5/1972	31
1/10/1973	32
1/11/1973	29
1/12/1973	29
1/8/1976	31
1/10/1977	31
1/18/1977	32
1/10/1978	32
1/17/1978	30
1/19/1978	29
1/20/1978	25
1/21/1978	28
1/1/1979	31
1/2/1979	26
1/14/1979	32
2/11/1981	30
1/11/1982	23
1/13/1982	31
1/17/1982	32
2/6/1982	31
12/22/1983	27
12/23/1983	28
12/24/1983	21
12/25/1983	20
12/26/1983	25
12/29/1983	29
12/30/1983	31
1/19/1984	30
1/20/1984	32
1/21/1985	28
2/1/1985	25
2/2/1985	30
2/3/1985	32
1/8/1988	31
2/4/1989	26
2/5/1989	29
2/6/1989	27
2/7/1989	29
3/5/1989	32
12/16/1989	28
12/22/1989	24
12/23/1989	18
12/24/1989	27
12/22/1990	29
12/23/1990	27
12/24/1990	30
12/31/1990	29
2/2/1996	32
2/3/1996	32
2/4/1996	32
12/18/1996	32
1/13/1997	31
1/14/1997	32
1/8/2010	29
1/9/2010	32

Always coming through with the stats. Thanks Ptarmigan

[Andrew]

NAM at hour 84 says rain and the cold air building in NW Canada

[wxman57]

Cold air in Canada Sunday morning but not so cold in Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

Always coming through with the stats. Thanks Ptarmigan

Your welcome Andrew.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the Upper Low is a bit stronger so far, compared to the 18Z through 48 hours.

[Cleanupman]

I dont post much here so what i say should be taken with a grain of salt, but i have been living here in Houston for 20+ years and this seems like a classic outbreak. If that high shows up on a real map i don't think there is much worry whether it comes south, its coming and with the snow pack over the rockies i don't see it loosing much punch. So looking at some of the maps its bringing real cold south then stops it, not gonna happen that cold will keep south into Mexico. Just kinda remembering the past what has happened. Thats my .02 people

[redneckweather]

Good analysis cleanupman and I agree. The question is, how cold will the air actually be? Time will tell.

Keep the info coming guys...much appreciated.

[srainhoutx]

Coastal low much stronger through 90 hours. Heavy rains/storms Saturday into Sunday from S TX up the Coast. E and NE winds, N of the rain in N and Central TX. MCS looks possible.