wxman666 wrote:Interesting. Looks like Tim Heller disagrees with HGX and some of the models, calling for all rain on Sunday for the whole area...nothing frozen. HGX still says wintry mix possible north.
Do you have a link I couldn't find it on the site?
jabcwb2 wrote:Thank you all for all your diligence in tracking the weather for us. I just checked intellicast. That was disappointing. Is that a good source for seeing what we are looking at weather wise for the next few days?
I could talk about how it's automated and uses a special formula using the GFS and all that stuff, but I'll just keep it short and say "no"
Last edited by Mr. T on Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
wxman666 wrote:On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.
Andrew wrote:I agree for the snow this weekend. I was talking about the possibility of snow with next weeks event but snow this weekend just doesn't look like it will happen.
Well as wxman has been saying the Houston weather service does not like to forecast extreme temps this far out. I am sure the temps will come down as time goes on.
Oh, I agree with you too. My amatuer comments weren't pointed toward anyone in particular.
wxman666 wrote:On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.
wxman666 wrote:On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.
Andrew wrote:I agree for the snow this weekend. I was talking about the possibility of snow with next weeks event but snow this weekend just doesn't look like it will happen.
Well as wxman has been saying the Houston weather service does not like to forecast extreme temps this far out. I am sure the temps will come down as time goes on.
Oh, I agree with you too. My amatuer comments weren't pointed toward anyone in particular.
No I know I was just saying in general I expect the temps to drop. Like you said though 00z should be fun. I feel like a kid in a candy shop.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
wxman666 wrote:On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.
Sorry...I need to get better at remembering to provide links.
thanks![/quote]
Here is what they said
A
CONCERN IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GETTING CLOSE TO A RAIN SNOW
MIX AND THE ECMWF IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (CLL-UTS- LIVINGSTON) NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO ADD RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY STICKING TO ROADWAYS BUT TREES AND
GRASSY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Andrew wrote:
Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.
They are rare events to begin with. There have been 56 instances of where the average temperature was 32 or lower with the lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's since 1969 at KIAH. The last time that happened was in January 2010. It happens on average about ever 0.75 years. Interesting to note a large gap from 1997 to 2010.
Andrew wrote:
Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.
They are rare events to begin with. There have been 56 instances of where the average temperature was 32 or lower with the lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's since 1969 at KIAH. The last time that happened was in January 2010. It happens on average about ever 0.75 years. Interesting to note a large gap from 1997 to 2010.
I dont post much here so what i say should be taken with a grain of salt, but i have been living here in Houston for 20+ years and this seems like a classic outbreak. If that high shows up on a real map i don't think there is much worry whether it comes south, its coming and with the snow pack over the rockies i don't see it loosing much punch. So looking at some of the maps its bringing real cold south then stops it, not gonna happen that cold will keep south into Mexico. Just kinda remembering the past what has happened. Thats my .02 people
Coastal low much stronger through 90 hours. Heavy rains/storms Saturday into Sunday from S TX up the Coast. E and NE winds, N of the rain in N and Central TX. MCS looks possible.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity