January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[randybpt]

Hmmmm....ok rain guess ill leave the snow machine out. Does it look like we could have wet bulb temps below 25 for an extended period?

[srainhoutx]

Apparantly, I don't know how to read those....to me, yellow means hot, purple means cold....looks hot to me......

Reds are warm. Deep purple is bitter cold. The Euro suggests the coldest air of the season showing up in Calgary at day 10. Also of note is a front diving S into the Plains in that time frame as well.

[srainhoutx]

I'd give another day or so, Randy. The Euro as well as the Canadian seem to be handling things a bit better, for NOW.

[srainhoutx]

Here are the 850 temps off the Euro...

[randybpt]

Thanks. There is alot of prep work to do. I just had hernia surgery so im going to have to recruit help. If you are wxman think there is a slight chance to have wet bulb temps in mid 20s next week ill start with the prep. Last year during jan 7 cold snap I was able make bout 8ooo sq ft of snow. Now that I know how to work everything better its more prep time.....even going to try and make snow jump for snowboard

[srainhoutx]

Will do Randy. Remind wxman57 as well. Here is the 12Z UKMET...hour 144...

[redneckweather]

Good stuff srain....keep it coming and thanks!!

[txsnowmaker]

If the Euro were to prove to be correct in its suggestion of freezing or below freezing temps for our area from Monday to sometime Thursday, when would one anticipate the GFS models to begin trending in that direction as well?

[srainhoutx]

These flip flops often occur up until the 48-72 hour time frame. More encouragement for the Arctic Air comes via HPC Forecaster Paul Kocin as well...

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
151 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 09 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 13 2011

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS ACTUALLY A RELATIVELY SIMPLE ONE AS A
LARGE CUTOFF ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

THIS UPPER HIGH BUILDS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SUNDAY DAY 4 TO JUST NORTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT ON THURSDAY/DAY 8.

WITH THE OVERNIGHT AND 12Z FORECASTS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THE IDEA OF HAVING ENERGY ROTATE WESTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THE MORE PREVAILING VIEW IS
THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING COLD DRY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN CANADA AND THE PANHANDLE.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS BUT THE MEAN PRESSURES SIMPLY SHOW A GENERAL
RISE IN PRESSURE OVER THE MUCH OF THE STATE EXCEPT THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

THERE IS A MORE SUPPORT TODAY THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL BREAK OFF THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING TOWARD SIBERIA AND PASS OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW CANADA. ALL 12Z
RUNS SHOW SUCH A SYSTEM ON DAYS 5 INTO 6/MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WHILE THIS MAY TEMPORARILY DISRUPT THE BUILDING SURFACE
HIGH...ONCE IT PASSES INTO NW CANADA...PRESSURES LOOKED PRIMED TO
RISE.

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z EUROPEAN RUN.

KOCIN

[LegalEagle]

I have just joined this forum and have been reading about this cold snap next week. How sure are we that it is going to get bitter cold in Houston? I've lived here all my life and as my mom puts it, I'll believe it when I feel it. The media has hyped on this before and then it moves off to the East or something. Yes, it's fun, but it also frustrates me when the weather people start with this hype and then nothing happens.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, preparation procedures are still in order. We don't know anything for sure yet. At this stage, this event being off or on means nothing. If the models were consistantly saying no way, that is one thing, but we still have reason to hang to a maybe. I'd hate to see any of you get caught without supplies. Confidence may be low today, but we have three more days to analyze this event. Remember, disappointed and surprised are both tricky emotions in the weather department.

[wxman57]

I have just joined this forum and have been reading about this cold snap next week. How sure are we that it is going to get bitter cold in Houston? I've lived here all my life and as my mom puts it, I'll believe it when I feel it. The media has hyped on this before and then it moves off to the East or something. Yes, it's fun, but it also frustrates me when the weather people start with this hype and then nothing happens.

We're not sure at all. I'd give it (temps in low 20s down to central Houston) about a 20-30% chance of happening. It's just a possibility at this point, not a certainty. Kind of like when a hurricane enters the Gulf but is forecast to hit the Louisiana coast. It's not forecast to impact us, but it's still a possibility. Model trends are definitely moving away from an extreme event.

Currently, a major freeze event is not FORECAST to impact Houston, it's just a possibility. We have to plan for the potential hard freeze, even though it's more likely not going to materialize. Same as preparing for a Hurricane even when it's not currently forecast to hit us.

[ronyan]

Low 20s isn't even that cold, I'd like to see some teens. Those events are rare of course, but it will happen sooner or later.

[brazoria121]

Figures...if u want extreme cold and snow its simple..over up north. .prolly wont happen here in Houston

[wxman57]

Figures...if u want extreme cold and snow its simple..over up north. .prolly wont happen here in Houston

Were you here in 1989? We had 4 days below freezing for HIGHS. Temps down to 7 degrees with highs in the 20s for 4 days! The 1983 event was just as bad, though not quite to 7 degrees. Days below freezing for highs. So it CAN happen here - just not likely next week.

[don]

If you took the 12z euro for all its worth it actually shows snow on the backside of the system this weekend even into southeast Texas but im very doubtful that will happen...

[Ptarmigan]

Were you here in 1989? We had 4 days below freezing for HIGHS. Temps down to 7 degrees with highs in the 20s for 4 days! The 1983 event was just as bad, though not quite to 7 degrees. Days below freezing for highs. So it CAN happen here - just not likely next week.

I remember the December 1989 freeze. It was really cold. There was snowfall that time. Then after the freeze, it was not cold anymore.

[Ptarmigan]

I think a freeze is likely. I have seen models that around MLK Jr. Day that it could get another shot of cold winter.

[Ptarmigan]

Folks, preparation procedures are still in order. We don't know anything for sure yet. At this stage, this event being off or on means nothing. If the models were consistantly saying no way, that is one thing, but we still have reason to hang to a maybe. I'd hate to see any of you get caught without supplies. Confidence may be low today, but we have three more days to analyze this event. Remember, disappointed and surprised are both tricky emotions in the weather department.

I know the Boy Scout motto, "Always be prepared". I rather be safe than sorry. Three days out should give us a better idea.

[Ptarmigan]

Ensembles are trending away from any extreme event next week as well as from any extreme cold the following week. Remember when 7-9 days ago the GFS was forecasting snow here this coming weekend? It seems that this winter we cannot trust the model runs much out beyond 48 hrs. Things could still turn around, though, meaning that some Arctic air MAY build in NW Canada this weekend and move south.

Those models are bullish, than back off, and than bullish again. What's up with that?