BiggieSmalls wrote:Based on what we know, what is more likely; the cold air slipping more east, or the cold air getting here as predicted but not being all that cold after all? Just asking since so many of these advertised events don't pan out....
Slipping to the east seems like a more possible outcome then the air not being all that cold. The setup continues to show some very cold weather and that shouldn't change. Will it go to the east? That is possible but right now it is looking like it is going to sink pretty far south before heading east.
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MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE 1060MB POOL OF VERY
COLD...ARCTIC AIR SPILLING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DETAILS CONCERNING THE LONGEVITY AND
DEGREE OF COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT
WITHOUT A DOUBT...THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SEASON. ATTM...PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF THE SFC RIDGING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND KEEPING IT THERE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS
OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ARCTIC AIR TO FAR EAST TOO
QUICKLY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE WATCHED IN EARNEST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...BUT THIS AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DOES MIMIC SOME OF THE MORE NOTABLE MCFARLAND SIGNATURES IN THE
PAST...INCLUDING DECEMBER OF 1983 AND DECEMBER OF 1989. HAVE MADE
MENTION OF THIS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...TALKING ABOUT
THIS AIRMASS NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MAKING PREPARATIONS.
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Seriously... It's not a lot, but it's plenty for me to be happy
plus if this was the forecast, according to the current gfs run it would be cold enough to stick and then after it would stay a few days which would be cool, all speculation and hope right now, trying not to get to attached but its hard when you see the models
THEREAFTER...A POTENT UA DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT CAA FOR THE
REGION THANKS TO A 1055 MB SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH INDICATIONS OF 850
MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO NEAR MINUS 10 DEGREES CELSIUS BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IS VALIDATED ATTM. HENCE THE CAA WILL INDUCE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVER NIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOCALES. FURTHERMORE...ONE THING
TO KEEP IN MIND IN REGARDS TO TEMPS IS THAT SINCE ARTIC AIR IS
RATHER DENSE...IT COULD AFFECT THE REGION SOONER THAN IS BEING SHOWN
/MEANING SUNDAY RATHER THAN MONDAY/. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO LOWER
TEMPS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
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EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
BRINGING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO SOUTH TEXAS SO FAR THIS SEASON.
THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON HOW COLD IT WILL GET...FOR HOW LONG
AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS AIRMASS. STAY TUNED!
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THE LATE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ALSO LOOKS VERY INTERESTING IN
TERMS OF A POTENTIAL VERY COLD AIRMASS MAKING ITS ARRIVAL INTO WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THAT A POLAR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING/VERY
COLD AIR HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE INDICATED 850 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS GOING WELL BELOW
MOS NUMBERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE TRIMMED HIGHS MONDAY A LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY. THOSE COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IF THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES.
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THEREAFTER MODELS
IN LARGER SCALE AGREEMENT THAT A MASS OF MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL INVADE THE CWA TUESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING FOR MOST OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
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Arctic air doesn't often slide off to the east, so I'd say that's not as good a possibility as the possibility that it's just not as cold as the models are forecasting. That kind of cold, dense air just slides straight south lee of the Rockies. Sometimes it doesn't even reach SE LA except after it modifies considerably.
What we don't know is how cold the air will become in the source region over the next 3-5 days (NW Canada). It's not too cold there now. Once we get an idea what kind of airmass we're dealing with, we'll have a better idea how cold it might get down here. May know that in 2-3 days, maybe longer.
