January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[tireman4]

Contigous...meaning the lower 48 and you were really close...

[brazoria121]

awsome,thanks guys!

[srainhoutx]

Folks, the NWS offices across the region are ramping up with their HWO's (Hazardous Weather Outlook) concerning the Arctic Air mass. Updates are coming in now and the afternoon discussions should be very interesting.

[tireman4]

Yeah, but how much will HGX bite on this. Will they still remain conservative? That is the $64,000 question.

[Mr. T]

A few of the GFS ensembles do show a threat for a sizeable snowstorm around these parts just a tick after day 7... Not sure if it is a legitimate threat, but something to keep one open eye on in the coming model runs I suppose...

[wxman57]

NWS won't stray too far toward extreme cold in their 7-day forecast until it's nearly a certainty. For now, all that looks likely is that we'll see a freeze across Houston sometime next week. There's a possibility of some significant cold (i.e., low of 20F or so) but that's not a certainty by any means. There's also a slight possibility of wintry precip, but I would certainly not forecast such precip at this time.

[Mr. T]

NWS won't stray too far toward extreme cold in their 7-day forecast until it's nearly a certainty. For now, all that looks likely is that we'll see a freeze across Houston sometime next week. There's a possibility of some significant cold (i.e., low of 20F or so) but that's not a certainty by any means. There's also a slight possibility of wintry precip, but I would certainly not forecast such precip at this time.

Here's an even better certain statement:

We will see a cold front early next week.

[TexasMetBlake]

I don't see it as much of a stretch to say we could see widespread teens across the area. Low teens, high teens? I don't know. But the upper-levels are colder than last year. The synoptic pattern at 500 mb is much more favorable. The high is stronger and the air is colder. No reason to think we'll 'only' see 20 degrees. HOWEVER, I'm one model run away from saying otherwise so we wait...

[ronyan]

Without snow low 20s would be weak sauce. Killing all the plants without anything interesting, we might as well have teens or break some records.

[biggerbyte]

Wow! Look at the number of folks in the forum...

Welcome to all. The newbies could be in for a winter treat in the coming days. Two or three more days and I'll jump on the fast train to some real winter around these parts. Here is to hoping the current trends continue. I feel like a kid waiting on Santa. Lol
Newbies, just be prepared for anything in the forecast over the coming days so that you are not too let down should something happen. I personaly do not see how we would miss out on this event, even this number of days in advance. There are so many positive players in this event to bring this cold airmass south, instead of bypassing Texas.

[brazoria121]

Wow! Look at the number of folks in the forum...

Welcome to all. The newbies could be in for a winter treat in the coming days. Two or three more days and I'll jump on the fast train to some real winter around these parts. Here is to hoping the current trends continue. I feel like a kid waiting on Santa. Lol
Newbies, just be prepared for anything in the forecast over the coming days so that you are not too let down should something happen. I personaly do not see how we would miss out on this event, even this number of days in advance. There are so many positive players in this event to bring this cold airmass south, instead of bypassing Texas.

yeah for inland areas right? ppl along the coast would not get "any fun" if it were to happen correct?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is going to start some chatter, I suspect. More in a bit.

[TexasMetBlake]

The 12Z Euro is going to start some chatter, I suspect. More in a bit.

You big tease. I know how to contact you, Steve. Don't make me....LOL!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is going to start some chatter, I suspect. More in a bit.

You big tease. I know how to contact you, Steve. Don't make me....LOL!

Hush you. I'll be back in a bit.

[Mr. T]

The 12Z Euro is going to start some chatter, I suspect. More in a bit.

Way better than the 0z, yup... 1044 mb high in the OK Panhandle at day 7.

Much stronger block in Alaska than the GFS, too... Looking at it on the Plymouth site, heights are up to 585 in Northern Alaska by day 7, higher than Orlando, FL at that point

No arctic outbreak cancel

[redneckweather]

It looks like the euro brings it straight south with a very deep trough off the coast at hr. 168. How strong is the high on the euro in northwestern Canada before it is pushed southward?

[srainhoutx]

At hour 144, the Euro suggests snow in the Panhandle. By hour 168, freezing line is all the way to the Coastal TX.

[Mr. T]

It looks like the euro brings it straight south with a very deep trough off the coast at hr. 168. How strong is the high on the euro in northwestern Canada before it is pushed southward?

At its height it looks to be around 1055 mb on the 24 hour panels. Since we don't have access to individual frames, we don't really know the true highest pressure, unless someone that pays for the Euro could be kind enough to tell us poor folk...

[TexasMetBlake]

Hey Steve, what's the high res look like for the Euro. What is the max pressure this run?

[srainhoutx]

Hey Steve, what's the high res look like for the Euro. What is the max pressure this run?

My 'source' had to go around the 144 mark (Conference Call). We'll have to rely on what we peasants get via the freebies.