January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[sambucol]

A bit different view tonight via the 00Z. Have fun night crew. Good to see our folks active...

Srainhoutx - that's not nice - leaving us non-model mapreaders without a short explanation what its showing!! Can other jump in and give me a brief on what its showing.....

I would like to know, too!

[Andrew]

A bit different view tonight via the 00Z. Have fun night crew. Good to see our folks active...

Srainhoutx - that's not nice - leaving us non-model mapreaders without a short explanation what its showing!! Can other jump in and give me a brief on what its showing.....

I would like to know, too!

It is the NAM's taking of what will happen with the cold air. It is showing the upper levels of the cold North of Canada on the 6th of January.

[helloitsb]

is it just me or is the 0z moving very slow?

I have things to do in the morning!

[skidog38]

3 days of snow. look what myforecast.com has for katy. looks like cold is coming and staying.

[biggerbyte]

That site is showing about 5 days of a mess around here. Fun mess...
Well, not for some I guess..

[Andrew]

is it just me or is the 0z moving very slow?

I have things to do in the morning!

The first part is always slow but it speeds up later on. Should be completely done by 10:30 or so.

[helloitsb]

3 days of snow. look what myforecast.com has for katy. looks like cold is coming and staying.

that is hilarious! Not sure how reliable that website is but awesome to see none the less!

I know TWC isn't the most reliable but I hope they jump on pretty soon, same with accuweather! Pretty ballsy but ya know

[Andrew]

3 days of snow. look what myforecast.com has for katy. looks like cold is coming and staying.

that is hilarious! Not sure how reliable that website is but awesome to see none the less!

I know TWC isn't the most reliable but I hope they jump on pretty soon, same with accuweather! Pretty ballsy but ya know

Most all forecasts including myforecast.com that far out are straight model forecasts. Meaning what the GFS or EURO (or other models) is showing, they take that and put it into the forecast. Usually no forecaster is involved in this process.

[helloitsb]

is it just me or is the 0z moving very slow?

I have things to do in the morning!

The first part is always slow but it speeds up later on. Should be completely done by 10:30 or so.

alright thanks, haven't had a reason to stay up for the gfs in a while! No way you will catch me staying up for the Euro, I'll wake up early for that

[Andrew]

is it just me or is the 0z moving very slow?

I have things to do in the morning!

The first part is always slow but it speeds up later on. Should be completely done by 10:30 or so.

alright thanks, haven't had a reason to stay up for the gfs in a while! No way you will catch me staying up for the Euro, I'll wake up early for that

I am debating the euro... We will see how i feel in an hour.

[Andrew]

Shorter term GFS shows rain:





BTW GFS is showing a stronger ridge.

[srainhoutx]

1062mb Arctic high. Interesting. Good night...

[Andrew]

1062mb Arctic high. Interesting. Good night...

You can't leave the forum with an interesting comment . I expect a full report from you tomorrow explaining what you think.

[Andrew]

WOW!

[helloitsb]

I'm inexperienced but it seems that the cold is definitely there but the moisture is not

[ronyan]

Wow, the 0 C isotherm is well into Mx. Is that 850mb Andrew?

[Andrew]

Wow, the 0 C isotherm is well into Mx. Is that 850mb Andrew?

Yea it is. The moisture is there but later on in the run. It loses the ridge and pushes the colder air east which shouldn't happen as fast. That should be corrected when the event gets closer.

For what it is worth the GFS shows a low of 19 degrees.

[helloitsb]

Wow, the 0 C isotherm is well into Mx. Is that 850mb Andrew?

Yea it is. The moisture is there but later on in the run. It loses the ridge and pushes the colder air east which shouldn't happen as fast. That should be corrected when the event gets closer.

For what it is worth the GFS shows a low of 19 degrees.

yeah it gets freezing the moisture comes in pushes air away and then more cold air comes in, you are saying this could change where we can get some moisture in with the cold before it pushes east?

[Ptarmigan]

If this powerful high was to pan out, when could the freeze happen? It looks like it first appears next week, which means it could be cold around Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which is January 17th. That's one strong high pressure system right there!

[Andrew]

Wow, the 0 C isotherm is well into Mx. Is that 850mb Andrew?

Yea it is. The moisture is there but later on in the run. It loses the ridge and pushes the colder air east which shouldn't happen as fast. That should be corrected when the event gets closer.

For what it is worth the GFS shows a low of 19 degrees.

yeah it gets freezing the moisture comes in pushes air away and then more cold air comes in, you are saying this could change where we can get some moisture in with the cold before it pushes east?

Yea if you look at the Contour lines they are oriented pretty much straight south which would indicate the cold air heading straight south. What happens is the high pressure pretty much breaks up and like Mr. T was saying earlier the upper levels show a different story. Precip at this time frame is impossible to predict but I think it is def possible.