New Year's Eve Weather

[srainhoutx]

A bit over 1/2 inch of rain so far and just had a lightning strike in NW Harris County.

[biggerbyte]

Totally wettacular...

[tireman4]

Did the front not beat the prog? I thought it was supposed to come in later.

[tireman4]

THE RAIN AREA WAS ALREADY
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO
CLL AT 3 PM AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
HOUSTON BETWEEN 6 AND 8.

Nevermind....LOL

[srainhoutx]

It appears to be a bit ahead of schedule. Also note the Upper Air Disturbance (short wave) diving SSE. This feature looks to be a bit W of guidance and could suggest additional rain and possibly some small hail as well for areas NE of the UA feature. Also note up stream near Iowa the polar branch S/W forcing S rapidly. This may well increase chances of a phasing event and a greater chance of a Major East Coast Winter Storm. RECON is scheduled starting tomorrow for this storm.

[biggerbyte]

Nice rains here in Porter. I hope all of you were as fortunate. Now the cold.

[redneckweather]

Just heard from a reliabe source in Montgomery that snow flurries are mixing in with the drizzle right now. I even made sure that he wasn't seeing drizzly floating around and he said yep, he's positive it is flurries. Is the atmosphere even cold enough to mix in some flurries?

[srainhoutx]

Just heard from a reliabe source in Montgomery that snow flurries are mixing in with the drizzle right now. I even made sure that he wasn't seeing drizzly floating around and he said yep, he's positive it is flurries. Is the atmosphere even cold enough to mix in some flurries?

There were reports up in Gainesville of snow mixing in earlier today. I do know that the U/A disturbance is stronger/colder the the 00Z guidance suggested via the HPC. Past experience would say it's not out of the question with these very cold upper lows.

[wxman57]

Just heard from a reliable source in Montgomery that snow flurries are mixing in with the drizzle right now. I even made sure that he wasn't seeing drizzly floating around and he said yep, he's positive it is flurries. Is the atmosphere even cold enough to mix in some flurries?

Here's a RUC sounding loop. There appears to be a narrow time between 4am-7am when the moisture aloft was right along the 0C line. I measured 0.96" of rain overnight in southwest Houston.

[srainhoutx]

Merry Christams everyone. Looks like near an inch of very welcome rainfall in my back yard. Just walked the dogs and there is some mist/drizzle in the air and temp is 39.

[Ptarmigan]

Last night we got a nice rainstorm. It was truly a Christmas gift from Santa Claus. Much appreciated!

Merry Christmas!

[srainhoutx]

Now that the Christmas Eve storm has passed our area, it's time to look ahead to our next weather events. The GFS continues to advertise a wet mid week and a strong storm coming out of the Pacific with a very deep Western trough and moisture surging in from the SW via the STJ (sub tropical jet). This appears to be a powerful storm and very dynamic with both a severe side as well as a winter weather event for some folks in TX and the Southern Plain. More later, but we are certainly seeing a pattern change to a much more active period ahead.

[svrwx0503]

Like srain posted above, the 12z GFS is advertising the possibility of what would be a very potent severe weather/winter weather event across much of the state and southeast Texas late Friday (31st) into Saturday (1st). It indicates a very deep 500mb trough digging into northern Mexico with a strengthening 90-110kt jet in the upper levels. Most importantly for us in southeast Texas is the fact that the model keeps 850mb winds out of the due south which will limit any capping inversion along with greatly enhancing low level shear values. This type of setup in previous years has lead to quite widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across the region along with much of the state. Another concerning ingredient is that the GFS is indicating CAPE values in the 2000-2500 range Friday afternoon and night which is indicative of a very unstable atmosphere for late December/early January and will lead to more than enough energy for storms to become severe.

Now the Canadian model isn't run out far enough to pick up on the event yet but at 144 hours it does show some agreement with the GFS; however the 12z euro looks to be the outlier at this time with a much less amplified pattern shown and not even a rain event down here.

Needless to say, we are a week away and will likely see some changes in the models but should the 12z run verify, we will likely be in for a stormy start to the new year. If memory serves me right, we started out 1999 with a significant severe/tornado outbreak across the state.

[TexasBreeze]

The next run or as time gets closer it will probably show a sunny warm day with storms far away! haha

[Ptarmigan]

Like srain posted above, the 12z GFS is advertising the possibility of what would be a very potent severe weather/winter weather event across much of the state and southeast Texas late Friday (31st) into Saturday (1st). It indicates a very deep 500mb trough digging into northern Mexico with a strengthening 90-110kt jet in the upper levels. Most importantly for us in southeast Texas is the fact that the model keeps 850mb winds out of the due south which will limit any capping inversion along with greatly enhancing low level shear values. This type of setup in previous years has lead to quite widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across the region along with much of the state. Another concerning ingredient is that the GFS is indicating CAPE values in the 2000-2500 range Friday afternoon and night which is indicative of a very unstable atmosphere for late December/early January and will lead to more than enough energy for storms to become severe.

Now the Canadian model isn't run out far enough to pick up on the event yet but at 144 hours it does show some agreement with the GFS; however the 12z euro looks to be the outlier at this time with a much less amplified pattern shown and not even a rain event down here.

Needless to say, we are a week away and will likely see some changes in the models but should the 12z run verify, we will likely be in for a stormy start to the new year. If memory serves me right, we started out 1999 with a significant severe/tornado outbreak across the state.

Yes, we did start 1999 with a severe weather outbreak. It was mostly hail and strong winds for Houston area on January 1, 1999.

Code: Select all

TexasLocation or County	Date	Time	Type	Mag	Dth	Inj	PrD	CrD
1 Webster 	01/01/1999	10:49 PM	Hail 	0.75 in.	0	0	3K	0 
2 Houston 	01/01/1999	11:24 PM	Hail 	0.75 in.	0	0	5K	0 
3 Houston 	01/01/1999	11:24 PM	Tstm Wind 	52 kts.	0	0	5K	0 
TOTALS:	0 	0 	13K 	0

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi ... ent~Storms

[srainhoutx]

Wow, temps have dropped well below freezing in NW Harris County (27 at this hour) even with some light winds. It appears the coldest air of the season will settle into SE TX tonight and then we shift to an interesting week ahead. Guidance suggests a robust Coastal trough/low pressure will move N into Central TX increasing rain chances Tuesday/Wednesday and warm up there after as a powerful storm takes shape in the SW dropping a very deep trough into the Western CONUS. There are some differences between the GFS and Euro, but what is consistent is the continued advertisement of a very strong storm in the Southern and Central Plains with both severe and winter sides affecting parts of TX. We will need to watch this event closely as the week progresses as it could bring some interesting weather both Friday and Saturday into our region in time for the New Year. Stay tuned as they say.

[redneckweather]

The weather yesterday on Christmas Day was absolutely perfect...and unexpected I guess you could say. I figured temps would approach 50 with the sun breaking out through the day but that never happened. I woke up to 39 degrees yesterday morning and my thermometer never moved! It felt very chistmasy out, that's for sure. The rain, gusty winds and rapidly dropping temps on Christmas Eve was even better. I believe the good Lord blessed us with this kind of weather on Christmas because of all the misery we have gone through this past fall season.

Keep up the good work and updates Srain! I'm hoping models start trending for some good wintry weather somewhere within a 3 to 5 hour drive from my house. My family and I are ready for a good snow chase!

[redneckweather]

Just looked over a few things concerning the New Years Eve possibilities of winter weather. It looks like north Texas and on into Oklahoma will be the places to be. Hopefully accumulating snow possibilities will track further south but I'm not opposed to going into Oklahoma. Usually it wouldn't be a problem getting the wife to go but this looks to be a New Year's Eve storm which means party time. I say the hell with a party but the wife might thing otherwise.

[srainhoutx]

I'd keep an eye out around the 7th-10th of January. The GFS has been 'hinting' something interesting for winter weather lovers during that time frame. Bust of coarse that will be an different month and Topic I suspect.

[Paul]

todays 12Z GFS shows nada.....back to the typical boring weather....