September 2026

[Pas_Bon]

I looked at the radar, maybe near 11pm last night, and dadgum if that thing didn't still look like an inland mini-hurricane with an easy to see semi-eye. I think that was near Votaw. Had broken down by 12:15 am.

It had a lot of strengthening momentum right up (and even for a bit after) landfall.....very grateful it did not have more time over water.
It was an impressive little storm, for sure.

[tireman4]

I will say the atmosphere is still juiced ( PWATS over 2.0) and the convective temperatures are low (85 and up). With any tropical air induced areas, the chance for torrential downpours is there. That being said, I think ( HGX has a 50 percent chance) showers and thunderstorms will have an adequate chance to form (with afternoon heating) anywhere in the CWA (remnants not withstanding). Tropical thunderstorms ( with high PWATS) are efficient rainmakers ( putting 2-3 inches down in a hour) so the flood watch continues. There is a chance for training as well because of the tropical induced air.

[tireman4]

Matthew Cappucci

[tireman4]

Ethan Kerr ( this met disagrees with the Brown Ocean Effect for Edouard. I still think it is because of the high moisture content in the air. Just my opinion)

And Matt Lanza has pushed back on the Brown Ocean Effect too...both make valid and salient points..no matter what we were taught..LOL


Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
I have to push back on some of the "brown ocean effect' discourse. Tropical cyclones, even over land, notoriously get stronger in terms of thunderstorms at night. That is normal. It's also why there was a VERY strong signal on a lot of models yest that it would dump overnight.

[suprdav2]

Zilch minus a couple of sprinkles in Cypress. NWS has already lowered rain chances down to 30%. Feast or famine.

[Stratton20]

Next time frame to watch for a possible wide spread heavy rain event across the state looks to be between the 11-15th of this month. GFS keeps indicating a possible pacific system recurving into mexico, moisture transports into texas bring widespread rains to much of the state. This is a fair solution thats in play given the eastern is on a roll with spitting out systems , also a recurve would greatly alter our stubborn heat ridge pattern, basically it would put an end to it

[tireman4]

More on the Brown Ocean Effect. Again, very salient and cogent thoughts on the subject. ( I had not thought about the green ocean effect...lol)


Matthew Cappucci

@MatthewCappucci
·
31m
So I did some additional homework reached out to several researchers regarding this. They provided some interesting thoughts.

In my post, I noted that Edouard probably couldn’t “know” about the drought because all it encountered was hot 80-85 degree soils that had been freshly drenched and resaturated by its outer bands.

Dr. Marshall Shepherd, who specializes in this, wrote “I often wonder if dry environment means a storm can produce a flash Brown Ocean Feedback.”

This would fit that bill, though obviously a more detailed study needs to ensue.

Interestingly, with Erin in 2007, the weeks prior to the system's arrival were dry. That allowed the topsoil to dry out and heat up. Then they were re-moistened last minute by Erin's outer rainbands, allowing the Brown Ocean Effect to play a role. (Arndt et al. 2009; Evans et al. 2011; Monteverdi and Edwards 2010; Andersen et al. 2013).

Dr. Brad Johnson wrote that “I believe the relatively small size of [Edouard] and its slow forward motion lead to a disproportionate relationship with the land surface environment.”

He further posited that “green ocean effect” may be playing a subtle role too due some evapotranspirational moisture feeding latent heat release.

Important nuance too that Brown Ocean isn’t a binary yes/no thing; it’s very frequently a contributing factor to TC sustenance, among others. (Obviously this system’s Gulf connection plays a big role too.) After all, nothing in meteorology exists in isolation.

[DoctorMu]

Matthew Cappucci

It's amazing what a big gulp of 93°F water before landfall can do to a tropical system. Edouard remained a tight closed loop low to maintain strength and limit a wide spread of rainfall. El Zippo here in College Station with rain in Huntsville - was afraid of this. The breeze here just dried up the lawn.

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner on Facebook.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, Jeff sent this over email.
I’ll believe it when I see it at this point.

[Stratton20]

Looks like CPC/ NOAA alines with my thinking in the 6/10 and 8/14 day periods. Dry conditions out in. the east with near normal to above normal precipitation odds across the entire state of texas. Looks like the classic ridge out east with moisture flow and trough out west. Texas is right in the middle between the two

[jasons2k]

Nothing here overnight or today.
Flood warnings just a few miles away. Figures…

That storm is just teasing you at this point.

Indeed it is.

[jasons2k]

So close, yet so far away…

[jasons2k]

The trolling continues. Lots of thunder, lightning and dark skies to my north as it pivots away to the ENE.

[jasons2k]

That went from 0-100 real quick! Saw a tornado trying to form to the NE, we were under the circulation as it passed. Tornado warning was issued. It was intense there for a few minutes. Up to .97” now.

[davidiowx]

Site is loading awfully slow..

Really hope those storms make it down to me. Not holding my breath though.

[davidiowx]

That went from 0-100 real quick! Saw a tornado trying to form to the NE, we were under the circulation as it passed. Tornado warning was issued. It was intense there for a few minutes. Up to .97” now.

Yes that was wild. Was at my daughter’s softball practice watching that on radar. Glad you got some!

[Kludge]

That went from 0-100 real quick! Saw a tornado trying to form to the NE, we were under the circulation as it passed. Tornado warning was issued. It was intense there for a few minutes. Up to .97” now.

Yeah I thought about you when Jeff posted his 'blue circle' graphic. His posts tend to scare Lucy away. And sure enough that feeder formed right in the circle. Glad you got a momentary downpour. Hopefully Eduardo's remnants will keep some showers around for another day or so.

[MH5]

Still missing out on all the action down here.. but at least that feeder band set up a nice sunset?

[DoctorMu]

Jeff Lindner on Facebook.

Nailed it. As Edouard unwound a spiral band of showers moved SE. I just got BBQ chicken off the grill by a minute before a heavy burst of rain. First significant/measurable rain since July 14