August 2026

[Stratton20]

its possible, the biggest limiting factor is time, has about 48 hours left over water. But shear is very low and dry air also is low. I would say its unlikely, but given its in a pretty conducive environment, i would agree with David Paul that there is an outside shot this becomes a low end hurricane

[captainbarbossa19]

OK please don't shoot the messenger, but a few minutes ago i heard KHOU's David Paul mention an outside chance of a cat1 hurricane.

He's not wrong to mention this a possibility although not very high. Thunderstorms are becoming more organized near the core currently and we're technically at diurnal minimum which is a little concerning. Humberto in 2007 was able to organize very quickly in about 24 hours. The 18z Euro is showing a more defined circulation and it seems models are playing catch up today due to the system's small size. Scale is definitely an issue here. Need to watch very closely.

[jasons2k]

GFS brings it here Tuesday.

[jasons2k]

Small systems can intensify quickly. Also a lack of data. The models will be playing catch-up for sure.

[Stratton20]

Now up to 70%, the fact that we are seeing a healthy convective burst over the center during the time of day in which convection would fall apart, it’s definitely slightly concerning

[DoctorMu]

GFS brings it here Tuesday.

Headed toward Grimes County there with a bullet.

[davidiowx]

Latest from Jeff:

Increasing chances of a tropical depression or tropical storms into the upper TX or SW LA coast Tuesday into Tuesday night

High chance (70%) of a tropical system forming in the next 48 hours

Increasing threat for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and possible flooding over portions of the area Tuesday and Wednesday

Persons should closely monitor weather forecasts from trusted sources.

Discussion:
97L is located about 100 miles south of southern LA early this evening and drifting to the southwest or WSW around 5mph. Recently deep convection has redeveloped near the broad center of circulation that was noted on late afternoon visible images IR Satellite Loop for Invest 97L | Tropical Tidbits . 97L is located has found a “sweet spot” in the north-central and northwest Gulf where wind shear values are running generally less than 10 kts and satellite images show even a bit of favorable upper level outflow on the western flank of the system.

Track:
12Z and 18Z track guidance is tightly cluster on a general WNW track toward the Chambers and Jefferson County area with a landfall Tuesday. There has been some shifting around of the guidance mean and clustering today, but overall no significant changes. After landfall a continued WNW to NW motion across the eastern and northern portions of SE TX can be expected in the general direction of Huntsville by Wednesday. On this track impacts can be expected across portions of SE TX including the Houston metro area from Tuesday into Wednesday. Timing, duration, and amount of impacts will be defined over the next 24 hours.

Note that unlike Arthur and Bertha the structure of 97L as it moves inland will not be under the influence of strong wind shear so a more classic and symmetrical tropical system structure is likely which will favor banding features both west and east of the center.

Intensity:
Conditions are actually fairly favorable for development with little wind shear and very warm water temperatures in the 87-89 degree range. The only thing that really appears to hold back any significant development is the short window over the northwest Gulf (24-36 hours) and maybe a bit of dry air along the SW LA coast. No intensity guidance shows this system becoming more than a mid range (45-55mph) tropical storm.

Impacts:
Bands of rainfall and squalls with gusty winds will begin to approach the upper TX coast late Monday night and increase in intensity and coverage into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Gusty winds of 40-50mph can be expected along the coast and in Galveston Bay along with periods of heavy rainfall. Guidance has been trending upward on rainfall totals and widespread amounts of 2-5 inches are looking likely east of I-45 with 1-3 inches west of I-45 with isolated higher totals. WPC has placed a large portion of the area under a level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk for Tuesday into Tuesday night. There could be a fairly sharp cut-off on the western side of the circulation on rainfall. Some minor coastal flooding may be possible, but at this time no significant coastal flooding is expected.

Monitor forecasts frequently for updates.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if we have Edouard soon.

[captainbarbossa19]

I would not be surprised if we have Edouard soon.

I agree. My coworker just informed me that Google AI now has odds at 62% for RI at hour 48. We need to watch this one closely.

[Ptarmigan]

The NAM 3km Model has it as a very small tropical storm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3018&fh=43

[Stratton20]

I am curious, in terms of pressure drop per hour, what would classify as rapid intensification?

[captainbarbossa19]

I am curious, in terms of pressure drop per hour, what would classify as rapid intensification?

42 mb drop or a >=30 knot wind increase over 24 hours is defined as RI.

[captainbarbossa19]

I am curious, in terms of pressure drop per hour, what would classify as rapid intensification?

So per hour that would be about 1.75 mb.

[Ptarmigan]

I am curious, in terms of pressure drop per hour, what would classify as rapid intensification?

Rapid intensification is a drop of 42 millibars in 24 hours. That is 1.75 millibars per hour.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

[jasons2k]

The NAM takes it right over my house.

[Stratton20]

97L is still maintaining very healthy convection over its center, most cases with these developing systems the convection would die out at this time of the day, but its persisting, not saying it will happen, but this possibly could take over tommorow given there really isnt much shear or dry air to stop it

[DoctorMu]

I would not be surprised if we have Edouard soon.

I agree. My coworker just informed me that Google AI now has odds at 62% for RI at hour 48. We need to watch this one closely.

It is definitely strengthening overnight.

[DoctorMu]

Proto-Edouard is getting its act together - towers and central convection building at 10 pm.

[Scott747]

IR is looking sorta pretty but still looks like dry air is keeping it in check and it continues to be a very small circulation.

[dp6]

Up to Cat 1 I can deal with (as long as it keeps moving), so I hope it goes directly over my property. Inoculation against a stronger hurricane later in season, since the odds of 2 hitting the same location the same month are very low...

Strategery....