July 2026

[Stratton20]

Seabreeze should be fairly active for a while, models agree on that , seeing signs in the pacific that at some point around mid august the ridge pattern over the central US is going to get re shuffled, ridging should set up over the pacific NW, which could open the door to more widespread wetter conditions to return. I think mid august and beyond could potentially turn much more active

[Rip76]

Seabreeze should be fairly active for a while, models agree on that , seeing signs in the pacific that at some point around mid august the ridge pattern over the central US is going to get re shuffled, ridging should set up over the pacific NW, which could open the door to more widespread wetter conditions to return. I think mid august and beyond could potentially turn much more active

Active beginning when?

[Stratton20]

Late august like post 20th ish, so unfortunately it is a pretty slow process, and the first half looks exceptionally hot and dry with maybe an isolated shower around. But im watching the pacific, with the western pacific go off with several major typoons forming, and the west pacific is likely to stay active over the next 3-4 weeks. Eventually some of these typoons that form are going to to recurve, especially east of Japan, should force a major upper air pattern change across NA, heat ridge looks to re position in Pacific NW

[DoctorMu]

Saturday evening is probably the best chance of rain in a while/for awhile. August in Texas.

Around August 15 there's a signal for a potential FROPA some rain chance.

I still don't see a Death Ridge in SETX through the first 2 weeks in August - just good ol' hot Texas weather.

[DoctorMu]

So, you're saying there's a chance...

...even NOAA is grudgingly giving CLL a 40% chance of rain tomorrow. Then lower DPs. Then miserable again...


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry today.

- A cold front will bring a chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening through very early
Sunday.

- Next week`s outlook features seasonably hot and humid conditions
with isolated afternoon showers and storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Texas remains in the grip of a strong mid/upper ridge centered over
New Mexico. However, one can see signs of flux in the pattern by
taking a gander at the water vapor imagery. Over the northern
plains, there is a robust mid/upper disturbances that is trending
from a strong shortwave trough to a more longer wave system. As
ridging retrogrades into W CONUS this weekend, the aforementioned
trough should help shift lower mid/upper heights westward in the
central CONUS, eroding the ridge over Texas. The mid/upper system
will also foment LL cyclogenesis, resulting in a sfc low that tracks
across the Midwest this weekend. The low will have a trailing cold
front that pushes into southeast Texas by Saturday afternoon or
night. What do all these factors entail for our weather here in SE
TX?

The dry and hot regime will continue today. Inland afternoon highs
in the upper 90s will be common once again, with a few areas
reaching 100 degrees. Sufficient mixing should keep peak heating dew
points low enough to prevent widespread heat indices reaching or
exceeding 108F (Heat Advisory criteria). That being said, various
locations did briefly reaching 108-109F on Thursday, so I suspect
that will happen again today. Remember that normal Texas heat is
dangerous. Today`s temperatures should be a tad hotter than normal.

The trailing cold front approaches the region on Saturday. The exact
timing of the front will be crucial regarding convection and
temperatures. LL frontal convergence may already be sufficient to
initiate at least shallow convection along and ahead of the front.
But moisture / thermodynamic profiles could allow for deep
convection, especially if these forcings are able to interact with
peak daytime heating. A front that waits until Saturday evening /
night will have less day time heating to play with, while a Saturday
afternoon FROPA will obviously have more. Couldn`t rule out an
isolated stronger thunderstorm if the timing works out. Saturday`s
temperatures are expected to be in the mid/upper 90s. But with a
veering LL wind profile and enough sunshine ahead of the front, I
couldn`t rule out temperatures trying to spike up to around 100
degrees in our central and southern counties ahead of the front.

Interestingly, guidance has trended towards a somewhat stronger
front, featuring much lower dew points in its wake. How far south
this dry air extends is uncertain. But it appears dew points as low
as the 50s could make it into our northern zones, while dew points
well down into the 60s could push all the way to I-10. If the
front`s associated showers/storms/clouds are able to clear, yielding
a bright, sunny Sunday with low dew points and light northerly flow,
then it`s possible my mid/upper 90s temps on Sunday are a little
low. But I`ll stick with mid/upper 90s for now.

The outlook for next week continues to look seasonably miserable,
with highs in the mid/upper 90s, isolated diurnal showers/storms,
and heat indices well over 100 degrees.

Self

[DoctorMu]

A definite maybe on a few drops on the mesos. I don't expect much accumulation if it does rain. Still, an August 1 FROPA visit, even if fleeting is welcome.