July 2026

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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AtascocitaWX
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So basically the LLC is moving NE and and new LLC may form under that SW blob. Interesting.
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djmike
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IMG_0827.jpeg
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Question: Just curious. The models seem to have shifted southward to around matagorda but NHC is keeping the storm in the northern gulf into Houston area the last two location updates. Are they ignoring the models or seeing something the models are not?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Pas_Bon
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djmike wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 10:16 am IMG_0827.jpeg

Question: Just curious. The models seem to have shifted southward to around matagorda but NHC is keeping the storm in the northern gulf into Houston area the last two location updates. Are they ignoring the models or seeing something the models are not?
A little of both
Cromagnum
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Naked swirl heading ashore. I suspect that blob to the SW will not do anything. Stick a fork in this one.
Stratton20
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i wish the shear direction wasnt out of the NE, really sucks we wont get anything out of this, i despise this heat
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Rip76
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Yes, very gross.
Wait until 3/4 pm.
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djmike
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Observation: Seems like every storm that remotely comes to Texas last few years are always heavily sheared and peter out before anything arrives.
Im definitely not asking for devastation, but a little bit of gusty excitement and some heavy showers would be nice from a weak TS system.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
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djmike wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 12:04 pm Observation: Seems like every storm that remotely comes to Texas last few years are always heavily sheared and peter out before anything arrives.
Im definitely not asking for devastation, but a little bit of gusty excitement and some heavy showers would be nice from a weak TS system.
We got a direct hit from Beryl in 2024. We were in the NE eyewall for hours and had to get a new roof while trying to sell our home.

We also got pretty close to a direct hit from Nicholas in 2021
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DoctorMu
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Even CLL saw a lot of rain and wind from Beryl. Then it stopped raining altogether.
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DoctorMu
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Here's your naked swirl pin shot of the day:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19 ... 0x1000.gif

Image
Cpv17
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Don’t think we’ll crack 100 here. Already past 2 and just at 97°F. Not nearly as bad as places N of I-10.
Stratton20
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NWS showing highs at or just near 100 this weekend here, i want to cry
Cromagnum
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 1:01 pm Here's your naked swirl pin shot of the day:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19 ... 0x1000.gif

Image
I just don't see any way a new LLC forms while the other one is spinning away like a top. I would think the old one would have to completely open for a new one to take over.
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jasons2k
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I hit 101° yesterday. It’s 102° now.

Anyone have severe thunderstorms on their bingo card for this evening?
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Rip76
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 2:42 pm I hit 101° yesterday. It’s 102° now.

Anyone have severe thunderstorms on their bingo card for this evening?
Not on my card, but I did hear about them.

But where are these popping up from?
Cpv17
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 2:50 pm
jasons2k wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 2:42 pm I hit 101° yesterday. It’s 102° now.

Anyone have severe thunderstorms on their bingo card for this evening?
Not on my card, but I did hear about them.

But where are these popping up from?
Heat driven feeder band from Bertha
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 2:42 pm I hit 101° yesterday. It’s 102° now.

Anyone have severe thunderstorms on their bingo card for this evening?
The naked swirl is appropriately now over the French Quarter...while she delivers misery and...

Beat Down Heat to this part of Texas. I've just gotten home and am closing all the shades.

103.3°F IMFY; 105°F at KBTX, 102°F at the airport

Heat Index = 123.1°F IMFY; 120°F at the airport.

- High sun angle
- Cloudless
- Ambient temps. 5°F+ over body temp
- High Dewpoint/humidity

That's Beat Down Heat for me.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 3:37 pm
jasons2k wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 2:42 pm I hit 101° yesterday. It’s 102° now.

Anyone have severe thunderstorms on their bingo card for this evening?
The naked swirl is appropriately now over the French Quarter...while she delivers misery and...

Beat Down Heat to this part of Texas. I've just gotten home and am closing all the shades.

103.3°F IMFY; 105°F at KBTX, 102°F at the airport

Heat Index = 123.1°F IMFY; 120°F at the airport.

- High sun angle
- Cloudless
- Ambient temps. 5°F+ over body temp
- High Dewpoint/humidity

That's Beat Down Heat for me.
Crazy difference for just being 2 hours apart, but the heat index is just 113°F here.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2026 2:19 pm NWS showing highs at or just near 100 this weekend here, i want to cry
You’re gonna love the latest CPC forecast 💀 :lol:
Stratton20
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Cpv17 oh dont worry, ive set my AC to the low 60’s, i wont go outside again until october lol, im fine with door dashing and ordering stuff online when i need grocieries, i absolutely refuse to go out in this heat at all lol
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