July 2026

[Stratton20]

Bertha is continuing to get even stronger, and its not far from reaching cat 1 status, looks like my prediction may not be so far fetched

[Brazoriatx979]

Bertha is continuing to get even stronger, and its not far from reaching cat 1 status, looks like my prediction may not be so far fetched

you da man Stratton! lol

[Brazoriatx979]

No real changes with the 10am update. So, is it looking likely that we won't see much in the way of rain with this thing?

[tireman4]

Let me give some sage advice from a mentor of ours who passed just recently. Dr. Neil Frank stated that never let your guard down when studying and predicting tropical systems. Until it disapates, anything can happen, even in a weakend state. Even a depression can cause torrential flooding with trained cells. With PWATs normally over 2 inches, tropical storms can be efficient rain makers.

[Pas_Bon]

No real changes with the 10am update. So, is it looking likely that we won't see much in the way of rain with this thing?

Newest flight data won't be reflected in operationals until later this morning and this afternoon. If there is any update, you'll see it show up at 4pm, maybe 1pm

[Scott747]

Slim chance Bertha becomes a hurricane and if the shear forecast is correct there won't be much left once it gets near the upper texas coast.

The movement n has hurt those chances. Would need to see it reform under the southern side with one of the pulses that it should show over the next 48 hrs (as the GFS is hinting at.)

Could maintain if it begins to move more westerly soon but still will be an uphill battle.

[Rip76]

Yes, I believe it would need to move west pretty quickly.

[Pas_Bon]

Yes, I believe it would need to move west pretty quickly.

Looks like it's already begun that W forward movement

[Stormlover2020]

Hmon says hold my coffee

[Brazoriatx979]

Hmon says hold my coffee

unfortunately I dont think thats going to matter

[Rip76]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 211745
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...BERTHA BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish
Line in Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line to the
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

[biggerbyte]

The only safe storm is a dead one. Nearly every forecast so far has been substantially off with this system. Until it enters the Houston area and moves off, please do not let your guard down.

Side note. Bertha is very close to Cat 1 strength, and the convection has begun to wrap around the center. Food for thought.

[Stratton20]

several short range models ( WRF , RRFS models ) also show very aggressive solutions. It has begin its expected west turn, but the last center pass showed a pretty healthy dive to the SW, this matters a lot because models today have been trending more towards bertha staying off shore, giving it a lot more time over water before reaching texas. Obviously the shear will be a big player, but there are indications that the environment may become a bit more conducive in the western gulf. Id rather be safe and sorry and watch this like a hawk, than dismiss and say its going to be a nothing burger.

[Texas Deadhead]

A lot of people slept on Harvey as well until it became apparent it was going to be bad. About a week prior, they thought the storm was dead except for one weather model suggesting that it would reorganize after it went over the Yucatán. I’ll never sleep on a TS until it’s way past me.

[sambucol]

I agree. Never turn your back on a homegrown storm in the Gulf.

[DoctorMu]

Let me give some sage advice from a mentor of ours who passed just recently. Dr. Neil Frank stated that never let your guard down when studying and predicting tropical systems. Until it disapates, anything can happen, even in a weakend state. Even a depression can cause torrential flooding with trained cells. With PWATs normally over 2 inches, tropical storms can be efficient rain makers.

That tropical energy has to go somewhere...and as water temps. continue to rise...these can be a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Bertha could be a naked swirl Saturday near Temple, TX. Just a bit of rain - that's all we want!

[DoctorMu]

A lot of people slept on Harvey as well until it became apparent it was going to be bad. About a week prior, they thought the storm was dead except for one weather model suggesting that it would reorganize after it went over the Yucatán. I’ll never sleep on a TS until it’s way past me.

Harvey went from DOA to a CAT4 just before slamming into Rockport in just a couple of days. Then just sat around and dumped 55 inches over the next few days.

[Stratton20]

While the current LLC remains exposed. a new very deep burst of convection has completely covered up the MLC to the south of the LLC, that has my attention, its possible a new LLC tries to form there