July 2026

[Brazoriatx979]

Looking a little better organized this afternoon..if that coc can move under that convection to the sw we may have something here

[DoctorMu]

Booooo! Id rather take a hit from a TS than deal with another week of 100 degree weather and dry conditions, this absolutely sucks a**

I still have PTSD from the Summer of 2023 when that El Niño flipped the switch and the spigot turned off for months leaving us with 112.5°F weather every day.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu oh i remember that one too well. I was taking summer courses at A&M. Walking to class felt like i was walking in a pizza oven

[DoctorMu]

Just looking for some lemonade at the end of the week. Is that too much to ask for?

[DoctorMu]

There's a very slim chance that the dry air moves west just ahead of Bertha, which should be at best a disorganized mess when it finally reaches the Texas coast.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

Just give me clouds and some rain.

[Rip76]

Just looking for some lemonade at the end of the week. Is that too much to ask for?

Wouldn't it be better if the "COC" came in North of Houston? With the dry air up top.

[Rip76]

Get ready for the big suck.

[Stratton20]

GFS/ ICON getting closer to keeping this offshore , if it can stay offshore, it still probably wont strengthen that much, but GFS does get this down to 994 MB tommorow. Keep it offshore might give it a better chance at holding together as it moves west, I just want some decent rain bands and cooler weather

[Ptarmigan]

We have Bertha.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2351.shtml

Code: Select all

000
WTNT32 KNHC 202351
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED 
INTO TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
*  Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.
 
Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on
Tuesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 86.0 West.  Bertha has 
been drifting erratically near 3 mph (6 km/h), but a northwestward 
motion is expected tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a 
west-northwestward or westward motion.  On the forecast track, 
Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the 
next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible 
during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) 
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical 
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header 
WTNT42 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 
inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches through Friday 
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western 
Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of 
Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas 
of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and 
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.
 
TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible over the Florida
Big Bend region this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the 
Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Pas_Bon]

GFS/ ICON getting closer to keeping this offshore , if it can stay offshore, it still probably wont strengthen that much, but GFS does get this down to 994 MB tommorow. Keep it offshore might give it a better chance at holding together as it moves west, I just want some decent rain bands and cooler weather

I have learned that the GFS is now about as reliable as “Baghdad Bob.”

[Scott747]

Latest advisory has it tracking across Galveston/Tiki Island and then in-between Alvin/Angleton.

Thank the sheer. Storm has reformed a little s which may help lessen the land interaction but the sheer throughout the track will keep it from intensifying.

Otherwise we would have a potential problem.

[Stratton20]

I think this will over achieve and reach category 1 status sometime tommorow. ICON is in with the new fata from the flights ingested. Moderate tropical storm moving into matagorfa bay, most of the rain is south of the center, but the wind field is pretty large, still could see scattered rain bands on that track and definitely tropical storm force winds, the center has jumped S to SE tonight, that is being shown in the ICON run

[Cromagnum]

Meh, its just going to make Texas into a convection oven. Nobody is getting rain from this.

[Scott747]

Overnight hurricane models remain less than impressed. Whatever center is there is relentlessly blasted by shear.

N of the center would be breezy with a few sprinkles.

[Scott747]

Will say that recon has found a stronger storm at 998 and 50 mph. Not sure if it will matter unless it stays further s.

[DoctorMu]

Just looking for some lemonade at the end of the week. Is that too much to ask for?

Wouldn't it be better if the "COC" came in North of Houston? With the dry air up top.

At this point, yes.

[Stratton20]

Very nice upper level outflow expanding on the south- southwest side of the system, i definitely didn’t see this being sub 1000 by the end of this day , hopefully we dont wake up to see Bartha pulling a rabbit out of a magician’s hat on us

[sambucol]

Very nice upper level outflow expanding on the south- southwest side of the system, i definitely didn’t see this being sub 1000 by the end of this day , hopefully we dont wake up to see Bartha pulling a rabbit out of a magician’s hat on us

Me either.

[tireman4]

The 7 am intermediate advisory

[Cpv17]

Looks like Bertha strengthened pretty good this morning.