July 2026

[tireman4]

Satellite Imagery

[Brazoriatx979]

Looks like she is trying to wrap around

[Stratton20]

First center pass through, 1010 MB so its still broad and weak, however TD 2 has begun to moisten the environment around it. So for now its slowly organizing, but if we start to get a bigger burst of convection over the center, that could change

[Cpv17]

First center pass through, 1010 MB so its still broad and weak, however TD 2 has begun to moisten the environment around it. So for now its slowly organizing, but if we start to get a bigger burst of convection over the center, that could change

DMAX tomorrow morning.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yup, also the plane did find that the LLC is further south than anticipated, even just a bit further south can have massive implications on its future. Will be interesting to see this data go into this evenings model runs

[Brazoriatx979]

Anyone else having a problem with 2k loading so slow?

[Cpv17]

Anyone else having a problem with 2k loading so slow?

Yep, it’s been that way for a few days now.

[Stratton20]

Plane found on the 2nd pass through the center, a more SW jog, pretty interesting, could keep this over water far longer on its westward journey across the gulf

[Stormlover2020]

Icon cat 4 Matagorda bay

[Stratton20]

Holy sh*t, ICON just went gung ho

[Brazoriatx979]

Well it is the icon...I dont believe it

[Stratton20]

Maybe maybe not, but their definitely is a legitimate chance this can become a hurricane, the fact it jogged SW leads me to believe its going to have more time over water to work with. The ICON has done pretty well with some storms in the past, and their is definitely other guidance that suggests a hurricane is possible. Have to watch this one like a hawk

[Brazoriatx979]

Not ruling out a hurricane but the icon often over does the size and intensity of the storm..but who knows it is the gulf and anything can and will happen

[Cpv17]

Not ruling out a hurricane but the icon often over does the size and intensity of the storm..but who knows it is the gulf and anything can and will happen

ICON was nails with Beryl.

[ClearLake77]

Not ruling out a hurricane but the icon often over does the size and intensity of the storm..but who knows it is the gulf and anything can and will happen

ICON was nails with Beryl.

This! Only one that stuck with Beryl when everyone and everything else blew it off

[DoctorMu]

Probably nothing here, but keep the eyes peeled.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

I don’t think for a second that it’s nothing. I’m somewhat concerned.

I meant "here" as in College Station. Having said that, 12z Euro-AI and CMC take a weakened tropical system into Texas. I don't really see a Bermuda High or a Death Ridge. A SW ridge near the Mexican border will deliver NW flow...but prevailing winds near the surface in Florida and the Gulf this time of year (mid June - mid September) are Easterlies.

So, I'll allow some lemonade to potentially spread toward Texas Friday and Saturday.

With NW flow if the system becomes organized, it's heading into MS, LA, AL, or the FL panhandle.

[DoctorMu]

Not ruling out a hurricane but the icon often over does the size and intensity of the storm..but who knows it is the gulf and anything can and will happen

ICON was nails with Beryl.

ICON saw the gap between the two ridges.

[AtascocitaWX]

Not ruling out a hurricane but the icon often over does the size and intensity of the storm..but who knows it is the gulf and anything can and will happen

ICON was nails with Beryl.

This! Only one that stuck with Beryl when everyone and everything else blew it off

Facts!!!

[DoctorMu]

Holy sh*t, ICON just went gung ho

Yeah, finally looked at the ICON. Their trend is toward stronger with now Euro and CMC in agreement as far as the path. Hmmmmmmm...may need to recalibrate.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, we can't sleep on this one. It only takes one.