July 2026

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, the setup of a hanging FROPA, EPAC moisture, mid-level disturbances should automatically raise those red flags. This may not be the last time in this Super El Nino season.

[Ptarmigan]

Prayers for the Hill Country. Tragic.

SE Texas folks need to keep a wary eye on the area of interest in the NE Gulf.
Whatever would try to form should be weak, but synoptic pattern - at this time - again favors a westward track across the northern Gulf.

At a minimum, it could potentially bring another round of heavy tropical rain.

[Stratton20]

This just got pretty interesting. The 00z Ukmet has a strong TS ( 995mb ) due south of New Orleans moving west at the end of its run and it only
goes out 7 days. When that model shows development, this deserves more attention because it usually is very good with tropics

[Rip76]

Interesting indeed.

[Stratton20]

Noaa shifted development zone of the gulf low further west into the gulf, chances up to 30% with recon scheduled for sunday afternoon if needed. 12z Ukmet still has a TS moving west, well south of louisiana. Gotta watch this because if it indeed moves west, the steering pattern is pretty clear with a large ridge centered over the central plains. That kind of easterly steering influence is going to favor a western gulf coast track, including texas should this develop, i normally wouldn’t be concerned about a weak in the gulf, but considering the devastating flooding thats taken place in the hill country, this is something that needs to be watching very carefully, especially since Google deepmind and Euro AIFS ensembles strongly favor a texas “ landfall “ out of this, whatever it may become.

[TexasBreeze]

Nice little swirl west of central Florida currently from the cluster of storms earlier.
Accessing storm 2k sure has been an issue lately...

[Stratton20]

Yup, i thought it was me, storm2k has been crashing a lot today

[biggerbyte]

For heaven sakes. Storm2k now requires a sign in to view anything.

[mcheer23]

For heaven sakes. Storm2k now requires a sign in to view anything.

Cyber attack

[Pas_Bon]

Another heads-up….. Folks in SE Texas need to be ready to get ready at this point.

Let’s see if she can get her act together over the weekend.

This is just my unprofessional opinion, but I have a bit of a sinking feeling right now.

[Stormlover2020]

Don’t think we will get anything out of it, models don’t seem to impress

[jasons2k]

We have 91L

[Cpv17]

Don’t think we will get anything out of it, models don’t seem to impress

I agree. I don’t think it’s anything to worry about right now, but we should continue to keep an eye on it.

[Stratton20]

It is early in the game, hurricane hunters will possibly fly in tomorrow, hurricane models will start running soon. Observing in real time, surface pressures are beginning to fall around the low. Gotta watch this one, shear isnt overly favorable, but its not extremely hostile either.

[Rip76]

Looking better organized.

[DoctorMu]

Probably nothing here, but keep the eyes peeled.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

[Stratton20]

Big key here: If it remains weak, its going to follow the flow around the sub tropical high nosing in from the atlantic, and go into florida. However if it becomes organized into a decent tropical storm. Its going to feel the upper level flow which is being dictated by the high over the central US, that steering pattern would induce a easterly steering motion on the system, potentially threatening lousiana or texas

[Pas_Bon]

Probably nothing here, but keep the eyes peeled.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

I don’t think for a second that it’s nothing. I’m somewhat concerned.