July 2026

[Stratton20]

lovely photo jason! Ive never seen a waterspout in person, but they make for really cool photos!

[DoctorMu]

Cute little waterspout.

Getting a wide gap here between clusters of showers.

[Pas_Bon]

My daughter is at Camp Cho Yeh along Lake Livingston. Does anyone know what the statistics of the severe warned storm is there now?

[Ptarmigan]

Meanwhile, somewhere off the Florida coast, a hint is given to head back to shore…

Cool shot of a waterspout.

[Ptarmigan]

Kelleys Island, Ohio had heavy rain on Sunday night. Some areas got over 17 inches of rain.

Here is a weather station from Kelleys Island. Rainfall intensity was over 9 inches!
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... 07-6/daily

Something that happens more in Texas.

[DoctorMu]

Next week looks unsettled for mid-July. Roll the dice for rain.

[DoctorMu]

60-70% chance Sunday - Tuesday in CLL. I actually feel pretty good about avoiding a bust. We'll see. Been seeing this for awhile.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Deeper tropical moisture will be moving back into the region
today and should provide 30-60% chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Overall coverage
should be highest across the southern half of the region.

- Let`s keep an eye out for even better chances of precipitation
Monday-Tuesday across all of the area. Localized heavy rain
cannot be ruled out.

- Things begin to dry out (and temperatures warm) during the
second half of the work week as higher pressure filters in from
the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

On the back side of the inverted troffiness situated across south
Texas and Mexico, and with a continued southerly llvl flow, deeper
Gulf moisture is set to begin moving back into the upper Texas
coastal waters early this morning and inland during the day. PW`s
should climb into the 1.9-2.2" range by the end of the day. This
should bring an uptick in overall scattered shower & tstm coverage
to the region today...and a bit moreso this weekend as the
tropical airmass remains in place. Precip should mainly be diurnally
driven (increasing development offshore and near the coast late
at night and morning then transitioning inland during the day and
early evening). Not everyone will see rain, and those that do
it`s not currently looking like a whole-day affair. But those
with outdoor plans should plan for some intermittent alternatives.
Temps should be a touch below what we`ve seen the last several
days considering more cloudiness & scattered rain.

Ridge currently centered off the SoCal coast will strengthen and
track across the Rockies and into the nctl US later this weekend
into early next week. Weak troffiness currently seen on water vapor
imagery tracking eastward across the northern Plains will eventually
circle back around and under the ridge axis and toward Texas Monday
and Tuesday. This should further enhance precip coverage those days.
We`ll probably need to keep an eye out for the highest qpf during
that time period as there are some hints of some weak diffluence
aloft and some potentially slower storm motions.

High pressure should expand ssewd across the nctl Gulf states &
southeastern states during the second half of next week and give
the troffiness & deeper moisture over SE Tx a nudge westward.
Wednesday should be somewhat of a transition day with lower, but
still scattered, precip chances. Thursday and Friday we should be
back to our beloved SE TX wx with warmer temps and just some
isolated daily rain chances.

LDavis/47

&&

[DoctorMu]

We'll probably get gapped, but a decent seabreeze. Give me this for the next 5 days and I'll take my chances. The sprinkler system and A/C need a break! We've had upper 90s all week.

[cperk]

Wow the NWS dropped my rain chances Sunday from 20%to80% to 20% what is going on.

[DoctorMu]

Thar she blows!

[Stratton20]

And all the storms went around me on both sides, typical lol

[DoctorMu]

We avoided getting gapped this time as the seabreeze held together. 0.58 inches of liquid gold IMFY.

Looking forward to more through Wednesday.

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Look for scattered to occasionally numerous showers and
thunderstorms Sunday (30-70% chance).

- Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for all of SE Texas Sunday,
and slight risk of excessive rainfall for the majority of SE
Texas on Monday.

- Better chances of widespread precipitation, some possibly heavy at
times, is anticipated Monday-Tuesday.

- A gradual drying/warming trend should take shape heading into
the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight. Expect
activity to be confined to the coast where a pocket of moisture
convergence and CAPE both reside.

Another round of showers and storms is anticipated for Sunday as
we continue to see PWAT values in the 2.0-2.5" range. Expect
showers and storms to increase in coverage during the afternoon
hours as daytime heating kicks in. Additionally, hi- res models
are showing a diffuse backdoor front working its way into the area
from the north.
While, initially, activity will gradually move inland from the
Gulf
--as the diffuse front moves in, expect storm motion to transition
with storms pushing slowly back towards the coast. Sounding
analysis reflects an environment suitable for efficient warm rain
processes, so could see instances of flash flooding with storms
that produce heavier rainfall rates (especially in areas that
have already received decent rainfall).

The wet pattern will continue into next week as SE texas resides
in the southern periphery of an area of high pressure that will
move into the northern CONUS and on the west side of an area of
low pressure in the SE CONUS. 500mb analysis shows a series of
vorticity maxima moving from east to west into our area. As it
interacts with deep moisture, upper-level forcing, and low shear,
expect to see showers and storms become more scattered to numerous
in coverage. This will result in multiple days of at least a
marginal excessive rainfall risk (with Monday featuring a SLIGHT
risk for most of the area). The most favorable timing for
convective development and heavier rainfall will be during the day
with peak heating and the aid of the sea breeze.

The pattern will transition and become less active by Thursday as
hot and dry conditions return to the region. Expect this hotter
and drier pattern to continue into the weekend as high pressure
builds in. While most of the area should remain rain-free,
persistent southerly flow could result in isolated, diurnally-
driven activity along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours.

Bailey

[jasons2k]

Back in Texas. It’s wetter here than in Florida. They need the rain. Glad to see the death ridge hasn’t anchored over Texas yet.