May 2026

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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From Jeff on Facebook

5-23-26 840am

Next strong disturbance moving out of MX toward the region. From late morning into the afternoon hours additional thunderstorms likely to develop with heating behind this mornings activity.

High resolution models favor the I-10 corridor southward toward the coast….could see some 2-5 inch amounts so flash flooding will be possible. High resolution guidance has a fairly sharp cut off to the north.
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Sat May 23, 2026 7:50 am With time to recharge the atmosphere amd this coming, it should be an eventful day
Daytime heating has an opportunity to light the fuse.

Most of the action should be south of Hwy 1*5...even south of I-10!
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DoctorMu
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Extensive showers headed toward Houston and Galveston:


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tireman4
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Jeff Lindner on Facebook

5-23-26 1025am

Thunderstorms likely to develop over the next few hours in the blue circled area as a strong disturbance approaches from the west.

Heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will be likely with this activity.
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JDsGN
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Man this whole past week of high rain chances and projected 5-6” rain totals started out strong with that surprise system Tuesday morning. 1.41” up to Wednesday then nothing else. Woke up to thunder and lighting this morningbut got missed. This next round appears to go south of us as well but we will see. Good to see Corpus and the surrounding areas getting some much needed rain though
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tireman4
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From Jeff Lindner on Facebook

5-23-26 1235pm

Flood advisory until 345pm in the blue circled area. Slow moving heavy thunderstorms producing excessive rainfall are developing in this area.

Flash flooding will be possible
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Stratton20
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wet weather and cooler conditions ( several fronts ) look to extend well into the first week of june and perhaps beyond, no complaints at all!
Cpv17
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JDsGN wrote: Sat May 23, 2026 11:57 am Man this whole past week of high rain chances and projected 5-6” rain totals started out strong with that surprise system Tuesday morning. 1.41” up to Wednesday then nothing else. Woke up to thunder and lighting this morningbut got missed. This next round appears to go south of us as well but we will see. Good to see Corpus and the surrounding areas getting some much needed rain though
I’m with you. It has been a big letdown for the most part so far, IMO. Hopefully today makes up for it.
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tireman4
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It is really coming down in Humble. More training behind it
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davidiowx
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It’s really coming down over here and it is almost dark outside. Pretty impressive for 4pm. Mowed the grass during the lull yesterday, thank goodness!
cperk
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I've picked up over 5 inches in the last 3 days.
Cromagnum
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We got ours earlier this week, but our local clueless mets were saying Saturday was the big flood day. Only missed by a couple hundred miles.
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Rip76
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Really coming down in the Woodlands now.
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DoctorMu
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A bit of consolidation and backbuilding up here. After only 0.2 in. of rain over the last 2 days, we have have a pretty strong cell over us.

A flood advisory has been issued.

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jasons2k
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I thought it was supposed to flood all weekend? We decided not to have a pool party today because it was guaranteed to be a washout??
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Sun May 24, 2026 9:16 am I thought it was supposed to flood all weekend? We decided not to have a pool party today because it was guaranteed to be a washout??
Nah, Herzog said on Friday that the main event would likely be on Saturday and not much would happen on Sunday. Should be mainly dry till Wednesday.
davidiowx
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Yea this was really poorly forecasted. Yesterday the NWS literally continued the flood watch through Monday just to cancel it later. Quite odd. I don’t think I’d consider this a “bust” per se, as I got almost 4” of rain over the past week. However, this was not handled well from a forecasting perspective even as late as yesterday.
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tireman4
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Let me try this from another perspective. This concurrent weather pattern has been tricky from the start. Even the mesos were having issues with vortices that were forming and moving along the CWA. The Saurday morning MCV proved that. Mother Naure will not behave they way we want her to.
cperk
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tireman4 wrote: Sun May 24, 2026 12:18 pm Let me try this from another perspective. This concurrent weather pattern has been tricky from the start. Even the mesos were having issues with vortices that were forming and moving along the CWA. The Saurday morning MCV proved that. Mother Naure will not behave they way we want her to.
Agreed many forecasters said this was not gonna be an easy forecast
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Sun May 24, 2026 11:04 am Yea this was really poorly forecasted. Yesterday the NWS literally continued the flood watch through Monday just to cancel it later. Quite odd. I don’t think I’d consider this a “bust” per se, as I got almost 4” of rain over the past week. However, this was not handled well from a forecasting perspective even as late as yesterday.
The widespread 5-10” definitely didn’t happen. I ended up with 3.27” altogether. The 5-10” totals were mostly just in a few isolated spots.
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