May 2026
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5768
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Saw sargent got close to 9 inches just alone today, safe to say its easy to see why im concerned about the flooding threat growing considering this is just day 1 of a very long stretch of wet weather, 12z GFS stays active all of next week- weekend and even going into the following week
-
DoctorMu
- Posts: 7928
- Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
- Location: College Station
- Contact:
A late forming bow echo and MCS gave us 0.91 inches of rain last night.
The atmosphere looks pretty worked over today. A break before more possible action on Thursday.
Texas summer: Yes, it will be hot. Will it rain, especially up in the NW territories? That is the question.
The moisture is there in the eastern Pacific. Will we retain the conveyor belt? Or will it shut off hard like in 2023?
The atmosphere looks pretty worked over today. A break before more possible action on Thursday.
Texas summer: Yes, it will be hot. Will it rain, especially up in the NW territories? That is the question.
The moisture is there in the eastern Pacific. Will we retain the conveyor belt? Or will it shut off hard like in 2023?
-
Cpv17
- Posts: 7036
- Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
- Location: El Campo/Wharton
- Contact:
Flood watches just issued for the area till Monday.
Well for places S of I-10 anyway. I’m sure other counties will be included soon.
Well for places S of I-10 anyway. I’m sure other counties will be included soon.
-
Cromagnum
- Posts: 3064
- Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
- Location: Georgetown
- Contact:
Storm last night had hands.
-
Pas_Bon
- Posts: 937
- Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:58 am
- Location: League City, TX
- Contact:
-
cperk
- Posts: 853
- Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:09 pm
- Location: Richmond
- Contact:
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 7036
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 7036
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
-
suprdav2
- Posts: 138
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:39 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
Looks like most of the rain will be south of I-10 today
-
Cromagnum
- Posts: 3064
- Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
- Location: Georgetown
- Contact:
-
Cpv17
- Posts: 7036
- Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
- Location: El Campo/Wharton
- Contact:
Don’t really see much happening till Saturday. Rest of today and tomorrow look quiet for the most part.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5768
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GFS continues to show a concerning upper air pattern next week with the upper low this weekend merging with a trough that slowly moves in from the west on monday, ridging builds over this system and traps/ stalls the low in west texas all of next week and into the weekend, if the euro even hints at that, we could be looking at even more days with perhaps more widespread and organized heavy rains, thus magnifying the flooding threat, either way we are locked into this pattern for the rest of the month at least. CMC starting to hint a what GFS is showing
-
DoctorMu
- Posts: 7928
- Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
- Location: College Station
- Contact:
Action lurking in the Hill country. As the storms move east, we'll see if they hold together much past sunset.
-
SLM87TX
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:17 am
- Contact:
Pretty big system, might have small cool pocket to keep it alive for a while. North of Huntsville we only got about 0.1 inches from this system.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5768
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
yeah that line is not making it here lol, its falling apart quickly
-
DoctorMu
- Posts: 7928
- Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
- Location: College Station
- Contact:
It's a definite maybe in CLL. It looks tough now, but just waiting for the outflow and collapse.
There is a couple of small cells with a hail core - we shall see.
Only about 0.13 inches earlier in the day with a brief shower.
edit: There's an outflow on the south side near Schulenberg.
There is a couple of small cells with a hail core - we shall see.
Only about 0.13 inches earlier in the day with a brief shower.
edit: There's an outflow on the south side near Schulenberg.
-
DoctorMu
- Posts: 7928
- Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
- Location: College Station
- Contact:
Wow - TWC is really betting low on rain chances this holiday weekend (20-40%)
NOAA is clocking in at 50% for MD and 80% Sat. and Sunday.
Be on the lookout as most TV stations and NOAA will have a skeleton crew on duty.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The Flood Watch has been expanded to now include Polk, Trinity,
San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, and Washington counties and is now
in effect through late Monday.
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the
holiday weekend and into next week. Some may be strong at times.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible leading to the potential of
flash flooding.
- Mariners should be prepared for the multiple rounds of storms.
Winds and seas will be higher in and near storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
As we head into the late afternoon hours, focus turns towards
potential for thunderstorm development, especially during peak
daytime heating. Current thinking is for the convective
temperature to be reached somewhere in the 4 to 7 pm time frame.
The severe weather risk is low, but any strong storms could be
capable of producing gusts up to 40 mph.
The forecast for this Memorial Day weekend remains on track.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring multiple vorticity
maxes/disturbances across the region tonight into at least early
next week. At lower levels, persistent south-souteast flow continues
to filter in a warmer and very moist airmass further inland. In
fact, PWAT values are near or above the 90th percentile of
climatology for this time of year. With that being said, the
environment continues to be favorable for periods of showers and
thunderstorms, some locally moderate to heavy. Confidence is high
that periods of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
region from Saturday through early next week. However, confidence in
specific details regarding the timing and location of the heaviest
rain amounts is still moderate, given the nature of these types of
mesoscale features.
Speaking of confidence, some hi-res guidance brings an MCSs close to
our region overnight through Saturday morning. Confidence in its
occurrence is low to moderate; however, the environment continues to
remain favorable for any convection. The passage of this MCS could
either lower PoPs on Saturday or enhance the activity during the day
when combined with daytime heating and any outflow boundary (- ies).
The next best round of showers and storms returns on Sunday with
another MCS moving in from our south. Additional rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches can be expected through late Monday. Isolated higher
amounts of 5 to 6 inches will be possible. Rainfall rates are
expected to peak in the 3 to 4 inches per hour range in the heaviest
downpours.
The Flood Watch has now been expanded to include counties north of I-
10 and is now in effect until late Monday night. WPC highlights this
threat in their Day 2 and 3 excessive rainfall outlook with a slight
risk (level 2 of 4). In terms of severe weather, some of these
storms could become strong to marginally severe on Saturday if the
environment remains unstable in the afternoon. Damaging winds will
be the main risk.
Forecast rainfall amounts have trended lower for Monday. While the
upper level pattern remains active with continued southwesterly flow
aloft, most models are suggesting some drier air will filter in from
our west. Will continue with some diurnally driven isolated to
scattered activity mainly for the afternoon and evening. The next
period to monitor will be Tuesday into Wednesday as another strong
disturbance moves through potentially bringing more rounds of
moderate to heavy rain. We will provide more details on this system
earlier in the week.
JM
.
NOAA is clocking in at 50% for MD and 80% Sat. and Sunday.
Be on the lookout as most TV stations and NOAA will have a skeleton crew on duty.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The Flood Watch has been expanded to now include Polk, Trinity,
San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, and Washington counties and is now
in effect through late Monday.
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the
holiday weekend and into next week. Some may be strong at times.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible leading to the potential of
flash flooding.
- Mariners should be prepared for the multiple rounds of storms.
Winds and seas will be higher in and near storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
As we head into the late afternoon hours, focus turns towards
potential for thunderstorm development, especially during peak
daytime heating. Current thinking is for the convective
temperature to be reached somewhere in the 4 to 7 pm time frame.
The severe weather risk is low, but any strong storms could be
capable of producing gusts up to 40 mph.
The forecast for this Memorial Day weekend remains on track.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring multiple vorticity
maxes/disturbances across the region tonight into at least early
next week. At lower levels, persistent south-souteast flow continues
to filter in a warmer and very moist airmass further inland. In
fact, PWAT values are near or above the 90th percentile of
climatology for this time of year. With that being said, the
environment continues to be favorable for periods of showers and
thunderstorms, some locally moderate to heavy. Confidence is high
that periods of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
region from Saturday through early next week. However, confidence in
specific details regarding the timing and location of the heaviest
rain amounts is still moderate, given the nature of these types of
mesoscale features.
Speaking of confidence, some hi-res guidance brings an MCSs close to
our region overnight through Saturday morning. Confidence in its
occurrence is low to moderate; however, the environment continues to
remain favorable for any convection. The passage of this MCS could
either lower PoPs on Saturday or enhance the activity during the day
when combined with daytime heating and any outflow boundary (- ies).
The next best round of showers and storms returns on Sunday with
another MCS moving in from our south. Additional rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches can be expected through late Monday. Isolated higher
amounts of 5 to 6 inches will be possible. Rainfall rates are
expected to peak in the 3 to 4 inches per hour range in the heaviest
downpours.
The Flood Watch has now been expanded to include counties north of I-
10 and is now in effect until late Monday night. WPC highlights this
threat in their Day 2 and 3 excessive rainfall outlook with a slight
risk (level 2 of 4). In terms of severe weather, some of these
storms could become strong to marginally severe on Saturday if the
environment remains unstable in the afternoon. Damaging winds will
be the main risk.
Forecast rainfall amounts have trended lower for Monday. While the
upper level pattern remains active with continued southwesterly flow
aloft, most models are suggesting some drier air will filter in from
our west. Will continue with some diurnally driven isolated to
scattered activity mainly for the afternoon and evening. The next
period to monitor will be Tuesday into Wednesday as another strong
disturbance moves through potentially bringing more rounds of
moderate to heavy rain. We will provide more details on this system
earlier in the week.
JM
.