May 2026

[tireman4]

From Jeff on Facebook

5-10-26 720pm

Strong to severe thunderstorms may increase in intensity and coverage over the blue circled area into the early evening hours as Southwest moving outflow boundary interacts with a very unstable airmass

Severe hail will be the main threat with this activity.

A line of severe thunderstorms is likely to approach this area in the 1000pm-midnight range from the northwest with the potential for damaging winds to 75mph

[tireman4]

From Jeff on Facebook

5-10-26 800pm

Severe thunderstorm warning for northern Montgomery County and western Walker County.

Severe thunderstorm over SW Walker County is moving slowly north with a large hail threat.

Cell in northern Montgomery County is moving ESE with a large hail threat.

Chaotic cell motions being driven by low level boundary collisions.

[DoctorMu]

From Jeff Lindner on Facebook

5-10-26 630pm

Severe thunderstorm warning for northern Liberty, eastern San Jacinto, and Polk Counties until 700pm

Large hail
Is possible with these storms as they slowly move northward

We're getting a storm sandwich between the streamer cells and the MSC descending from the north. Nothing severe here yet...

The NWS state-wide warnings page has disappeared or at least access. Anyone have a link?

[DoctorMu]

Ruh Roh. A couple of hail core cells around Georgetown and Temple headed this way. We'll see if they stay severe.

[Cpv17]

HRRR is now showing this holding together somewhat as it passes through.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Weimar looks to get popped in a hour or two. Bring it!

[DoctorMu]

HRRR is now showing this holding together somewhat as it passes through.

The line is getting it's stuff together. The SW side of the Houston area - San Antonio to Columbus and possible the southern limb of the line could approach and pass Victoria. I'm not sure about the east side past The Woodlands - could weakened after that. I think everyone will see some rain.

[Ptarmigan]

The storms are getting closer.

[Ptarmigan]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 5:00 AM.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... rm%20watch

Code: Select all

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC007-015-025-039-041-051-057-089-123-127-131-157-167-175-185-
201-239-249-255-273-283-285-297-311-321-339-355-391-409-469-473-
477-479-481-111000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0198.260511T0330Z-260511T1000Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARANSAS              AUSTIN              BEE
BRAZORIA             BRAZOS              BURLESON
CALHOUN              COLORADO            DEWITT
DIMMIT               DUVAL               FORT BEND
GALVESTON            GOLIAD              GRIMES
HARRIS               JACKSON             JIM WELLS
KARNES               KLEBERG             LAVACA
LA SALLE             LIVE OAK            MATAGORDA
MCMULLEN             MONTGOMERY          NUECES
REFUGIO              SAN PATRICIO        VICTORIA
WALLER               WASHINGTON          WEBB
WHARTON
$$

[Ptarmigan]

Weimar looks to get popped in a hour or two. Bring it!

Looks to be a rain event.

[Pas_Bon]

The way that overnight line split just before League City was all too familiar. Ugh.

[DoctorMu]

1.89 inches here last night...

73°F and lower DP today. I'll take it.

Love what Euro-AI is spitting out. FROPAs and occasionally cooler weather.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=132

[Ptarmigan]

1.89 inches here last night...

73°F and lower DP today. I'll take it.

Love what Euro-AI is spitting out. FROPAs and occasionally cooler weather.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=132

I looked further with the Euro-AI and does have more cooler weather into even Memorial Day. Forecast models changes, so take it with a grain of salt.

[DoctorMu]

1.89 inches here last night...

73°F and lower DP today. I'll take it.

Love what Euro-AI is spitting out. FROPAs and occasionally cooler weather.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=132

I looked further with the Euro-AI and does have more cooler weather into even Memorial Day. Forecast models changes, so take it with a grain of salt.

As long as the salt is on the rim of my glass with a margarita inside! It's high time we had a Floridays summer.

https://youtu.be/IjEuW9HPXIE?si=fBy0j9erBf2y0g_P

[Stratton20]

Euro has been consistently showing an absolute gully washer of a pattern across central and se texas the 18th-26th, very stormy pattern and some big excessive rainfall totals, CPC definitely starting to buy into the risk