May 2026

[Cpv17]

The WPC has now cut back on totals as well. Probably cuz the mesos don’t show much.

[DoctorMu]

Cool and cloudy up here: 68°F with 55°F DP. Enjoying one last day. There are some showers moving through - although I expect any measurable rain to be north of here due to the trough.

Assuming a turnaround on winds tomorrow.

lol This is one uncertain forecast!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[DoctorMu]

Cool and cloudy up here: 68°F with 55°F DP. Enjoying one last day. There are some showers moving through - although I expect any measurable rain to be north of here due to the trough.

Assuming a turnaround on winds tomorrow.

lol This is one uncertain forecast!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Cpv17]

Yeah, tomorrow is shaping up to be a pretty difficult forecast.

[Stratton20]

Anyone else having issues with this site? seems like its been pretty up and down lately

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah, tomorrow is shaping up to be a pretty difficult forecast.

Forecast has uncertainty. There could be surprises.

[Cpv17]

Anyone else having issues with this site? seems like its been pretty up and down lately

Yep, this site and Storm2k have both been acting up for at least a month now. They seem to alternate with each other. Very slow load times. Here lately it’s been this site acting up and S2K has been fine.

As far as today goes, I still don’t see anything on the mesos to warrant a high chance of rain. This is going to be an interesting day to see how this plays out. I truly don’t know.

[tireman4]

I see the NWS has parts of the CWA at 40 percent and some parts at 50 percent. I would keep it that way (IMHO). This is a tricky tricky forecast. Some folks will get rain, where others might not. Those that do, it could come in serious amounts. I think the best view is to be aware and make sure to keep up with the latest forecasts. I can tell you the ingredients are there for some torrential downpours ( PWATS are at 1.75). Looking at the northern parts of our area, there are serious rainfall amounts being amassed.

[Cpv17]

I see the NWS has parts of the CWA at 40 percent and some parts at 50 percent. I would keep it that way (IMHO). This is a tricky tricky forecast. Some folks will get rain, where others might not. Those that do, it could come in serious amounts. I think the best view is to be aware and make sure to keep up with the latest forecasts. I can tell you the ingredients are there for some torrential downpours ( PWATS are at 1.75). Looking at the northern parts of our area, there are serious rainfall amounts being amassed.

Completely agree.

[Cpv17]

And just like that, the WPC now only has us getting around half an inch over the next 7 days. Definitely looking like a pretty big bust.

[DoctorMu]

Bust here so far, but there could be an MCS rapidly descending from the north tonight. It will still probably die at the Brazos Co. line. Another MCS from the southern Hill Country could move toward Houston.

[Brazoriatx979]

Looking like another bust today as well

[DoctorMu]

Maybe Sunday night. Maybe.

[DoctorMu]

Rain with the late season FROPA Sunday night?

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms and heavy rains possible this afternoon
with a lull in rain chances tonight through Sunday morning.

- Cold front pushes through SE Texas Sunday evening through early
Monday morning. Severe storms possible, especially along the
front.

- High pressure and calmer weather throughout much of the upcoming
work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Several showers and storms are ongoing over the Gulf this afternoon,
tracking with the passing shortwave moving over the area. Any
additional convection should track eastward with this shortwave
trough, resulting in rain chances decreasing from west to east later
this evening. However, there is still some modest instability
present, broadly higher inland and lower closer to the coast/over
the gulf waters. The apex of bulk shear is progged to trail behind
the main region of lift, but there`s still a modest 25-40 knots that
will overlap with some of our convection this afternoon. SPC
maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of Severe Storms this
afternoon with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
concerns. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible too in some
of these storms too. Severe threat is isolated, and convection
overall is looking fairly sparse inland, though that may change as
skies are beginning to scatter out.

Should see a lull in rains tonight into portions of Sunday as the
shortwave aloft continues east. Onshore flow should be back in
place, but still only for a brief time, as a cold front should push
into SE Texas late Sunday night. A positive tilt midlevel shortwave
trough will also be moving over the northern half of the state at
this time, helping supply additional lift with the FROPA. In
addition, a small area of diffluence also appears to form in the
upper levels between the shortwave trough and the subtropical jet,
around portions of central/eastern Texas, which may further
enhance lift. Instability looks broadly better across the board,
some areas progged to get around 2000-3000 ML CAPE with even
higher values of MU CAPE possible. Midlevel lapse rates are still
generally favorable too, around 7-7.8 J/KG early in the evening
with TEI values near 26. Bulk shear near 35 knots, cloud layer
shear around 80 knots, and modest DCAPE ~900 J/KG will also be
present as well. CAP weakens in the afternoon, so some convection
ahead of the front will be possible, though the main bulk of
storms should come in the late evening as the front pushes into
the Brazos Valley and eventually off the coast by Monday morning.

SPC has our northern tier of counties under a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of Severe Weather for Sunday/early Monday morning with a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) extending southward past the I-10
corridor. Damaging winds and hail remain the primary hazards with
these storms. The severe weather threat begins Sunday afternoon
with a few isolated pop-up storms possible, then reaches it`s
apex during the evening hours as the front pushes into the Brazos
Valley. After midnight, the chances of severe weather should be
declining as the front pushes south, fully coming to an end later
in the morning on Monday as storms push out of the area.

Monday should see breezy, cooler and drier weather as high pressure
fills over the area in the wake of the cold front. A mid to upper
level ridge will also build across the Four Corners region, ushering
in a period of benign weather through the next several days. This
ridge aloft should shift easterly, along with surface high pressure,
allowing onshore winds to return around Tuesday night. This will
allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid week.
Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s (isolated 90s possible) with
lows in the 60s/70s. Around Thursday, the ridge aloft will weaken
slightly as vorticity impulses & a shortwave trough push in from the
Great Basin. The ridge itself will also shift east of the area on
Friday, weakening it`s influence over the area. Still, onshore flow
and warm wx should remain in place with slim rain chances through
the end of the work week.

03

&&