January 2026

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Nuby33
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 8:42 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 8:38 am
don wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 8:23 am I’m getting a little more concerned about Southeast Texas now. The HRRR along with other models show thunder sleet/thunder freezing rain over southeast Texas Sunday morning.

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That would be an amazing thing to witness...
December 1989, Longview, TX… that moment made me a weather geek!

2 inches in 15 minutes in a severe Thunder sleet cell. Then 6 inches of Thunder snow in about 3 hours.

It was amazing!
I experienced that as well.. in Central Texas. Got about 2 inches of sleet in like 15 minutes.. thunder..lightning.. it was crazy. Will never forget it
jabcwb2
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Nuby33 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:08 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 8:42 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 8:38 am

That would be an amazing thing to witness...
December 1989, Longview, TX… that moment made me a weather geek!

2 inches in 15 minutes in a severe Thunder sleet cell. Then 6 inches of Thunder snow in about 3 hours.

It was amazing!
I experienced that as well.. in Central Texas. Got about 2 inches of sleet in like 15 minutes.. thunder..lightning.. it was crazy. Will never forget it
What do the numbers next to the colors on this map indicate? Thank you!
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jasons2k
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Thunder-snow has to be the most unusual weather phenomenon I’ve ever experienced. The 1993 “Storm of the Century - Superstorm” in Birmingham. 16” on the ridge top. The online videos just can’t capture the way the whole world lights up like daytime at night, in the snow when there is lightning. And then the sound - the sound of the thunder is this muffling sound like shoes in a dryer. I can’t think of a better way to describe it, but it’s something else.

Thundersleet is cool too, and the sound of the sleet is unmistakable. Good chance we will see some Thundersleet around SE Texas on Sunday.
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DoctorMu
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Nuby33 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 6:04 am
txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 5:58 am For metro Houston, still looking good. NWS says little to no ice accumulation, with tight window for freezing rain between 3 and 9 am on Sunday. All cold rain before and after. Channel 13 also limits freezing rain window to Sunday morning (60% chance).
My forecast has progressively gotten worse per NWS..

Now expecting .3 inches of ice accumulation and .5 inch sleet accumulation.. and the temps keep dropping each time. 242 and 45 area
As expected significant impacts down to NW Harris Co. Some freezing rain late Satruday night to the coast. RAised highways in Houston on Sunday morning could be a problem.

Single digit lows now expected for CLL. Buckle up.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:30 am Thunder-snow has to be the most unusual weather phenomenon I’ve ever experienced. The 1993 “Storm of the Century - Superstorm” in Birmingham. 16” on the ridge top. The online videos just can’t capture the way the whole world lights up like daytime at night, in the snow when there is lightning. And then the sound - the sound of the thunder is this muffling sound like shoes in a dryer. I can’t think of a better way to describe it, but it’s something else.

Thundersleet is cool too, and the sound of the sleet is unmistakable. Good chance we will see some Thundersleet around SE Texas on Sunday.
Saturday night's alright for fighting.
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DoctorMu
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Nuby33 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:08 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 8:42 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 8:38 am

That would be an amazing thing to witness...
December 1989, Longview, TX… that moment made me a weather geek!

2 inches in 15 minutes in a severe Thunder sleet cell. Then 6 inches of Thunder snow in about 3 hours.

It was amazing!
I experienced that as well.. in Central Texas. Got about 2 inches of sleet in like 15 minutes.. thunder..lightning.. it was crazy. Will never forget it
That will mean potential rapid and heavy rates of sleet and freezing late Saturday night.

Sunday, bloody Sunday

As predicted, CLL is in for 60-72 hours of freezing or below freezing temps. I'm going with 20° down to 8° from Saturday night to Monday at noon...and remaining in the 20s or below until Tuesday about noon..
Cpv17
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I wonder when the watches will get upgraded to warnings….
Brazoriatx979
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probably later today
Stratton20
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I wonder though, if we get a heavy burst or band of precipitation to develop across se texas, would that be enough to help cool the column just enough to possibly switch over to sleet quicker?
Cpv17
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:54 am probably later today
I’m thinking it should be any minute now.
TexasBreeze
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The more heavier precip brings down the warmer air from the warm nose above if it is much warmer. It would cool don the warm layer after the flow changes on the back side. Maybe the best period for heavier sleet is the back side.
Ice accumulates better if it is about 27 or lower, but sleet cools the ground faster too.
Stratton20
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For next weekend, but dear lord GFS and CMC……
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Brazoriatx979
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:37 am For next weekend, but dear lord GFS and CMC……
is that a gulf low developing?
Stormlover2020
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One weekend at a time, let’s worry about this weekend
Stratton20
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12z Euro is on board next weekend for a snow/sleet storm across se texas, crazy times ahead folks
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 11:59 am 12z Euro is on board next weekend for a snow/sleet storm across se texas, crazy times ahead folks
Bring it on baby!!
Nuby33
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My local point forecast on the NWS website is varying wildly.. every hour or two I look at it, the temps and precip amounts change by 4 or 5 degrees and .2 or more ice
Stratton20
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Cpv17 and it has support from the EP, 24/50 (48%) have some sort of snow in se texas, thats actually pretty darn good support for 9 days out
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:10 am I wonder though, if we get a heavy burst or band of precipitation to develop across se texas, would that be enough to help cool the column just enough to possibly switch over to sleet quicker?
I'd expect those bands of Thunder sleet Saturday evening. The Aggie game against South Carolina has been moved up to noon.

Back in the Old North State we had a name for this kind of weather: February.
Cpv17
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Winter storm warnings are out now for SETX. There we go folks, game on.
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