January 2026

[Stratton20]

Cant go into more detail, but their appears to be growing support for yet another winter storm around the 29th-30th with another true plunge of arctic air

[Cpv17]

End of the month continues to look interesting as well. Pattern seems to be loaded.

[Ptarmigan]

I think the forecast models are underestimating what would happen in the Houston area. I have seen this happen before.

[Brazoriatx979]

Not suree what happened but on the grid for hou/galv. It went from freezing rain to just rain all weekend.

Starting to believe this will be a non issue for me

[DoctorMu]

I don't know about the tropics, the way they handled Beryl was terrible...

This board was far more accurate about Beryl.

SCW and HGX convinced TAMU to hold classes in 4 hours of 40+ mph sustained winds and inches of rain during Beryl. I held my class online.

What do you teach?

I was asked to come back not too long ago

Biomechanics, Physiology. We do some work for NASA, muscular dystrophy. Some aging stuff.

Saturday evening is our chance for Thundersleet!

Getting supplies tomorrow am. Space heaters ready. Fireplace OK. Gas stove. Getting the checklist and checking it twice.

[Goomba]

Not suree what happened but on the grid for hou/galv. It went from freezing rain to just rain all weekend.

Starting to believe this will be a non issue for me

Same for me in Beaumont. NWS was showing 80% freezing rain Saturday night and 50% freezing rain Sunday and now it just says rain, but with similar temperatures.

Strangely, this is the reason per the discussion:

"Still, all areas are expected
to be above freezing throughout the daytime hours on Saturday,
meaning threats for winter precip have fallen out of the forecast
for this time period."

The highs for Saturday fluctuated between 42° and 52° while they WERE forecasting wintry precipitation Saturday night and Sunday, so how can that be the reason?

A cold rain is much better than freezing rain for everyone, but I just don't understand that reasoning and would rather people be prepared and not think we're in the clear, if we may not be.

[djmike]

I’m in Beaumont too. NWS have a day crew and a night crew so opinions vary. I’ve seen this numerous times. I bet come morning it’ll be back to showing freezing rain again.

[biggerbyte]

I’m in Beaumont too. NWS have a day crew and a night crew so opinions vary. I’ve seen this numerous times. I bet come morning it’ll be back to showing freezing rain again.

Maybe. We said all along to give it until Thursday night to make a call. I can tell you at this juncture I'm not as concerned for my area. Points north.. Oh my. We will see. Things can flip on a dime around here.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Still in my forecast from the NWS.

[walsean1]

Keep in mind, it’s just Thursday and these Winter watches were posted. Jeff Linder mentioned in his last update that these Arctic air masses are often underestimated by computer models. Any light ice on roadway will shut down the area, and this has happened in SE Texas with less fanfare on many occasions. Wet roads will create an ice rink on all overpasses, flyovers, and bridges once temps are under freezing let alone falling precipitation which is expected to occur mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Let’s hope it is the best case scenario and not what is expected in N Texas

[Nuby33]

The models lose the cold shallow arctic air in this time frame every single time. No surprise there

[Brazoriatx979]

Even with the hurricane data in with the new model runs seems like Houston metro will maybe escape...those to the north and west will get it but from metro Houston south it doesn't seem like much of anything just a cold rain which is obviously good. Atleast thats what im taking away with the runs so far with the new data

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner

[jabcwb2]

No doubt it's going to get ridiculously cold, I am prepared for that, but happy dancing the lowest end of freezing rain is indicated for my area with what you all are saying. Too many BIG trees around and I was petrified the power would go out. My roommate provides security for centerpoint and I couldn't imagine having to drive to assigned location in freezing rain with an inch of ice on the roads.

*****Adding: this forum is THE BEST at helping us plan and prepare. I know you pros will get very busy soon. Just wanted to say thank you for all you do.

[Cromagnum]

So is this normal models poorly modeling the arctic cold, or did something drastic change?

[jasons2k]

Not suree what happened but on the grid for hou/galv. It went from freezing rain to just rain all weekend.

Starting to believe this will be a non issue for me

Same for me in Beaumont. NWS was showing 80% freezing rain Saturday night and 50% freezing rain Sunday and now it just says rain, but with similar temperatures.

Strangely, this is the reason per the discussion:

"Still, all areas are expected
to be above freezing throughout the daytime hours on Saturday,
meaning threats for winter precip have fallen out of the forecast
for this time period."

The highs for Saturday fluctuated between 42° and 52° while they WERE forecasting wintry precipitation Saturday night and Sunday, so how can that be the reason?

A cold rain is much better than freezing rain for everyone, but I just don't understand that reasoning and would rather people be prepared and not think we're in the clear, if we may not be.

Careful when interpreting “high” and “low” temperatures. “Saturday” on your weather app is midnight to 11:59 the next night. A “49” showing for Saturday is most likely at midnight with temps falling after that.

For NWS forecasts, the actual text is more important than the raw numbers.

[Nuby33]

So is this normal models poorly modeling the arctic cold, or did something drastic change?

Normal models handling shallow arctic air poorly

[Cpv17]

My forecasted low for Monday morning is 18°F.

Also, the end of next week looks really cold as well! Ensembles back it up too.

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner

[Brazoriatx979]

I'm over this and it hasn't even started yet, at least I won't have to go to the grocery store, but work on Monday even though I work for a water company that will likely freeze lol